Hi all fellow price pupils
I'm curious...
Now please don't get me wrong, but why do you trust computer code / MQ4L more than your own eyes?
I just find it a bit odd that people would go to great lengths to automate even the most simple thing. It sort of gives me the impression that this sort of aid or crutch is something people believe will give them some sort of extra edge over the market.
Of course it might speed up things, of course having "markers" might highlight places on charts, but to be honest, I am still a real beginner and it takes me about 30 seconds to look at my daily chart and point out whether or not the protruding bars at the outer ranges are or are not pin bars as per set criteria...
Just seems odd to me that one would spend the time coding or contemplating the criteria instead of putting the same amount of time to just visually studying the charts to ones greater personal benefit, especially if the pin alone doesn't say much about the surroundings and it's chance of success given s/r and pivotal zones that might lie around the corner.
It's just that furthering of self and self reliance is something important to me, which is why I even bother "arguing" in this sort of way
On another note: Welcome to the club TRO, I hope you'll find this a nicer place than all the others you've mentioned, god knows I try to help to make it so =)
Let's all try to pin things down best as we can and good luck to all of your trading,
You draw Fibs from the bottom/top to the top/bottom of the current swing high/low. I recommend reading some forex basics and checking out some training videos on it, they should be found everywhere on the web
My pins and needles, no strings attached....be careful, price is totally whacky what with the EJ discussion (usually has proportional correlation with USDJPY) and USD strength becoming disputed again....
Just saw that AUDUSD had some nice examples on 4h and had some questions for James as well concerning the TBL / TBH....
In the attached example a 4h pin is followed by a TBL...obviously the pin overpowers the TBL and pushes price up...Now I just wonder about TBL/TBH because a lot of times it just seems very random whether price will move past the low / high or just drop off after all, even if there wasn't a DBHLC/DBLHC to signal that...so how do I know the pullback is really a drop or really a pullback to push past the low/high?
The classic "which way are we going?" question remains if you want to enter on a retrace instead of a break, because I never feel confident enough to know which of the two will happen...
This one with the pin was obvious, of course...
Just wanted to show how some stuff shown in the thread can work real nice even on 4h, but I still strongly recommend using daily instead.
Six bars to the left of the wide outside bar is a pin bar no one spoke of. I has a long tail and stands above previous prices BUT was a loser - double bar highs followed then the massive outside bar. Anyone get hit by that reversal or did you have stops set (where)?
Or is the above not a valid Pin Bar James (anybody)?
In case you meant this one, here's how it woulda possibly gone in my mind...see attached chart.
Stop is set at the bottom of the pin bar itself(correct me if I'm wrong).
(I also have a running theory that you can play the opposite side break of a pin bar, too...looking into that)
Not all pins HAVE to work, especially not on a small timeframe like 4h.
And agreed Bundyraider, the bars I labeled as PB weren't good examples, but to quote James "not all pins are created equal"
They sometimes can be quite corrupted but sometimes only due to a bad "cutoff" timewise. I.e. the phenomenon you described(moving too far then retreating in panic) can be seen on a smaller timeframe quite well, but doesn't reflect that cleanly on a higher one. I always try to "zoom in" on events when checking out pins and other price action to see "where we are" and "what really happened".
From a DBLHC on 4h we now have the same on daily and if we keep our levels it's gonna be the same picture on weekly, too.....Roughly on the 50/61.8%, too, this might go a bit more than just 60 pips, and even if not, it's already made more than its stop size...
Hi all,
just wanted to post a chart to see what the concensus might be on it.
Dont know if this will work but i will try anyway
cheers
geoff
Hi Geoff,
would love to help and give my opinion but the chart is too small. If you can try to make a more zoomed in snapshot of the bar and the area surrounding it (and preferrably the name of what it is, too *wink*).
without wanting to spam across threads I just wanted to mention this thread with a weekly outlook on price action that I occasionally post to. Not sure if I should have posted into the Forex News and Analysis section instead, but as I don't do charts or have a professional background I guess I am caught a bit in between worlds.
It's mostly something I do for myself so that I may better learn it all and get a better handle on things, not something you should put real money on.
Nonetheless, it might prove interesting for some so I thought I'd point it out.
If it's revealing too much info that it shouldn't like PF stuff or similiar then please tell me and I will restrict the posts accordingly and leave that out.
So far I think it's all stuff you could learn from this thread and the "trading naked" webpage and I hope it helps to inspire people to learn more.
just wanted to comment on the 4h Pin people pointed out, I didn't take it.
First of all the daily bearish bar and weekly didn't agree, second I see cable wreck pins even on daily at times and that 4h there just didn't seem very convincing.
Using stops just under the pins nose you would most likely have been stopped out just before a 90+ ongoing rise atm.
Cable has proven to be very difficult to trade due to it exaggeration reactions a lot of times (moving 10 past a stop only to then move as it is supposed to. Using huge stops instead to hope for survival doesn't seem a smart MM choice).
See attached chart on my timezone for how it went down....
I'd like to learn more about these "stick" people. Is it best to flip thru the FF threads or come to the James16 website. I've been looking at "bars" for many years but never really put a face on them.
Thanks
Hi!
I wouldn't recommend trading under 4h and even that can be VERY tricky if the "outside" timeframes strongly disagree with what you're seeing inside...
1H I find to get overruled and fail so often I don't even bother, 4h is sort of ok as you will see by the chart and Daily is basically "where it's at". Of course this means larger stops and most importantly tons of patience, but it also means being able to get additional money by having a dayjob or a life and bolstering profits that way, too
Check out swissy for some really nice PA examples I made, hope I didn't get too much wrong (keep in mind Asia is always a bit more tame and highly likely to produce I4Bs on 4H due to that)
I only managed to trade the DBLHC live (it came just before news) but at least that was rather fun to see in action =D
Glossary:
PB=pin bar
DBLHC=double low, higher close
TBH=two bar high
I4B=inside bar, smallest of 4
BEOB/BUOB=bearish/bullish outside bar (aka engulfing candle in candlespeak)
All explained in this same thread. Read read read
I constantly read and reread it over and again to try and burn these patterns into my mind. Inside bars are most easily missed and can lend themselves to some excellent breakout setups BUT you have to look at the surrounding "boundaries" to avoid fakes. I prefer to sacrifice some pips for more certainty. I am NOT experienced yet, just observing, learning.
Hi again.
This is something that's been kicked around by TA people forever and just showed it's effectiveness again today.
On USDJPY, coming from monthly, you connect the highs and get a descending trendline which was formerly resistance and now is support...it held on a first test today and moved price up about 40 pips so far.
I "stole" this idea from Raczekfx who trades with trendlines all the time
It's also in some setups from other technical analysts who suggested some tentative longs there last night as well. (They drew the same TL)
The same thing was already posted to another thread by Raczekfx, but since I do not post there anymore due to obvious reasons and thought people here might also like this addition to "naked" trading, I've attached a picture.
Please note that this is not an exact science and can fail, especially if you derive your TLs from smaller timeframes. It's just another good way to have a "heads up" on your chart for certain price levels I feel
I just wanted to share another trade I actually took today (among a few others which I got killed on due to me trying to stem a trend on my own...but this one worked).
Just to illustrate. The 1 2 and 3 are meant to be Elliot like counts, it assumes price moves in waves, 3 being the biggest wave. You draw the 1 to the 2 with the FE tool and get a 100% and 161.8% target of how far the actual move might go. Just another way of figuring out spots to take profit and lines up real well with s/r zones etc usually.
The .786 fib lines usually is a strong area of resistance together with other confluence and can be good for either a small bounce or the beginning of a new move if it holds.
Just noticed that in this case this is where we started from.
All in all a 72 pip move out of 102 total moved, not bad so far. Keeping my second half of the position though, because I believe we just moved out of a range, are going to make a DBLHC on weekly and because I am curious whether we will make it much further past 1.2660-90
Oh and I almost forgot, I also had a breakout order waiting at 1.2585 which also worked out fine. So there are many ways to skin a cat ;D
just another example of how trendlines can lend themselves to entering early and with a small small stop. I told a friend last night that entries at around 730-760 with stop at around 700-715 would be a great re-entry into the uptrend as cable likes to trend fridays if it has trended strongly on thursdays....
Sadly enough I didn't heed my own advice as I wasn't awake early enough to trade it myself and didn't want to rely on orders solely. As it has become obvious now, I should have. And no, I don't believe it was news that moved cable, I believe it was yesterdays movement and the change of seasons accordingly
News to me appears to be just an excuse to let them market move, like a starter gun at a race, but only the really big stuff can say sorry gents, we just changed where the finish line is at...
Hi!
If you want my opinion:
Looks like the 4h bearish outside bar (on my 4h, that's the pin on your 4h) turned into a daily pin here on my timezone.
I'd wait for a retrace to about 1.1250 and go short there if you are convinced that it's a true pin and a good setup. (I don't know, I think it's not in the best place but 4h does hint at lower)
Please keep in mind however that if you do this you are attempting to trade a pin that hasn't broken/been activated yet. (price has not moved below the pins body yet).
A break of 1.1200 would confirm well and as shown on the chart I'd aim at 1.1120 and 1.1050 for taking profit, all the while moving the stop up accordingly so as to not lose more than necessary.
Keep in mind tho that grabbing at resistance a few times before moving down could be likely, especially if 1.1200 struggles and puts up a fight.
Personally I can't stand USDCAD as it's too much oil based and that's way way way too erratic for me. I try to stay away.(could be a clue as to oil falling again after it's insane 2+$ rise tho)
Just my 2 cents, not telling you to trade this. (i.e. I don't have a clue, this is an opinion, not an advice or recommendation).
I do like this a lot more than scalping on M15 or even most 1h-based systems.
For those who have not given this a go, try it and see for yourself!
Hi Geldmeister,
welcome to the dark side
If you indeed made some trades off of the daily charts why not take some of the examples and show us the actual trades and reasons for taking them. Entry, stop placement and exit would be interesting to see and nice to compare.
I'm sure others feel the same way. Pip counts are nice, but the actual trades are what help everyone to spot things and learn
Just my thoughts on this, wish you the best of luck should you go live with it.
just wanted to share todays trades with you all.
Took an IB break on EURUSD after a sort of pin on cable failed to the upside(again, I still think trading that sort of "break" should also be viable, and today proved it another time) and get this: to the pip my limit was hit, EURUSD got dizzy and now look at the mess.
One of the most whacky days.
Ironically I took a short on AUDUSD just before it happened and that moved all of 14 pips whereas all other pairs put in 50-70....hmpf!
They just don't want me to get too happy
Anyway, just wanted to share.
Lightpatch is a nice collection and all, but quite frankly I believe that this style is made for getting over all of that sort of thing and I for one am SO glad of that.
Happy to see others are starting down the same path as well, it sure helped me gain a bit more hope and confidence again.
Hi,
Sorry if I'm interrupting, just wanted to contribute my chart view to the GBPUSD, first the daily and then - lately my real favorite - the 4h.
Some crooked sort of pin bars on daily, an inside bar that could have been played both ways with tight tight stops (the messy action and news warranted moving stops to b/e once price moved out imho).
140-180 pips just from looking at the daily in 2-3 trades I would say.
Next post I'll go into the 4h which was quite interesting as well :P
The 4h view....rather a big mess.
Thanks to BOE and other news items it was very dangerous territory.
However, if you avoided trading during that time and just WAITED until it was over and played the weeks first and last I4B, both did 80-100 pip runs.
No indicators, just a bar.
I took at least 2 EURUSD trades for 40 pips each on the same logic and EJ went 100 pips from a double daily IB windup as well....
No myths here, just really good stuff
Things really get interesting if you start to see higher TF formations on smaller timeframes like the daily PB formed by 2 bars on 4h
BTW, if I overlooked something or categorized some PA wrong, that's still very possible, I am but a beginner in this art. James16 is very right, it's not a thing of 3 months and you're the master, it's a process.
Still make a lot of mistakes, but the most important thing is staying in the game =)
The people alone are worth it *smiles and waves to Habeeb*
My best regards and good luck with all your trading,
If it doesn't work, then you're doing it wrong. It's been proven over and over again.
Totally agree. Yay for EURUSD / USDCHF(both still open&running with stops at b/e), shame on me for snoozing still when that GBPUSD happened :P
Also made 45 pips on AUDUSD from an IB.
I am looking at joining the James 16 PF. Can someone tell me when the month starts? Do I need to wait till the first of the month or is it from date of payment?
Thanks in advance
Hi,
hope it's ok if I just jump in and answer it: it's a month from date of payment, so it doesn't matter when you join. You can join anytime
just an update, this IB broke south and stalled exactly at the 365 ema, no suprises. So if you did take the IB south I would just monitor it close, cause it wouldnt be a suprise if it comes back. As always we cant predict, only improve our odds
BEST
MIKE
Hi Mike,
seems the tops are identical at least on my charts, so I would think the second bar would not be an inside bar (as high/low aren't < prior bar) but form a two bar high with the other daily bar? => you could buy a break higher. Not sure if the same high but inside-low counts as IB as well :/
The problem being the EMA / reistance area right around there (116.55ish, again 117.15), but isn't there always
And same thing to the downside the same story, yea, might be why things are erratic atm.
EURUSD / USDCHF / GBPUSD all are starting to give signs of exhaustion, so who knows, maybe we will give back some today. Yen has been VERY weak yesterday and the days before as well, thanks to politico jawboning.
Let's see what happens.
tHE ANNIVERSARY DATE FOR MY SUBSCRIPTION TO YOUR THREAD IS THE 14TH. i WOULD LIKE TO END MY SUBSCRIPTION ON THE 12TH OR 13TH OF DEC 2006 JUST TO MAKE SURE i AM NOT BILL AGAIN. THANKS i HAVE FOUND YOUR TAKE BOTH INTERSTING AND EDUCATIONAL. bUT A BIT EXPENSIVE
Hi hk334,
if you mean the subscription to the Private Forum / James16 group, then I think it would be a good idea to send an Email to James or Charles directly with "Cancellation of my subscription" or similiar in the email subject.
You should have the address from when you first subscribed.
Processing is usually swift and you should have no problems.
Sounded like that's what you meant, so I thought I should say so accordingly =)
I'll send you a PM, too, just in case.
Good question I am wondering if the tolerances differ when you are looking at an hourly,daily. or weekly chart
Hi, I don't know what James' take is on this, but the optimum is identical lows, since it is like the name says: double low - then a higher close.
Personally - and keep in mind I am but a beginner - I find that if you have a reason to believe that it's a valid setup even if the lows don't match 100%, then you can usually check the lower timeframes and find clues there.
EURJPY for example (on the 23rd November) had a 4h DBLHC before it's rise from 150.35, but the lows mismatched by 2 pips.
Normally I would say for such a low timeframe 2 pips can be quite a lot, but toggling to 1H I saw that it had a 1H pin bar as well.
Now both 4h and 1h are risky and not very reliable, BUT there was also support and an EMA there, so it would have been worth a trade. I for one however didn't take it due to uncertainty at the time.
The result we all know now - over 350 pips rise
But see what I mean? More than one timeframe agreed, there was further confirmation etc...not just "oh hey, that might be a DBLHC give or take a handful of pips, yea sure whatever"....
The textbook versions have identical lows and the close is above the prior bars high I believe.
My only trouble is that some demo MT4 platforms have VERY bad signal feeds and ticks can differ by 2-5 pips at some times and things can get very difficult with that in mind. Well, and weekly timeframes most likely deviate a bit more than hourly =)
Getting familiar with price action...
Can we consider this DBLHC....anybody take this trade?
Hi Panjan,
I don't trade USDCAD, it's too oil correlated for me, but it looks like a bullish outside (vertical) bar / bullish engulfing candle to me.
I'd recommend looking for nearby zones of resistance that will turn into support once you are above them to enter instead of right away.
You might miss some trades, but you make up for it in less stop and more profit.
Here's the chart from my timezone with the example.
Hope this helps.
Since Habeeb mentioned GBPJPY can be quite a meanie, I wanted to show the last two trades I took on it. Turns out the first one was an excellent (perhaps A?) trade, but I closed it early and the second one happened today and once again I wussed out too soon.
There is a very, very important lesson here: LET YOUR PROFITS RUN. :S
Can't emphasize this enough for these cross-pairs...
Trail a stop under the daily and let that catch it for example...
A good place for a stop once it passed my 0.0 fib line would have been just below that TBH that price formed there at 228.98, I can see that now in hindsight...but we're always smarter then
The trick is that these Yen crosses basically really only know one direction as long as the BOJ rates are low and steady, and that is up.
So taking trades on these pairs after getting bullish pins or IB breaks seems to be the way to go. Shorting seems fatal in almost all cases.
without wanting to deny either the BEOB or the fact that cable is thoroughly overstretched - seemingly, we've been down this road for 1000 pips before - but just yesterday Habeeb said he's looking for a place to go long as Gold pinned.
Now it went up all day and is higher. Why are we looking to short?
AUDUSD and NZDUSD are higher accordingly, EURUSD moved over a trendline and is holding/bouncing from it, USDCHF is contained below an EMA....
I am long from 1.9700 from an EMA touch with a VERY small stop and will stay so until the BOE minutes kill me in 10
I think both perspectives are currently viable, only time will tell which one wins out this time
Trading ahead of these red news is prolly suicide anyway
Hehe sounds like someone has been watching movies: "Greed is good"
Anyway, wanted to attach the EURUSD trendline I meant...either it breaks the EURUSD trendline and goes to the cable one, or EURUSD holds and EURGBP offset compensates, is what I'm thinking....that's why I entered long, considering EURGBP only knows one direction anyway :P
I am looking for an entry to short. Will wait to see where today will close. Next target might be the middle trendline.
How about 1.9700-1.9720? ;D
I made a mini-TL
The lows at the 61.8% start at 1.9700 and the middle is around 1.9715 of the struggling IB, also it's just under the low of one 4h bar at the top...
Or maybe that 38.2% will cap us if it's a heavy decline.....it's these times I feel like it's the first time I'm making a trade again.....all guessing and no knowing =)
Btw, before I forget it in all the price poking frenzy:
I wish all of you and your families happy holidays and a great new year!
Speaking of 4h, I am watching to see if EJ will follow GJ suit.
GJ pins seem to work like this: make the PB, make an IB the next day, break both to confirm reversal....I for one have placed orders under the pin, eve n though it's pretty hard to guess where the real break is and how much is just the insanely large spread alone
Cable just did a 15m pin into the 1.9700-1.9720 zone I mentioned, will now watch to see if 1H / 4h confirms it. Pivot and all them EMAs is in the way though...
Also watching USDJPY with the crosses and cable, one of the two has to win out....dollar or yen....
For the cough - drink honey, it's antiseptic and helps the throat, gargle with saltwater, similiar effect. That combats the throat area, for the bronchial/lung area, try inhaling...I forgot which scent/spice/weed works for that, but I bet Accrete could help there
Other than that - apples, bananas, anything with lots and lots of Vitamins!
Oh and if you want to put the honey into hot milk, make sure it isn't hotter than 30C when you do else it destroys too much of the "good stuff" =)
I'm afraid those charts are just for illustration, the stuff I have is still cluttered
Just wanted to share another observation since Bundyraider (Bunnyraider really WOULD be funnier, although I doubt Hugh Hefner would appreciate it as much *wink*) mentioned retrace on Pin.
I think the area between the 61.8% and 78.6% is usually where things stall if you get a "deep" retrace and that usually gets you the smallest possible stop, even if the pin doesn't activate. If only 1 out of 3 work you would still end up even compared to the pin break entry as the saved pips and more pips made if it does work evens out I would hazard. This is just guessing however.
Attaching a chart to show the area, this occured quite a few times now.
Hi, without wanting to distract too much and go off topic too far, but...
seeing this 4h action I was strongly reminded of a daily pattern, I looked back and compared the two.....back then the result was a strong rise from the 50% of the last drop down, exactly where we are now if one would humor the pattern and take it serious....
Is anyone bored enough to comment?
I personally find it creepy how similiar it all is...
Did this with daily + daily from a few years back before, it lined up roughly, too...
Just left my 1.9689 short after +104.
1h PA at the low(pivot+61.8%+EMA) scared me too much (looks like a very bad pin bar) and the last time we ended up with a rise of 290+ pips, so I'd rather book what I have
I'm still miffed that my USDJPY long I took after we finally broke higher got stopped at 117.95 which was to the pip the reversal spot and is now back above my former entry pice.....My stops are always the best entries, maybe I should just try to trade around that
Looks like that was a good call. One coulda bought that 61.8% touch for a quick 60!
Almost sad to see the almost same move happen in 2 hours that you waited 7 hours for
Since I'm always bored when out of a position, I made a nice 1h overview of s/r zones and possible playouts / places to watch for cable....
There is a lot at once, so don't get confused, just go by the lines, the arrows are just to illustrate the touches / price reaction
The uprend from 1.8834 to 1.9843 is followed by consolidation that formed "flag" pattern.
Hi Arnas,
I have no idea as that formation isn't part of Jame's Price Action to the best of my knowledge. Have no experience with flags other than seeing them hanging around poles and windows at times
But since I am STILL bored, I just wanted to show how short term support turns to short term resistance at the current price chart....if you drop down to 1 hour you can see how price got pushed back at least 30 pips from it.
It also coincided with a longer term trendline from the top / high, but I didn't include it in the gif so as not to clutter it too much. The point I want to make works well enough without it
S->R and vice versa.
And finally, a question for Habeeb and the other more experienced folks...
Habeeb always says think of a PB like a compressed Head and Shoulders...
So, we just had one, the USDCHF example was posted here, too.
Now the EURUSD had pretty much the same thing. BUT, now looking at things here, as well as cable, it seems we might get the same thing in the opposite direction, but after the tinyest of swings...are we looking to go long at the right shoulder that's to come? Or best to stay out after all this two-way ranging and thrashing? If in doubt and all that...
Here, I even made the two camps a pretty color each
Hehe ... nice colors bro.
You should check the fiber 4hr chart. It's much more clear.
It is? :P
Sorry if I'm a bit thick currently, but for me there's just the same thing in green on there if you ask me, temporary pinlike thing now, but really coming down from another on daily...it's all wiggedywhack :P
Another Pin Bar, within 1 pip of the previous one's low, and also closing above the 50fibo. I took some profit already. If we get a retrace of the pin, I might just enter another long trade.
Nice one Habeeb!
I tried a few dozen pips to early, just to exit the trade prematurely manually...now I find myself looking at the entry price again....still in beginner shoes sometimes...And to think, I was looking to short 1.9670ish today and didn't..mind got messed up in all this lethargic start today..
Then later I was thinking the 61.8% retrace the other day was the right shoulder already and we wouldn't go back down to revisit it....oh well, we'll see what comes of it.
How did you manage to get in before even the 1h made a DBLHC? You never cease to amaze me
Merry Christmas everyone, take care and have a good one! (can't say it often enough hehe)
Btw, since EURUSD and GBPUSD are more or less synched (even with a steadily declining EURGBP) the crosses like EJ and GJ usually go tandem as well as the others like EURCHF and GBPCHF.
Just saying because we just had the EURCHF discussion a few posts back and had an inside bar there, best example of the slowing upward momentum and indecision
So I guess this is now reflected on GBPCHF as well.
So question is....is it solely CHF strength then or is GBPUSD going to drop a short while after the double bottom and short term pins nudge it up a bit again?
Hope everyone's getting great presents today!
Merry Xmas to those 1 day late folks across the atlantic!
Target reached ... well, not completely, but I'm out. Price is stalling within 2pips from 1.3217. Moving on ... waiting for the next trade. Caught the drop on cable too ... DBHLC on 4hr gave the game away:. Hope ya'll caught it too.
Heya Habeeb!
Great call last night!
Yes, caught the BEOB/DBHLC on cable, made 70 pips
You're simply amazing! =)
Keep it up!
Attaching a nicer version of the setup I posted over in the cable thread.
Best wishes,
SeekingLight
P.S. minor typo on pic, DBLHLC (it's sposed to be DBHLC = double high, lower close)
hi folks,
I'm curious where you would enter a trade on a DBHLC? A pip below the low of the bar?
thanks,
CFII
Hi CFII,
I'm no senior, but in general there's two ways to go about it - go in on a potential small retrace and get a smaller stop and a few more pips or enter on a break one or more pips lower. Considering feeds usually aren't THAT precise it prolly won't hurt if you use a few. But if s/r zones are nearby it might be tricky. Always be careful you aren't selling/buying into s/r zones, but also try not to overthink a trade or it will just end in you being blocked..
I think both variants are fine. It's perhaps safer to go by the break to confirm, but if you save and make more pips with retraces on each and every time, they can accumulate enough to compensate for a failed trade you could have weeded out with a break entry that never would have happened.
Personal preference I guess?
Maybe some more experienced folks could chime in
Btw heya Habeeb, yes, today was a good day for charting examples, charts are full of them
Traded half of em, too, which was the best part
Sold cable. Hoping for a double day down and break lower of the BEOB.
Don't think this can just splurge down like this and break trendlines and IBs without going a bit....we'll see.
GBPJPY is also lower than it's BEOB and AUDUSD's 1h pin (which didn't close with eyes level and inside the last bar btw) already gave way lower...
Gold is still risky because it's clinging to a rising trendline for dear life, but once that goes, too, I want to see my 1.9350 and 1.9220.
Here's the trade big picture for targets. Waiting to see the "real" 38.2% correction, let's see if we can't make it to there...personally I hope we can go low enough before the news spike it all to hell....as you can see there's both a mouteki / TDM trendline break as well as a FE projection that lines up with lower targets, question is how smooth this will go.
Bit reluctant so far.
Found us a valid short reason for cable on the 15M after some searching...phew!
Was right near 1.9535 s/r (this much isn't curve fitting) and there was a 15M DBHLC (also true!) and that meant sell! Hah! Found one
Just wasn't awake at 5:45 so I had to take a lower price...yea, that's it!
Phew...
Thanks
I bailed my EJ short too soon, it is now over 65 pips down, I closed at 25...ach well, better safe than sorry
But cable I am keeping, I don't see any signs of reversal at 1.9408 just yet and I don't think the bears are full yet after being so hungry yesterday.
I will take partial profit if we hang around too long however.
Nice to see the TL line up with the support lines I got here, was wondering why it was in the middle of seemingly nowhere price was pausing
Did you take the BEOB on GJ or cable?
Just wanted to post this as a lesson to stay in trades (I bailed without making too much of a profit, let alone enough to warrant the stop I had used. Got spooked by that 38.2% bounce that looked like a BUOB or something).
EJ BEOB, ran 140 pips after the break already. Could either pin here or do anything. But geez, 140 pips.
Took +20 on the USDJPY bearish pin bar when I saw it didn't want to go under 119.05 s/r.
Could be the Yen is back to being the beating boy now.
Speaking of the EUR/JPY, is this a classic pin bar ? -
No it's the BEOB I posted twice now
BEOB / BEOVB : bearish outside bar, bearish engulfing candle (engulfing=>overlaps the prior candle fully, above and below, close lower than low of prior candle)
Crosses, eh? I was hoping EJ would pin, but it didn't, only GBPJPY did.
61.8% and a creative trendline and rough s/r zone.
If USDJPY goes back up or holds as cable rises that'd do it
But I don't trust the way the market 'feels' at the moment, must be the lurking NFP.
Deleting attachment as price already went under the pin. USDJPY finally arrived at my targetted trendline after I closed it out hours ago. Arg.
Patience, patience, must learn more patience...
Price broke back above the 1.9400 level quite strong. Waited for a pullback to this point to enter ... and got a 15min pin to go long. Looks like an inverted head-n-shoulders on the 15min chart. Since you guys are joining bars ... this would be an 8hr pin.
Have a 4h one on my timezone. I'm totally lacking faith in anything today however since I already got burnt and burnt again.
Also down on spirits after seeing EJ and USDJPY run 100-200 pips after I left em for 10 and 20...how silly was that?
Also closed out my cable shorts yesterday - first limit was 1.9350. Ironic.
Could have had a swell week on 3-4 trades, instead I am banging my head against the wall due to my own stupidity...
I just wanted you cheer you up. We did some similar trades this week. Got scared with the EJ trade and also made one extra stupid mistake.
So dont you worry. You are not the only one making those ugly things. We are still learning.
Happy Trading!
Bluefish
Hey Bluefish, thanks.
Just annoyed because every time it seems I'm past the "too afraid to press the trigger" phase then the trade management itself seems be an issue....
The irony usually is that my orders are good stuff but often my manual intervention manages to botch it. Admittedly, I've also saved a few trades by cutting them before they reversed on me(I don't have automatic trailing stops), but these pins / BEOBs at the end of swings come around every month or so and can REALLY pay off, and I simply wasted a very good opportunity. That's what's bugging me.
But oh well, live and learn. There'll always be pips to come
Hi guys...basically looks great that GJ setup....just a bit messy, all this yen action lately...
USDJPY drop reversed for 100 pips after that NFP, then hit the .618 retracement and made a bearish pin bar....usually if USDJPY goes down, the crosses do, too?
No? Not sure here, just a bit confuddled as usual
Edit: Lol Mike, so much for great minds think alike
This trade is not looking great, and I will most likely close it soon and call it a weekend.
Mike
Yea, it's a shame, here I was thinking it'd make a good re-entry into what might become a weekly BEOB and now it's a daily bullish pin bar almost. What's up with this market :/
Shame, I really don't love getting stopped / having to close for some reason :S
I'm afraid I don't drink, so I'll have to go to the milk bar instead
Just wanted to point out how a retrace entry could have saved pips and maybe even made some already, even without much pin action...
Still curious since we had a second pseudo-pin into .786 and a FE projection would hint at 118.30s which is a price pivot...but it's totally mixed signals, the big bullish bar from the 118.00 and the 118.55 s/r doesn't seem to like bears at the moment :P
Almost all pin bars I've seen lately at least touched the .618 retracement, so there's really no reason why one would use the pin break instead, as a 61.8% smaller stop also means the same pip count is already profit the second you get back to the nose.....you save AND you win pips, what's not to love?
Makes up for pins that fail on average quite easily I would say and if you don't get filled then all you lose is an opportunity, not money...
(can anyone tell I am mostly saying this to myself so that I listen to myself better in the future?)
Hi everyone...
Seems Nippy took a heart and went down a little bit for me after all.
At least something :P
I of course immediately made up for it this morning by thinking I could short cable after a 15M pinbar at a trendline hit...got in a bit too late, didn't use a retrace entry and zingggg I got burned. Classic :P
Just wanted to post the monthly for USDJPY although it has gone and ignored PA setups on monthly just as treacherously as EURCHF before....
Starting to wonder whether monthly is almost TOO big a timeframe to use...
Totally overlooked the 15M on usdjpy Mike, but closed out my shorts nonetheless as price bottomed and bounced too much. Not exactly gigantic profit, but oh well.
Went long EJ on the retrace of the 1h BUOB, it's now looking to make a daily pin bar if this holds. Last time it made one(1h BUOB) it totally failed, so I am glad today it SEEMS to be holding.
Same thing happened on GJ of course(takeoff of the retrace from 228.62), but I don't see why I should pay three times as much spread and use 2-3 the stop size needed for GJ if EJ does just as well.
Sometimes you get conflicting PA signals....first there was a sort of bearish PB on GBPJPY, then a BUOB, a bit after that a BEOB that only faked out 2-3 pips.
I guess it's up to everyone themselves to figure out whether this is just an ignorable anomaly or whether a higher timeframe says it's still ok to stay in etc.
In this case I'd simply say it's GBPJPY, it only ever goes up usually, so if you're in long with a risk free trade, give it a chance :P
Sadly, I'm on EJ and EURGBP decided it had to go 40+ pips lower and leave the EURUSD and EURJPY behind in the dust as the sterling pairs rallied...
Just wanted to show that this is NOT failsafe stuff, especially on the 1H timeframe. Again, retrace entries make sure you end up even or at least with less loss, sometimes even a small small profit if your trade goes awry.
Was wondering whether taking this USDCHF pin is going to be a good idea or not...I tried to curve fit it into a s/r as well as I could, any other opinions on this?
EURUSD and GBPUSD are mega-skewed thanks to all the cross action, so I'm pretty unsure whether this is a good idea...
A daily pin that didn't work out. I hate it when the week starts like this.
My entry point to short cable is around the 1.9500-20 area. Possibility of a Pin on 4hr cable to go long. Still 30min to go.
My theory is that thanks to EURCHF rising 45 pips USDCHF got too darn distorted and just plain failed....it's odd, I always feel like this ALWAYS happens when _I_ try something obvious :P
EJ long and USDJPY long I took are still AOK however, but at smaller stake.
I'll break even at some point I hope...
Cable seems to be hovering around making a daily doji type of thing today if we end the day near the 1.9400, unless this is the last dip down before takeoff to 1.9500. I agree with Habeeb that that's a s/r zone.
One observation on my behalf: the s/r toggles IMHO are EXACTLY the same as 1000 pips lower. Like 1.9433 is same as 1.8433 and 1.9840-60 is 1.8840-60 s/r etc.....
It's probably likely that this is a great simplification for them unknown territories to just use old prices?
thats a bad sign when price moves lower than the last pin for this trade correct?
IMHO it's a bad sign if it moves much lower than the .618 / .786 fib retracement, too....if it moves past the pins low/high against the other side, it's pretty much failed.
USDCHF already did, now just EURUSD needs to cave in and then the world's building blocks are prolly gonna start tumbling :P
And to think I was short at 1.3036 earlier today and left that for break even again...
Looks great, I had taken a small postion on the bounce of 119.50(weekly r1). I may add to it if i get a break of the 8hr pin which is what my data feed shows. We have some pretty heavy resistance going back to september here.
Mike
Hey Mike, please keep the monthly BUOB in mind and check out the 1H PB we just had before this move back up for the retrace....be careful here!
Since Ghostpipper asked what I meant by the .618 / .786 fib retracement failure meaning the whole Pin usually fails, here's a chart of the 1H on the usdchf that shows where you could see signs of it failing even before the daily high was surpassed.
This is just my view of things, it's not necessarily the most prudent. But if something that should have been resistance (the .618 or the .786 line) is breached and turns into support, that pretty much signals that price is now moving on past it. In this case usually to the 127.2% fib => above the daily high in any way.
Ok, this should be my last post for that nippy thing :P
Just wanted to point out that the middle of the two fibs is commonly a good retrace target. Not all the time, sometimes it barely gets to .618, but this is just something I noticed happening occasionally.
Still prone to fail if it goes much higher imho.
Wedged between two rising trendlines on another of my charts, should see a squeeze soon.
It's times like these that really test your nerves and patience I guess....
Best time to step back and look at the bigger picture....here's USDCHF weekly. We see a clear dollar recovery and s/r spots we stopped at and moved past. Should kept this in mind and only traded pro-dollar setups, would have saved a LOT of nerves. Trend is your friend and all that.
Bailed out of USDJPY too early on a small 15M pin against the trendlines, silly me...
But was still short cable from quite a bit earlier on today and entry off yesterday's pin reason...
Just wanted to show that middle between the two fibs I keep mentioning as we once again got a classic middle retrace for that pin there.
Seen it happen a lot of times and since it's high enough to spook some people into thinking oh no it will go up instead of down it's worth keeping a look out for price action in this fib area roughly. Todays 1H pin confirmed the daily pin pretty much I guess, although it's all been chop suey.
Was originally aiming for 1.9160-80, but the next higher s/r toggle is 1.9240-275 so I'll look what happens near the low. FE projection as well as small swing 127.2% line up there, but the big swing 127.2% is still lower. But nobody knows the future, ey?
To me this all looks like a wave 3 rapid move down, then 2 days of correction with wave 4 ending in the pin and now today the start of wave 5 maybe if we fall back under those trendlines connecting the 1H lows.
But I've really got no idea, especially concerning wave counts =)
Just wanted to do a quick flashback to my original trade back on the 4th of January this year. We were still sliding down that descent from 1.9750.
There was only a short pause before price continued on down and I had re-entered short at 1.9495. Looking at the daily charts I made some price projections and set myself two targets, the first at 1.9350 which had heavy confluence and the second lower at around 1.9180 for an outside shot.
I just wanted to go back and see how the chart filled in after I made the projections, since I kept one variant of it around (yea, I'm like a chart collector...).
I got spooked out of the trade when price was bounced up to 1.9472 from the first touch of 1.9400. I mean come on, it went 70 pips against me, right?
But in the end, the very next day it hit 1.9350 to the pip after never having come back past my entry. Can you imagine how annoying that was to see?
This is the sort of thing I'm still having trouble coping with. I have a very well laid out plan and well thought out targets and then I get jostled about and abandon ship without so much as a handful of pips instead of the full trade.
What I'm trying to say here is that
1. You need to stick to your trading plan and
2. It's the psychology, not the system that makes the trader and trades work
It's something I'm still struggling to get past and I can't emphasize enough how important it is to keep things in perspective.
Hope I'm not just clogging the thread with cries of self pity and woe is me :P
Sorry no posting of chart, got my proper job work to do!!!!
H
Here's one
If 154.55 goes you should get at least another 50 pips short term and if the drop is for real, who knows, we might revisit 151.60-80 at some point
Never a bad idea to keep the last tiny fraction running as long as possible :P
Yesterday's 4hr pin turned into a Daiy Pin. I'm in already. Got a nice retrace today to the level of the first eye. I've changed my target to the weekly pivot.
This isn't our week, is it Habeeb?
Got burnt on almost all the same trades as you, ended up cutting the really good ones for 15 pips and then seeing them go hundreds (I was long USDJPY at 118.98 and 119.20, left both for < 30 pips, now we're at 120.50)...
Alternatively I shorted cable, went to bed, saw it had moved out 50 then come back and stopped me out for a small loss.
Today again up 60, then a sudden hike and the stop disappears while I'm out.
Lovely to have a broker without trailing stops...
Then again the old malaise, I shorted EURUSD for +39 pips only to cut it before the real dive went through :S
*sighs* Can't catch a break here....always end up net negative or even on trades that could have increased my account by 20-33% this week total on really tiny stakes, it's mindnumbing.
Anyway, here's the breakdown of what I looked at while I shorted EURUSD in the aftermath. I simply went with the flow there and the classic newsfade.
I have also been telling a friend for a week now that USDCHF will hit 1.2350 and then 1.2500 and I guess I was right.
Can someone please tell me to simply trade what I talk, too? I would have been so much better off if I did that...
And since I was bored a few minutes ago I wanted to post this minichart I made to illustrate how to deal with BUOBs once again...
This time on a more "evil" pair, the GBPJPY.
Try not to look at the timeframe :P
I should have blended that out....well, it's all about illustration, anyway
Hi, just wanted to add the 1h chart for the EJ mess. Tried to short on retrace after the BEOB on 4h GMT, ended up getting that 1h PB at the low and closing for +2 instead of +35. Bah. Then of course it immediately dropped back down....THEN came that BUOB and the rise back to the .618 where it MAY have just signaled with that 1h PB that it could be dropping to activate the daily pin bar. Well, sort of PB, it's a bad one, as usual.
Shorting the crosses like Mike says isn't the easiest thing
It's already reached the 100% copy. (yellow lines) Which also conincide with a lot of targets.
I see Bundy uses the same target projections I do
You have a Fib Expansion tool in MT4 you can use for this. You draw it from the low (origin of Wave A or 1) to the interim high (end of Wave A or 1 ), then down to the next low again (end of wave B or 2). Then the projection shows you the target of Wave C or 3. As in a-b-c or 1-2-3 from Elliot wave stuff or corrections etc.
FE 61.8 is a weak wave, FE 100 normal and FE 161.8 an extended wave.
Sometimes FE 138.2 lines up with stuff too, but I mostly have that out of curiosity.
That fib expansion made us look like geniuses this time round. Stopped pretty much to the pip.
For the moment anyway.
Awesome!
Hehehe yea, but that was just interim....I much more wish that I'm correct with the next higher one and we get to 1.9630-50, considering I'm long from 1.9418
Stop is at +20 so let's see how far we can go
1.9555 is a classic s/r from 1000 pips lower, but we will see about that.
Let's get ready to rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrumble!
I took this trade too (USDCHF). Was using the 2H chart and went short after the retrace of the PB.
I only opened a small trade as wasnt sure how to play a news related PB.
What are your thoughts on where the price might be heading to? I can see some fibo lines around the 1.2415-12430 area and an S/R line about 1.2450!
H
Hi,
I already exited the trade for a small profit. I had originally aimed for 1.2450, then got greedy and aimed at 1.2415. Changed my limit to that, saw it make a doji after hitting my target. A tiny FE 100 projection also suggested the wave ending at 1.2447. I should have just heeded that and taken a straight 30 pips. My entry was a bit late, 1.2480 after spread.
Just wanted to post an updated chart for this and a marker for the entry.
Also added the s/r levels. I repeat once again, these are the SAME s/r levels as 1000 pips lower, simply exchange the 1.8xxx for 1.9xxx and there you go.
I simply marked them in my chart and if need be slightly adjusted them +-5 to 10 pips for current highs/lows.
I believe this is the current grid we're trading off on. I have a conspiracy theory that there might actually be only a single grid for every thousand pip toggle (the first decimal after the comma >> 1.x) and that that is simply overlaid for every level that's currently traded. Haven't checked in the lower regions yet, maybe it only applied because the levels up here were unknown and people wanted to use known s/r levels. No idea.
Note the massive confluence of fib projection, expansion and s/r at 1.9510. Price literally went TWANGGGGG there and pushed price back down 100 pips after it was hit. Rubber band and slingshot indeed. Admittedly this coincided with the news (BOE hike and Trichet) but I don't think that makes it any less of an important spot. It's also the classic "middle" of the 1.9xxx.
We also already hit the 161.8% of the retracement expansion and the 138.2% Fib Expansion. If we can turn those into support, things will get interesting indeed.
I'm currently asking myself: are we now done with a wave 4 down and in a wave 5 up? Considering Gold just moved up to a pivoty middle again and the other majors are also seemingly trying to fight back, who knows.
Could be EURGBP is luring us into a trap, could be the dollar is really going to get some serious punishment again...I for one plan to hold this one for a bit, locked in +80 pips and will watch what happens...Trying to test the limits of my patience this time
One thing is for sure - if things are to reverse back down due to the BEOB on weekly, it better be from right here. 1.9600 - 1.9650 is pretty much the area that should contain a rise, and if it can't, then 1.9880 could be in the cards.
Crystal balling after a single day, I must be REALLY bored this time.
Thought I would kick off the week going back to this post. We had a break of the resistance and now a retest as support. We have 30 mins left but this is worth keeping an eye out for. Things work best when you have a plan in your head and the pieces come together.
Hiya Mike, nice chart, the pullback to the prior high once again was the best spot to go! As usual I'm a bit bored here so I thought I'd pull up the 1H perspective of the stuff and see where we are now
Did you get in? And where?
since it's sunday/monday i waited for 4hour break and will hold it as long as things look good. We shall see. I tend to stay on the 4hr dailys at the start of a week. Then as things get going move to the lower time frames. Just something I do LOL.
Mike
Ah okay. I got in at the break of the 1H BUOB and got 236.11 price after spread. Moved stop to +9 and am waiting to see if Habeeb is right and cable comes crashing down or not....Both his trades combined make him artificially short GBPJPY, not nice Habeeb!
Half the James'ers long GJ, half short, what will become of us!
We need to reunite the ranks!
On another note, USDJPY might be dangerous to short looking at weekly, cable I'm amazed it even got this far. But I'm not complaining, I've now locked +160 in on that long and am waiting to see if we touch 1.9700 and beyond...the pretty insane drop on EURGBP that got us up here pretty much annihilated any other trading opportunities.
Personally entered at the round number 120.50 targetting 119.20 as 1st port of call. A break of 120 should accelerate this.
I still think the "big" direction is long unless we lose the s/r zones we made on the way up. Look for signs of recurring strength near these to get back long or if you're short from above hold on tight and see if the s/r zone goes.
Not a trading recommendation for anyone, just what I'm currently thinking to myself.
Here you can see why I get those oddball ideas like trading the wrong side of pins, too, sometimes. As you can see on monthly the BUOB retrace went exactly to a former failed PB high then took off.
In this case the "wrong side" of the pin bar also was an inside bar break if you so wish. Went for a bit but also had a gigantic drawdown. Not something I think I'm suited to trade, this timeframe. But it's great for a general idea of direction and "where are we???".
Did anyone trade the 4hr pin on cable then?? I got in on the 61.8 retrace and rode it all the way down got a bit twitchy and closed it for +80 pips!! I love this!!
Hey Mig,
very nice entry and trade. I was still in my long and got flushed out(for +190, so not too sad that I missed this trade as I can't hedge on this broker and wanted to see that 1.9620 support killed before I really believed the rise was over), so I will be looking to position myself after tonights close. Oil dropped lower already, Gold is wobbling and EURUSD and USDCHF seem to be pinning on daily.
If this all occurs I will buy dollars tomorrow for sure.
Btw, in the honor of Raczekfx I am attaching a trendline that if you connect the two highest highs on cable you will see where todays high was intercepted by +-5 pips roughly.
Pro inflation data and bad news for the dollar and the dollar rallies. Anyone see why I prefer TA over FA?
*shakes head*
I have been wondering the same thing myself. I would guess that most ppl enter on a 50% retrace but views from the major players on this thread would be much appreciated.
Hi.
Like Bundy already said I also would rather use the .618 and the .786 fibs.
I noticed that a lot of the time almost the exact middle is pivotal as well.
When trading a pin bar per orders I would use the 61.8% retracement plus or minus the spread.
There are some of the more bigger timeframe pins that will only retrace to the level of the left eye, i.e. the high of the prior bar, but I would ONLY enter at that price if price action itself indicated that it would most likely indeed be a kicking off point.
As with all entries on BEOB/BUOB/DBLHC/DBHLC etc pp I advise you look a bit to the left where a high is at that's near the middle of the setup that you just took, or a low of a prior range etc.
Usually things retrace quite a bit before heading out for good, although sometimes you miss seeing the retrace if it happened on a smaller timeframe. Entering on break is always tricky and a risky business as the market just loves fakeouts. So do this at your own peril.
They're a bit counterintuitive and take a bit of practice, but they can save a lot of pips. If you look over the last 100 posts you will find a LOT of examples for retrace entries (quite a few should be from me) and I should mention how I handle / think about Pins, too.
And btw, I used to chart for months on candles, switching to bars was no problem at all, you transition within 2-3 weeks and suddenly it's like you never used anything else
On another note, to requote a Playwright: Is this a Pin Bar which I see before me, it's lying nose pointed toward the hills?
Come, let me trade thee!
Guys, I think we're trapped.
Unless we break below those two s/r lines and cable dives back under 1.9600 it's looking very slosh-rangy here :/
Also if EURUSD jumps the TL hurdle it will become support and it might run away..
I've already gotten tricked out by a 1h EJ pin dying only to get a significant bounce from the stop-killing s/r dip after all and cable doesn't seem to want to quit either.
EURGBP dying in small increments, as usual.
So because of all the silly cross action instead of real dollar based moves everythings a bit hard to recognize....
But since Habeeb asked for more fiber I thought I'd send him a big pack of Kellog's Special K, Raisin Bran and a EURUSD chart
Btw, rummaging through the old chart collection I found this, was asking back then whether a formation of daily bars on GBPCHF might be a Head&Shoulders, seems it pretty much was....some sort of bullish thing anyway.
There was a good retrace to a s/r level where it found support before blasting off into outer space...bit further than I would have felt comfortable with, but that's crosses for you, they do that. Notice that the right shoulder made a BUOB off 2.3410 that would have made a great entry, even better with the retrace entry at the other s/r line at 2.3484.
Notice how ghastly charts can get with too many things on them
It's a good example for the use of price projection for targets, too.
Also this market is driving me insane and I needed to post SOMETHING :S
much the same setup on the swissy - longed from the 38.2 retrace again
Mike
1h PB into s/r, 30M BEOB, cable invalidated pin, Gold is above prior 3 touch high and oil is surging. The dollar is dead for me now until Gold drops off again for me.
We could very well be in a Cable Wave 5 up after all and starting on the C leg of it after yesterday being the B correction. We'll see, will analyse on daily close.
A lot of antidollar BEOB/BUOB on 4h as well, I will not be buying dollars right now.
Also if EURUSD jumps the TL hurdle it will become support and it might run away..
Just wanted to follow up on this with an updated EURUSD. We now also have a rising trendline which showed some s/r behaviour already and could contain price unless broken again. The prior TL turned into S after closing above it.
Gold has gone berzerk and for now seems to like > 630$ just fine. It has made a BUOB after two bars of windup. This should be bad news for the dollar.
Cable has just bounced and is working to get above a former s/r TL as well once more. If it manages that we could be going for a 1.9750 retest.
It's scary to see such a majorly skewed market with cable ready to break that TL and make an almost DBLHC with that, but USDCHF and EURUSD almost going nowhere. I will post both EURUSD and USDCHF to show how conflicting this currently seems to me.
And USDCHF from an optimistic perspective for the Dollar, for now. Keep in mind ANY USDCHF strength during idle periods may just just be EURCHF pushing higher and weakening CHF, not something helping the Dollar side.
Keep an eye on some of the crosses on the side once you get an overview of your favorite pair and you will see the effects.
Also noticed 4hr pin on crude and 1st close above supply line. Worth waiting for the pullback for entry?
You might want to check out my posts on oil here and here.
IMHO you missed the boat on that one, the pin has long gone, activated and taken off. If price does come back down there is a lot of risk the old downtrend could be pushing again. Oil has lost a few thousand pips, there's quite a bit of push behind it unless there's a decisive break back up imho.
Not an expert on oil or anything, just my view of it. Oil you have to get in as early as humanly possible, keep stops at 50 or lower and as soon as you hit 80-100 pips be ready to TP and move stops as it's like crack cocaine and speed mixed together in terms of movement speed.
NOT recommended for live trading and beginner traders at ALL.
Btw, cable didn't close high enough for me to really like it on GMT+1, maybe there's a last 15 pip push on GMT
This is the trade I am currently in, even if I wasn't soooooo happy with daily I simply tried my luck with a basic 4h retrace entry and it worked out just fine.
10 pips short of a DBLHC on daily if you ask me, but hey, given that Gold went nuclear and EURGBP is still nosediving etc I thought I had a just reason to go long cable.
Just saw an old TL hit, if we work it off 1.9800 should be clear I guess and TL should become S again. If not there's an interim support trendline a lot lower and a lot of places to pause at on the way. Attaching chart.
What a mess. I lose my long in the preshuffling only to see the market trade at the same price as the open. Oh well, yay for retrace entry = bit of profit made.
Since I got far too bored on forex today and felt like everything was almost completely random I went to a neighboring commodity that usually feels just as random. Added a bit of s/r and PA and got this....(again, do NOT try this at home!)
Great stuff there seekinglight - looks like its topped out at the trendline again for now - played the 1hr chart this morning and got in on the pin bar which has now developed into a 4hr pin - was also the 8/8 level in MM
Mike
Just wanted to say the 1h on your chart is not showing a pin bar. A valid pin needs to have its close within the prior bar's range, symbolizing a break back down into the prior trading range. Also it helps if the open and close are level or even slightly in favor of the pins direction as the open level very often seems to be a traders s/r. Been watching price a LOT lately and I feel open lines are quite important at times.
Not trying to spoil the trade, but about the only setup I saw at the top at the time was a 15M doji right as the trendline I posted was hit. A simple TL touch short with doji confirmation and a 15-30 pip stop would have yielded about 120 pips. There was also a 5M pin bar at the low of the news move which ended up 90+ higher for a third of that a stop as well, but let's not give people ideas here. FX wasn't so hot for me today. I did take a small USDCHF trade, will attach it...same pin on 30M as 1h on that right into the high.
Hi. Totally evil day today, got tricked out by news, sideways staggering market, etc....urgh.
Starting to think Monday and Fridays should just not be traded :S
Small setup I missed / saw too late on EJ that worked out ok, also there was a 2x1H sort of pin at the EURUSD high. But meh, terrible.
i guess it comes down to how much risk you are willing to take - the retrace would have been the perfect entry
Mike
Hi.
Quoting Mike for an important detail, the retrace.
Yes USDCHF had a similiar thing on 4h, in this case a DBLHC. It even dictated the initial news reaction direction. Then it topped out and the all too often seen newsfade began. Made a 30M beob and 1h sort-of-pin and on 4h, too.
Attaching 4h and then 30M.
Retrace entry = the only way to go. Forget about those that don't retrace, the ones that do make more and safer pips. And in cases like this one it's obvious where to they retrace, too.
I had an order originally placed at 1.9720 but then wussed out with the market being absolutely dead today.
Turns out it woulda made a great entry. Real shame.
Was expecting a retrace at around the .618 of the former 4h pin, even though it was in traffic and the market has been ranging.
Happened after all.
There's this classic "rule" that highs are s/r, especially if they're 3,4,5..8 year highs. Personally I never understood why that is. The DJI for indices and Oil for commodities never paused and reversed simply because there was a new high made, right?
The same thing for carry trades and crosses, simply because it made a new record high, why would one recoil from an entry?
The argument I had was how to play the IB we had on GJ daily.
I entered as soon as the daily bar broke above 239.80. I got ridiculed as it was "just under an 8 year high" and that "pro traders would never go long under that". I replied "how would it make it better if one entered AFTER a new high was made instead of 20 pips earlier, saving 20 pips stop, making 20 pip more profit and getting the same result or outlook - either it goes or it blows".
I mean, the inside bars that fake out and come back will do so no matter where, no? Better to have some pips locked in before they come back instead of exposing oneself at the high entry and using only a small 10-15 pip stop in hopes of continuation?
I simply think entering early can have you risk free or locking in pips no matter how many years of record highs or lows as opposed to having a higher likelyhood of having the thing blow up in your face...I feel it's safer to be in early than be "confirmed" that it moved out above the high/low...
Still in my g/j u/j and aud/cad. What is everyone else in?
Best,
Mike
I'm in a lot of pain with all this staggering +-30 pip ranging....every time we hit the lower boundary I fear it's gonna break and kill me :P
Still in GJ as well, going slightly insane seeing it come down almost 100% from +60.....still hoping cable and GJ continue their upward bound....Waiting for a breakout on cable.
Still long nippy, hoping that doesn't die on me as well...
Short USDCHF from a sort of pin like thing at the .786 + near the high, forming into a 4h pin soon.
I'm feeling very religious today, constantly praying things don't just whiplashthrash me out and nullify all PA I see...
Selling dollars, buying dollars....argh...what am I doing :P
Cable from daily setup. Shaky as wind is cold up here but EURUSD and USDCHF are also attempting to break out and no 1H pins YET. Can change in the last 5 mins if I'm / we're unlucky.
Yupp. Also still long EJ from 157.10. Also long EURUSD, short USDCHF and long USDJPY, altho the latter isn't doing so hot.
Attaching EURUSD reason. Daily IB, just popped weekly IB, too.
Hoping we don't get faked out. Gold and Oil up so far, USDCHF going to close below it's TL, too, so far.
So far, so good.....keep selling them dollars folks :P
Was tempted to add to my EJ when I saw this but wanted to be cautious today. Still at boundaries of the larger ranges.
1.3049 and 1.3089-1.3100 on EURUSD seem tricky if we reach that today/tomorrow and don't just plop back down on our butts again
For those in a GBPUSD trade, what was your reason for holding long after the inside bar broke to the upside but didn't takeoff?
Heya Cipher.
Simple. I view an IB as a crossroads now, or a railroad track toggle if you will.
That means the market can only go two ways from here on: above the IB or below it. I take the first signal that shows itself and until that light changes / signal reverses, it's on. The train can sometimes be a bit older and needs to start chugging and build steam first or it can be a monorail one, but in either case you need to give it some faith.
Have looked over some charts in the past and (important!) as long as the other side isn't invalidated a lot of IBs go the way they initially move out to.
I've survived the USDJPY dip by 5 pips even though I saw on 4h/1h that it was going down, now it's back up 40 pips. What can I say, IBs are a big gamble...but in this case nippy was 50 pips stop and cable barely 100. Looked good to go, too, as you can see I was originally planning to go long at 1.9720 before I killed the order
IBs are tricky, they're not everyone's favorite...
Maybe this explanation helps. Sorry, I got to run, my profits are melting like ice in the sunshine
I know they have a few indicators around that give you bars that have the general requirments(a lot of the time they are WAYYY off), but I really don't even recommend doing that. The best is to train your eyes to recognize each and every bar. Soon they all will jump out at you. Then look for reasons to support playing that bar.
Best,
Mike
Agreed, forget all that indicator crutch-clutching.
Mike, help me, I'm scared, EURGBP is on a rampage and now cable is going down as euro is going up instead of vice versa
*wonders if Habeeb shorted the 4h Pin*
Could be eurgbp goes all rise now and euro catches up to cable, to meet in the middle....wouldn't that be a hoot :P
Maybe switch over to smaller size and daily instead for a while?
As long as you have trailing stops you can live with these inside bar breakouts afk, too :P
Can anyone else not believe cable really came back 105 pips from the high meantime euro is but 18 pips from its high?
Market market, what are you DOING!
For it to be a pin bar wouldnt the price have to close below the previous days high, 19.785? Right now the body of the bar seems too big to qualify for a pin bar.
There was a 4h pin bar on GMT 12:00 that already moved 60 pips. That was the good trade at the top.
The daily has 30 minutes to go on my chart and would HAVE to close at or under 1.9770 preferably. Given that EURUSD and USDCHF are not very pro-dollar and that almost all 100 pips came off EURGP rising 40 pips (roughly 2:1 ratio) and that Gold and Oil are UP UP UP I wouldn't be hasty to buy dollars just yet.
I don't have a set target price in mind. I just wait for the market to give me a reason to exit.
You're the man to ask :P
Just saw a big personal conflict on GJ..... 4h made a bullish pin, you took it. Now I see 2x 4h making a bearish 8h pin and daily is at its current position a bullish pin, too.
And already booked +45 from this entry with stop at break even for the second half, aiming at 1.2534-55 first, then if there's no big reversal there 1.2586 + 1.2615 are valid FE targets.
4h picture and lovely trade even though EURUSD had to spoil it by making a 1h PB that never worked. Bad EURUSD, bad! Tsk.
Keep in mind the hierarchies: Daily > 4h > 1h unless there's a top or bottom and a rather ugly 4h pin against your direction like when cable topped.
Riding that 4h pin at the top woulda been supersweet....
Anyway, any takers on the GJ question? :P
And here is the last trade that I am still in and like the Gbp/Jpy have moved my stops up. My way of trading has been, taking a 3-4 small losses is worth it to hit the big runs. So my win/loss ratio has gone down but my overall equity has been increasing. It is more comfortable way for me to trade.
Hiya Mike.
You're totally right. After looking at my charts intensely I figure there's an ok chance we MIGHT see a wave 5 up after that low + 4h pin + now daily pin we put in. That would mean all the way up to the top + 27.2% to that.
But first there'll prolly be a pullback to the fib middle of the daily / 4h pin formation. If that gets violated then we go on down, if it holds we go up. Pretty simple to figure out that way
I don't know anything about waves, but I do love the ocean! Stop is still around 237.50 for my g/j and eur/cad 5250.
Thanks for the analysis seeking
Mike
I wish it were, as it is it's just guesswork
GJ is one of the hardest to read pairs, ever. Only setups at extremes have decent r/r and you caught one, make sure you don't let it die on you for a loss =)
Wondering whether cable is faking out for us here or preparing to enter < 1.9600 today...still short from 1.9730 and a second tester at 1.9658 from my very own petite theory of chaotic guesswork
All them Yen bars are scary-a-lookin....Oh and we had a Gold pin bar, did anyone notice? At least on GMT+1 I believe, daily. Very tiny however and we're still fighting about that 4+ month trendline...let's see.
Chaotic stuff. Well, let's see what happens. Ok, here's another RaczekFX dedication, still same old....
Posted this in the cable thread, too, but they're too busy chasing 15 pips on flashing indicator light signals and calling each other names to take notice
Pin break overnight and retesting low of the first eye was a nice long signal.
Hi Raczekfx, always nice to see your posts
Speaking of the devil, ey?
Please don't forget that there's two conflicting setups - the BEOB and the PB.
You could also view the pin break as a move back to get sellers for the BEOB. Please be careful...I've conflicting setups for my wavecount as well, but not that I'm any good at that... :/
Like I posted above, if the s/r zones and retrace areas go this could well continue on down....EJ made a 1H bearish Pin altho that's a lower TF....
Just saying that GJ alone would already have moved out 80 from the .618 entry, so never hurts to secure the position
Waiting to see since both EURUSD and GBPUSD also made bullish 4h candles, even though USDCHF did not. (IB there)
I went long EJ, based on inside bar on daily, it broke up, I'm managing trade based on 4hr charts, no exit signal yet, looking for a big move up obviously.
westie
There were some nice triggers on 4h, too, that led to the same direction/setups. I have no idea why I didn't take these, I think I was too busy watching the chop on the majors.
thought I would post my gbp/usd trade. I always find myself over in the cable daily thread, watching everyone over analyze the markets to death. It is some real simple stuff sometimes.
This 1 hr pin then formed a 4hr pin. Taking profit from the 1 hour or you can hold with the 4 hr.
Totally agree about the cable thread...
I went long at 1.9612 at the daily Dragonfly doji/PB, cut the long at 1.9650 and 1.9660 and reversed at 1.9650 as there was a retrace to the 1h pin bar open/close.
Price will do this a lot of times. I've also watched price fake out 1 pip past the low/high of the pin once it formed, then do the retrace, then move out, then go back to the low/high one last time before taking off for good....seems to be how the waves move a lot of times....very odd stuff and very irritating to see sometimes ;P
I'm with you mike, holding that cable short, hoping for a daily doji again but this time bearish, a bearish EURO pin on daily preferably, too. Also GJ and EJ seem to be pondering where to go next as well.
I'm slightly worried about a potential fakeout lower on EURUSD to 1.2920-30ish just to flip back long, but I guess that's part of the game...also my USDCHF survived until now, but 1.2500 is starting to creak under all the stress testing.....Mike, help me hold that trendline up
Looks like we're trading against each other once again. I'm long cable from 1.9580. Still holding. Targetting 2.0000 area. Will go short if 1.9540-50 gives in.
Targets for that short, including small TL Mouteki logic
Plus that 4h EMA you know.
But if the count is correct the C down we're in should go to either FE 61.8 100 or 161.8.
I'm assuming EURUSD and USDCHF will do a similiar dance. Aiming for 1.27+ on USDCHF and < 1.2900 on EURUSD. Also 235.00 on GJ tops, weak target hit on that already.
I'm starting to think the pairs are timeshifted. I.e. cable got a timewarp with the hike and went into the future. USDCHF also a bit thanks to EURCHF.
Now EURUSD may be ready to make one last high near 1.3 from here and then perhaps do an ABC lower again or collapse, or move on or something. Either way, the pattern suggests a rise oddly. USDCHF has already gone through this, it already rose to that new high on the 26th and extended it a bit today...
It's all a bit esoteric, eh? But that's what I'm seeing...Those sterling shorts and CHF longs should work though Mike
Now EURUSD may be ready to make one last high near 1.3 from here
Well, there it is :P
Bundy, did you catch the TL ride? I'm currently waiting for the retrace to enter....
Btw, that EURUSD rise coincided with the USDCHF 4h bearish pin bar...I shoulda been in that trade :S
Just like the 1h +4h EJ PB....momma mia, so many pips I forgot today...
that was some crazy swinging in momentum lol. Closed my gbp/chf to cover my euro loss and then only ended up with 70 on my gbp. All that work for not much lol Oh well hope you all faired better
Mike
Yes, it was mayhem...
Closed out my stuff as well. Scalped some small pips on cable, lost enough on EURUSD, didn't get much of the crosses action.
I did however manage to catch a nice oil trade. I'm gonna post some pictures because the basic price behavior is exactly what I keep seeing on FX, too. Move out, return with the bus to pick up stragglers at previous highs/lows, then move out. Usually it's also the .618 from the last low to the last high.
What a horrible day though, have a real headache...
Now 2 strictly daily setups - a failed BEOB that turned into a DBLHC with the next bar. This is a CLASSIC example of how BEOB entered on "break" are NOT a good idea instead of retrace. This is now fast becoming my personal conviction. They can and will fake you out. This one moved out 3 pips before reversing far above the actual BEOB. Would have completely wiped you out. Entering at more break distance is another bad tradeoff as you might be "safer" but still get faked out and have more stop that way.
Had you waited for a retrace entry and setup on a lower timeframe you most likely would not have seen many...
Also looking at weekly you would have known it to be risky to go short.
Always pays to know the big picture.
And finally my entry into the BUOB / DBLHC on 5m from the daily setup and using some of my recently acquired Elliot Wave ideas :P
Still mostly guesswork, but if you watch the daily patterns of the 16:00-17:00 fix and the 19:00-20:00 fix which move oil massively you get an idea of how they form the lows and hooks and so forth...
Can of course massively go wrong, too, but hey, had the daily on my side on this one
Personally I just went short USDCAD once we touched 1.1787, the prior low. Usually we touch the last open/close, just like in this case. I am starting to view the bars open/closes as "jumping/diving boards" like at swimming pools. I think other traders might, too....
Anyway, a lot of pinning on the majors now. EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD.
News based and at the London fix, I am super suspicious.
USDCAD made a PB off the 50% and nimbly nabbed my stop. I admit, it was in the worst place and at a classic "trick me out" price, but still, this is the reason I stopped bothering with USDCAD, about as predictable as a woman during high pregnancy...same applies to EURCHF for me. Oh well, live and learn. Need to get me a trailing stop broker...
here is a pin I am going to enter when it breaks, having a sellstop order in
AUD/NZD 4 hr pin off resistance 365 and 50% retrace worth a shot
Yea, looks nice, should eventually come back to 1.1200 from the looks of it. 1.1240 and lower will most likely struggle...
Currently looking at a GJ 4h PB that isn't exactly super-solid but was originally supposed to work really nice...let's see :P
Paulson is declaring the Yen blastout sale as we speak, so prolly won't be easy unless cable feels lonely enough to revisit 1.9500 soon...
Hey Matty, that daily started the same time I started yelling out EURUSD and GBPUSD 5m,15m,30m,1h pins. But since there was a BEOB before that and on GBPUSD a bullish pin bar etc pp, I think this is just the market trying to say "I DONT KNOW WHERE I WANT TO GO"....
Trading any of these last minute setups is very likely going to be dangerous and as certain as a 50/50 coin toss.
Like already said, most likely better to wait and see what NFP will do and look at the (preferably daily? and weekly)bars after that. And no Bundy, I don't mean those with liquor :P
This chart pretty much shows the ambiguity of the market and the same state I am in currently.
We were rising so nicely in a price channel, fell out of it, tried to scramble and recover, then got the usual "bounce from the former s now turned r channel bottom" which in this case ALSO coincided with a descending trendline.
Until either the PB lows or the monthly high / descending TL is broken, I have pretty much no clue about what's going to happen next...any takers?
EJ and GJ are as contradictory, too, GJ hit a TL and is pausing, EJ is at the pin bar eye level but ALSO on a lower timeframe (4h) made a BEOB and seems to be heavy as well...
Who ken thar yen?
(My best guess is even tho monthly is still pointing up, weekly has gone sideways and we made a high above 121.55 we couldn't sustain. We may have just swung back up to get some decent sellers and if the buyers get fed up enough and the sellers persist, then we should get a dip back to the sub 120s...no?)
Hope everyone didn't indulge in too much bar action over the weekend
Here's something I saw:
Even though Gold seems to be trundling at the moment, there was a bona fide NZDUSD setup at a fib and wave target confluence, which I naturally saw 40 pips too late this morning
Shoulda gone over my charts better last night...
Anyway, this one may or not end up great, but it IS a superb r/r setup as it may be the end of an ABC correction or something that now continues in trend up(zoom out, you'll see it...). well, maybe we'll retrace :P
My experience is that price comes back at least once to the pins high to visit the grandchildren one last time....
hope its good seeking, this is the only trade i am in so far
Well even if it fails it's all about risk/reward, no?
I'm waiting to see whether we get a 1h or 4h setup near a fib retracement of the low of the PB to the last high and will check it out then.
Cable just reached a .618, but isn't near an eye level yet....I'm currently waiting for the market to hint at whether it's gonna go this or that way outside of the pre-NFP range...Currently positioned long dollar, so let's see :P
Mate are you sure that didn't get close to your fib on Friday casue that when I felt the pain... I was long 0.6850 but got stopped out friday at .6780
Hi Turbo,
not sure what you mean. Friday the FE 100 was hit, price rebounded a bit and made that pin. There wasn't a real retrace to the left eye level yet, which lies around 0.6794-0.6800, roughly the .618 and a bit....in my theory usually buyers that "missed the boat" get picked up by the retrace bus and then things move out for good. Either that or the pin fails, as really the move is down and the minor bounce from s/r showed us a "fake" pin bar.
I don't see a good long setup before Friday's close to be honest :/
Facing a big moral dilemma here....I'm in a very well working EJ short, but we've just begun hitting on s/r and EJ has made over 130 pips today, a bit over it's average in the last few days....
If I exit and we don't much bounce, I miss a chance of moving on, if I stay in and we bounce severely around here, most of the trade disappears...
This is what makes it so hard for me to stay in trades for a long time, know what I mean? :P
Mike, this is what we've talked about......I see EURUSD and cable pins, I see overextended daily range, s/r, targets.....
My mind is melting
I'm still holding on until I see something big saying we're done here, but still....arg!
Closeup of the entry area, got in at the BEOB even though it was "against" the daily PB long...but we had also had one short, and 4h/1h looked short, too, plus my ABC off the high theory said so, too..
Went short on cable this morning with the retrace of the weekly pin bar - anyone else short on this one?
Not short on the weekly, but went short post-NFP...currently a coin toss is as good as anything for direction, there's just no real clarity imho.
Attaching chart why...
We just hit the rising TL again and roughly the retrace of the pre-NFP daily PB, but who's to say what's gonna end up winning.....maybe the TL goes, maybe we move out....
Seeking with the gbp/jpy and eur/jpy since they are up more then down, taking profit is always viable. But try a trail on the previous bars high. Unless you really feel its reversal time.
seeking i forgot to say to you in our PM that if you are making a bunch of trades a day, its kind of different and difficult to be holding all these trades. I make less and less trades every week now.
Hey Mike, thanks again.
Yes, basically that's what I'm realizing, too....take less trades, hold em longer, if there's "need" to take intraday trades then trade in the current direction and just add to the trade on pullbacks for example...
I'm going to try and be brave with EJ as there is widespread talk and rumoring of carry unwinding pre-G7 and as long as fear is spreading who knows where we could go.
Usually it's just blah-blah, but heck, if it works...
Not so happy with my other open positions, I went long Kiwi on the 1h PB with a small stop to see where we can go and am long dollar on other pairs...what a mess.
I don't know if you bailed or held on Mike, I entered the Kiwi trade on this 1h pin.
I think we're currently at a great place for our enemies to go short - if we can break on through to the other side (*cue music here*) then we might be good to go and cleared for takeoff....
I'm going to post some pics because Moneybags asked me about BUOBs/BEOBs and even though I'm not sure I'm the most qualified person for this I'll try to answer.
First just for some overview a big picture of the GJ stuff and some unqualified guessing at the patterns :P
And yes yes, I know, the double bottom makes it two left shoulders, let's just say Quasimodo wasn't built in one day
It was only a small one but the principle should be the same most of the time.
The questions are:
Question:
Do you usually play those setups as a trend continuation sign?
Or do you sometimes play them as a trend reversal?
Answer:
If you reach a high with one bar, then the next bar makes a few pips higher high but closes below the last bar, then you got a BEOB at a high. I'd take this as a potential sign for a reversal, sort of like a 2 bar pin, with the second part already feeling gravity.
They also work as signs of continuation as in the attached example - you get a move out then a retrace or a pause, then things move on.
--
Question:
Do you mostly wait for a retrace and then enter? Which fibs do you look for a retrace entry?
Answer:
I'd recommend retraces, but sometimes you don't get them. James recommends to just shrug and wait for those that do retrace I believe?
Not sure. As for fibs - I think you should just look for points of s/r and/or confluence like on the attached chart and usually those work best I find.
Question:
Which timeframes do you trade those setups mostly on? All?
Answer:
I try to look for them on 4h and daily, but if you already have a setup on a higher timeframe they can give clues on the lower TF for entries, too. Just like pins. Say you got a daily pin and you get a 1h pin at a retrace fib line or a BUOB at a fib ret line for example.
All in all they CAN work, but they dont HAVE to. A lot of times in a ranging market you can get the setup and then either: no retrace, moves out a bit, makes pin or simply comes back, then fails.
Or: retrace, then out a bit, then the turnaround. This is why retrace entries help and you can move your stop to roughly your entry once it did move out again. If it is a genuine move out then it shouldn't come racing back past the lowest retrace point after it moves out of the BUOB/BEOB again I guess.
ya still in it, bout the only thing im in this whole week lol BORRING
At least I am catching up on much needed sleep
Mike
Well good thing the Kiwi isn't sleeping.
Unemployment is down and the Pennant has gone active. Hold onto this one, it could go well above 0.7100 if we're lucky
well here was a nice quick suprise i just caught ...small pin turned out nice on gbp/jpy watching lower time frames to lock some profit now after this sharp move
Mike
looks like daily pin bar might break so i may hold this
this thing dropping like a rock talk about a good R:R on that pin lol.. Looking for the 200 on the 4hr
Hey Mike,
congrats on the catch! What a nice one that was
I bet it was to make up for waiting and being .... VIGILANT...all week
Maybe you should hook up with Trichet, kindred spirits and all
If the daily goes properly GJ should see 235.80 for a normal projection, 234.60 for a bigger one....don't you think it's time to close it at > 1:50 r/r at some point? You're getting everyone jealous!
So far the pins low held (like I keep saying, pins break, move out a bit, then come back one last time to the pins close/low/high).
just wanted to correct you that chart is from seekinglight
Hey Mike, are you a collector of my art?
Morning all, just going to post some early stuff to kick off the week...
Dollar still trying to figure out what it wants to do...Gold is reaching the sky as it seems the dollar is undecided what it wants to do really...
Hi,
i went though a good number of posts here and see that james16 and others mainly use bar charting....I am beginner so i am happy that i can understand one, and alas that is candles... I was thinking about joining the james16 private forum but this discourages me a bit... Any info about what are those guys using there?
Maybe, i am just not well educated in fx but what do you think which one is better suited for short term trading? Or is there anybody who is using both??
Thank you for your help in advance.
All the best, xrbor.
Hi xrbor,
I agree basically with Mike. Also what he said about James using bars is true.
I started with candles, too, then switched to bars and realized they helped me see things better after a while. I still occasionally toggle when I want to look for a candlestick pattern, but really I'm with bars now. It doesn't take long to adjust. Humans are adaptable
So it's not really a problem if you ask me.
Since we're posting bar charts, I thought I might throw in a good example of PA and retrace entries at work...
Made this since people over in the cable thread still believe the market moves by the law of news releases and not on PA setups
I mean....even if it were so, the price movement immediately reflects itself on the chart, what other reality is there? And that in turn becomes recognizable...so all news and fundamentals end up PA on your historic chart anyhow
I know this is not a PB and it is neautral but can it be played in the say way. I.E. put a stop at the bottom of it and enter the trade once the next bar breaks the high.
Hey Billser....
I've wondered about these Doji's as well, but there's no 100% reliable way to trade em. They work ok WITH confirmation, but then most of the fun's already over. What they represent to me though, especially on big timeframes, is a heads up, that the current move is running into trouble / could exhaust and be over. Or is pausing, retracing, whichever.
I was looking to go long after I saw it, but by the time I was awake London open had already run away with it all :P
Caught 72 pips later on in the 1h action as I posted earlier...
So what I'm trying to say: doji (flat open/close) = warning, look to smaller timeframe to give me a clue and look at the surroundings.
Things to take into consideration:
Are we at the end of a retrace of a bigger move?
Are we on a TL?
Is there big s/r? (Yes in my case, 1.9405 was on my chart)
What is PA telling me?
Attaching an example of a larger TF with a possible "theory"
ya daily pin, it was 9 or 10 pts above without the spread sorry.
M
Hey Mike
You get all the girls! Er, pins! I wanted to trade the EJ, too, but I was too stubborn to trade a break of it and instead had a pending buy at 156.65 around the .618 and left eye-ish....instead it decided to just up and leave without me....*puts on "Waiting In Vain" from Bob Marley* Typical!
Btw, I'm still in the Kiwi, against all odds
Oddly enough the bearish Pin never broke, had my stops 10 pips below that and I'm still fine...
What a mess this markets been in February though!
Attaching some guess at PA from this mornings cable...
Doing this, doing that, mostly the usual, trying to make sense of this nonsense market
Burning money, so my account isn't as happy as it used to be when it sees me.. :P
What's ironic is that I can see how a single good "sweet spot" trade can last seemingly forever (Kiwi, it's been on what, 2+ trading weeks?) and how on the other hand trying to nail down a rather erratic February market intraday can cost you more than your daily trades make...eurgh.
Missed some good stuff due to things just not retracing enough to my liking (USDCHF, EURJPY...) or simply wondering what the heck is going on (Doji/PB then a normal BUB/BEB, then another one against it again....argh.)
Good to see you around and I think your center is real close to being found
Mike
Thanks Mike, I just hope it's soon before I have to resort to marrying rich to preserve my exquisite lifestyle
Hold on tight to that EJ trade, if things pan out well it might see 159.70+ easy...I think the yen pairs made some of those "could or not have been the best chance to get back in for quite a while" setups..sparked by that post-G7 selloff.
It's still a bit iffy what with USDJPY showing bearish on weekly but pinning on daily...but sometimes daily CAN overpower a weekly...I guess prolly because people have forgotten how weekly looked after going the other way from daily hehe :P
Let's see....I just wish things would have retraced properly so I could have gotten in, such nice interest to be made alongside the positions :/
Attempted a tiny one on GJ upon moving out of the lower swamp areas and starting to climb back over a trendline(which had sold it off for 150 and 50 pips last times it touched it), also signalling with a sort of bullish outside pin and barish something. I'm aiming for as much as it can give me (so roughly around 600 pips would be nice, thanks)...and if not the position is tiny, like I said :P
The usual 2%...
Now could someone please buy some sterling, I want this BUOB formation to work!
Edit: A few hours later....a classic example of why this month is driving me nuts. The cable setup appeared to work, things were well underway at +20 or so, I leave the room for 15 minutes or so and come back to a stopped out position for -16....uhm? Now I know 1.9555 is a mighty s/r and all that, but sheesh...weren't even any news...and now everything's back in the mud...if anyone sees any clear cut setups wave a sign, because it's fog n smoke here :P
Has anyone caught this bounce off of previous multi year high in 2003.
I Love that PA and resistance turning support at price pivots.
J16
Actually have the most tiny position from the PB break on that...but it was for a different reason and I'm still a bit timid holding it....but I'll try to keep it until we hit new highs or blow out the PB or something
Btw, not a great pin in my book, but at s/r like you said, so let's see how it goes...
Nice to see you're still around RaczekFX, always great to see your posts&learn from them
Yes we do, it is basically just the 8 hr pin, since we didnt have much movement today. I never pulled the trigger on the short though, but I think it was a good time to go short being off the TL that is still holding.
Hm, odd, the way I drew mine it's currently holding above it and bouncing around on it...could be close to breaking I guess, but the picture is as always totally messy. USDCHF weekly BEOB retrace COULD be finished at todays high if the prior weekly lows hold as resistance and EURUSD has just been abused as GBPUSD catalyst real bad today....the .618 of EURUSD's last upswing is holding right now, but I think tonights BOJ announcement will be the real killer for all pairs....the carry stuff alone might break most pair's back....it'd just be really odd though for cable to look bullish (it does to me currently, albeit in the usual totally messy way) and for the Euro and Swissy to completely falter, EURGBP or not.
I guess we need some news to help us along the way...
Conflicts all around. USDCHF weekly looks bearish, today's daily looks bullish so far, EURUSD is making bearish signs but holding above my TL for now and Cable solid....big mess. Add Gold dropping 15$ to that even though AUDUSD and NZDUSD remain unimpressed and you can see why I'm not happy :P
Feels like tossing coins currently.
He wouldn't have been stressed but closed or > +150 had he just played the break of the PB/BUOB at the low, hours before the announcement even came
Although I am starting to view Oanda VERY skeptically after seeing them use MANUAL as well as automated news spreads to artificially widen the spread during announcements...the guy types in an extra zero and cable got 200 spread instead of 20 and they had 3 days of explaining and fixing people's accounts....if they're so frickin' honest and 1:1 mirrors of the "real" market in the first place, how could they glitch in the first place? If there's nothing that needs to "fix" the spread during the news then there wouldn't need to be a guy to MANUALLY type it in, either....so much for no dealing desk....
Anyhow - trade daily bars and you can forget about all that nonsense. Let's not get carried away into YABD....yet another broker discussion
We got the Flintstones for the YABADABADOOs
(hm, did I post this chart here already? *scratches head* only been awake an hour here...)
Hold on tight to that EJ trade, if things pan out well it might see 159.70+ easy...I think the yen pairs made some of those "could or not have been the best chance to get back in for quite a while" setups..sparked by that post-G7 selloff.
Et voila, 2 days later, pronto. 20 pips to go Mike, are you psyched?
You better still be in on this! Tell me you made it through the BOJ?
160 here we come =)
(And 240+ for my GJ I hope) ;D
Hate to say it seeking I BAILED! right before. I left my usd/jpy position but bailed on eur/jpy as I let the fundies scare me out of holding to yen positions. I will let you know i made over 150 pips on the emotion of everyone else. So i guess that makes up for it pips wise :-/
Awww
Never, ever, ever listen to the fun-makers They're only to be made fun OF!
Well hey you kept USDJPY, I only took that GJ with a very small position, so you're still golden as long as you're in
Wishing I would have put a bit more on it, even at the tiny size it's at it made me 10% in two days...could have easily been 20% and I'm still expecting some more highs to come...added an eighth of the original position size to it today at the 1h PB, but that's not exactly a gigantic boost
Ok, I admit it - I'm greedy!
But I need the winners to compensate me, I've been screwing around too much lately out of this sideway boredom stuff....hope the lord has mercy on my soul now! =)
the pound dollar looks to be setting up a double bar high lower close I know this is premature but the high for the week is 1.9601 at least on my charts just don't see it breaking out here on friday
For that to happen we'd have to close below 1.9458. That would mean SOMETHING would have to shake the glass again today, and I don't see any more news.
I think weekly will make an inside bar (we barely moved 180 pips) and a break will decide. I favor a break to the upside after last week made a doji at the .786 after the two week PB formation.
Posted this 1-2 times before in this thread in the last few days as a possible perspective in case people are wondering about the bars and fibs.
That would end the retrace and allow us to move out again. It IS a bit suspicious that we moved back "inside" the 2 bar weekly formation, so caution is warranted. I'm still biased to the upside as long as the .786 at 1.9400 holds.
You missed this trade or the equivalent EJ / USDJPY one if you weren't trading and also this one
Other than that, I don't think there were that many superduper trades these last few terribly sluggish days...most of the fun was in crosses and exotics, the majors were dead boring...
Good to have you back though!
Btw, I see cable took the hint and finally moved > those 180 pips weekly range hehehe....like a girl, you just got to spite and tease a little and then they wake up
And since we can't go so many posts without a chart, here's something for people addicted to scalping....I always will remember that one post where James wrote, to paraphrase: "if you have to trade intraday, you can also use price action. in fact, it's the best way to".
S/R, Fibs + PA => Profit
But really, I just make these charts when I'm bored or when price is coming back and I'm trying to distract myself like now
P.S.: I think this was my 750th post Yay! What better place to have it than right in here, where it all began and in honor of James
I want to take this opportunity to once again thank everyone helping others out without asking anything in return and being the exemplary chaps that they are =)
It's real fun seeing you guys at work and this place certainly wouldn't be the same without you.
So thanks all of you guys for being here and for making FF what it is =)
Seeking nice early entry on the pound. Like i told you i was waiting for the break so I got in a lot later but still pick up some nice pips.
Have a good weekend all!
Mike
Thanks
Yea, that TBH is where I just put a tiny tiny small buy order, pretending I'm one very big fat rich bank and wondering where I would buy again
Let's see how it goes...nice to see you got some of the fun, too....really hope we'll move out for good next week after a bounce from the trendlines and not crash on back through...
Had a disasterous hard drive failure a few weeks ago.
...Speaking of dailies.. I4B on EurJpy boys and girls.
My condolences, those give me the worst migraines...the HDD crashes, not the I4Bs.
Already put in a pending long order because I do NOT believe we will go down unless it's a retrace and then I'd rather wait for a reversal to go LONG than to look for a short on the yens right now.
IMHO weekly for all three pairs is saying long long long....oh sky, close to you (they long to be).... ;D
Also I'm still long GBPJPY, shorting EJ would mean I'd go short EURGBP and that just made a bullish pin bar on a trendline it hopped over and on a small PP of mine.
So no sir, only long straddles here
If I miss the short, so be it...
Slightly worried about the franc crosses, EURCHF is looking so heavy and GBPCHF a bit hurt....hmmmmm....we shall see.
Any other sweet setups my sleepy eyes are missing at the moment?
I'm expecting a dollar sellout continuation for most of the majors, but let's not be too hasty on that, has been dangerous so many times before...
EDIT: Curve fitting masterdom reveals 1 pip difference TBH on EURUSD to fit into my long EURJPY theory
Gooooooooooooooo Euro!
Video, Voice....soon James will be seated in in one of those virtual reality command armchairs with 3 screens and barking out buy and sell orders while slurping on a slushie and dictating his memoirs on the side
Since this monday morning has me going totally bananas out of fuzzy market noise once again I am just going to post a bit of 15M sillyness...it's not to be taken serious....just seems like the only visible trade here today was a 15M PB and that's not a good sign :P
And what's happening to EJ, this is against all my masterful curvefitting, nooo
seeking usually u play these buobs on the hr no? Breaking a bunch of highs here too
Edit* Hope u didnt play that one if you do
This thing broke the trendline. Boy am I glad I haven't been messing around intraday. Man is it easier to trade off the higher timeframes.
Hehehe....man, no kidding, what a start to the week...the usual push and shove of the London open..well, I got hit a bit since I was honestly expecting a move PAST 1.9655, not suckering people into the drop..I'm starting to think the people that trade on Fridays aren't the same ones trading on monday
Did you take that EJ IB break? I'm currently quite uncertain whether I should be looking for a re-entry short for a larger correction or something that signals a return to a rise....and I was soooo sure we'd continue on higher...never underestimate murky Monday :P
I need a new crystal ball!
Btw, the EURGBP PB now has level eyes...will that mean more pain for cable/gj/gchf longs? ....
Edit: Ahem......I do believe I deleted that 1.9600 buy stop a bit hastily this morning....argh? Why does Monday-me delete orders that Friday-me placed? Friday-me knew what it was doing, darnit! :P
Ok so I was gonna stay out, but if this pin breaks within the hour I am going to take a small position long. This just lines up a lot more nice
We will see if it breaks.
Yea, saw that too....
Annoying. Like I said, price bounced right off where I originally placed a long order Friday, above the TBH and right on the 00s...sheesh, and to think I could have slept in and just done fine so far....but nooooo, I had to manipulate myself :P
I was a different trader Friday,too ;p
Would love to see price finally go somewhere again, just to have an end to this mindless drifting to and fro...
Here's hoping it goes well for all of us
Edit: IMHO not looking so hot. Starting to wonder whether it's the dollar or really rather the yen...USDJPY is heavy and the crosses are lower, so it may just be short term people taking profits on the carry trades. Not good, reflects in very irrational patterns on the actual pair couplings...well, let's see how far we retrace and watch for reversal signs at s/r and fibs....this must be punishment for my sins
Attaching an EJ pic so this post doesn't remain too useless...spotted this a weee bit late, but I was more intent on finding reasons for it to go higher than looking for this sort of thing.
Yea, I know it's one of my pitfalls, that's why I wrote it like that, too :P
I'm a disturbed person like that, I know it, but do it anyhow....that's that psychological self-punishment part that still needs to be mastered.
Deep down you know things are not gonna go your way, but it's not that easy to let go...I was looking at EURCHF and USJPY on friday, seeing 2 bar signals for bearishness (basically 2x 1D pins), but thought no way, that's never going to work, these are pairs that only go up, I'm long on two of the related crosses, I can't be bearish on this, it'd mean what I have might drop....
Ahem.
Yes I know it reads like I'm totally insane, but I'm quite certain this is a phenomenon a lot of people face a lot of the time....being biased is quite deadly. Next time I'll try to look to short when it says to me that it looks like a short...
Since we're talking about pins, here's one.....came from 1h, made a 4h one, moved a little bit. Could turn into a BUB on daily to complement the drop with a rise -> 2 day PB.
Would need to overcome marked s/r however.
I see you're planning to retire on monthlies already Mike ;D
Seems most pairs tell the same story.
EURUSD and USDCHF look almost the same anyway, just looks like EURUSD might have a LITTLE bit more wiggle room to the upside. Although I doubt the ECB would like a 1.4+ Euro.
So not sure, we either will get a very hot March/April again or...who knows
Can someone push cable a bit so this whole daily PB isn't in vain...what torture this waiting is, where are the fast hard pips? Booooring :P
Since I missed the daily formation that caused the last 350 pip drop, maybe this one I can take something on.
2x Monthly bars => bearish PB, smack dab on the .618.
Who's got the money, patience and nerves to play this folks?
Anyone?
Edit: Just wanted to add this, since it's mindboggling...
"Watanabe says yen carry trade size maybe JPY10-20 trillion, but no statistics available. Adds FX moves this week not unwinding of yen carry as true unwinding will be bigger"
Since people always wonder about where to enter for retrace entries, here are THREE ways:
-38.2% retrace after the last low is made.
-revisit of broken trendline
-general s/r pivot / area
Then just set stop above the BEOB and pray for the best
I have no idea if anyone has ever read anything about this before or whether this is just as freaky a thing as the golden ratio and market symmetry.
However, this is something I have also seen happen several times over the past year and it's a bit crazy, but still something to look out for...
Here's the deal: whenever a wedge / two trendlines intersect, they seem to create a possible "break point", i.e. the intersection itself seems to be a crosshair for a potential breach.
Now I know this sounds hocus pocus, but I think it's one of those "time and price coming together" things, that just oddly enough just seems to occur.
Here's the example for cable, and I have not curve fitted these trendlines, these have been drawn in during the last 4 weeks, before the drop.
If anyone knows anything about this or has seen this before or anything at all, just shoot me a PM or mention whichever book has something about it, I'm just curious
how is that any diffrent than a triangle that breaks to the downside?
My emphasis was on the breaking point. The intersection of the TLs very often seems to be the "soft" spot. I don't really know why, but it's just come to my attention. Might just be a coincidence, I don't really know, hence I'm curious.
Besides, the markets driving me nilly-willies with its unwillingness to do anything after Asia, so I need the distraction :P
wouldnt you have played a long break, and then gotten wiped out as it reversed?
I don't break wedge breaks on their own at all. I just use trendlines as s/r to look for PA there. Again, I'm just curious about the "soft spot"....
BTW, seems like I missed a lot of nice pins today....I'm getting old :S
Mike thank you for your reply. what do you mean by "dead time"
Most likely the time after london and new york close and there's just drifting before asia awakens.
USDCAD will make a BUOB if we close this high today, however it's always been a very disobedient sucker. The carry trade unwind has begun again as indices are crashing, beware.
59Defender, setups are only valid on close. It helps if you post a chart along with a description of the setup you mean.
We had a PB on USDJPY on yesterdays close and we've gone active/broken that already.
I know I haven't posted here a while, but I'm struggling with my own demons still.
Here a small post on Cable. One could have bought the IB or BUOB break, either would have amounted to the same thing.
The 2x1D PB formation gave a sign that things were bottoming at around 1.9180. Please note that this very same area and movement happened 1000 pips lower. S/R are IDENTICAL. 1.9315 = 1.8315, 1.9355 = 1.8355 and so forth. People keep asking how to find s/r if price has never been there before. That's the answer right there.
Hope I don't get visited by men in black suits from the interbanks now...
The most annoying part about the NZDUSD "setup" is that Gold actually did what NZDUSD hinted at - reverse.
Also? As soon as NZDUSD moved 7 pips above the prior high, it just flat out dropped back down to the same level as the prior day's close.
I REALLY am starting to think someone is manipulating this market :P
Anyway, I haven't posted anything to this thread in ages, mostly because 99% of the last few weeks for me have been terrible, for other reasons than trading as well as looking at the charts. Chop, chop, chop. No real clarity, lots of "out of the blue" moves and fakeouts.
Not nice, but that's the nature of the beast.
Here are some things that went on in Gold, I hope they're recognizable, I have a tendency to clutter my charts a bit(but for a reason usually)
hello everyone,
what a fall! (see chart above for the PA reason I took this)
this is my first trade using the techniques i learnt in this forum.
i just closed this out for 50 pips profit.
i am so happy right now and i have jim to thank.
thank you so much. you've made my day. honestly you have.
tom
Hi Wizard,
congrats on your first catch!
Yes, that was a really nice PB (saw it here on EURGBP, but too late, didn't know there was a flipped pair to that..), and took off quite well. Nice one!
Zooming in, you COULD be creative and spot some more trendlines..
These are a bit creative perhaps, but they DO shape price.
If you look at price and see these "angles" you realize there's stuff moving price. As always: if price is above it, they are support, once broken and price is below it, resistance.
hey seeking looks good here too and both euro yen and ? yen reached ema support on 4hr and daily respectively enough to make this 4hr pin a goer?
Hey Swami.
4h is tricky, especially this "small" after such a large decline.
We've fallen out of a lot of trendlines if you ask me and on my chart the most I have is a 2x1H PB, and that currently can't get over 117.00 for good.
Also keep in mind that it's hard for a lower timeframe to stem a larger one after most of the larger one is already over.
I believe Price is stalling at this 117.00 and may just run risk of falling down again unless we make it back above that level and stabilize a bit.
Looking at daily currently, my daily close being 4h away, ask yourself - is this a bar people would buy?
I think it's trying to rescue itself, but currently it's struggling, and all the "following" EMAs on 4h and 1h are chasing it...
Currently too unclear for me to decide, but given today's drop and the fact we're still below a descending TL on GJ for example I favor the downside -> I believe we may get a drop back down maybe even retest 115.50-80 Price Pivot if this goes on.
I'm not a good reference currently, as I'm not in good shape. I've missed so many obvious things lately and made some bad decisions, I'm worried about getting back on track. I think I have a problem and I really need to get over that in order to move on and get past this barrier I've set myself.
Anyway - after this steep a decline, I wouldn't risk trying anything other than a perfect pin on really good confluence + s/r. Also ask yourself - where could it go?
The combined support across the carry trade made this work
Hi Swami, I was just thinking about you
Turns out you were right after all
Here's what after we scaled the TL again with the 2x1H PB -> .618 retrace along with the TL support being tested again, held, and then it was all go from there...the messed up part being, the drop back to .618 actually formed a BEOB which never took.
Price did however take about 10 hours of struggle at 117 first..
I have meta Trader 4....does anyone know how to do back testing on that or do I need other software....and if I can do back testing on the MT4...how do I set it up.
Thanks
Bill
Heya Bill.
Since PA is discretionary and needs YOU to trade it, all you need is MT4 and your charts to go over the historic chart data and look over the charts for setups and how they went. You could start by looking for good Pin Bars at swing ends on the daily timeframe and checking out whether or not they retraced, how much it took for them to break, which ones faked out, ran into s/r and so forth...and looking for confluence of s/r levels (price pivots, fibs, EMAs) where they happen.
Same thing with other formations. I assume that's what you were asking?
i bet not many small traders play this exotic - i don't blame them when my spread is 80.
but this move is a nice example of support turned into resistance. see how the pin bar failed there and then closed back beneath the 38 fib.
incidentally, some people complain about spreads. they say to me: "there is no way i would trade gbp/jpy - i'm not touching something with a spread of 10". these people obviously haven't seen the train move.
Heya Wizard.
The circle may be obscuring the wick, but it doesn't look like the "pin" closed within the prior bar's range. If it did, okay. But still, the proportions are totally off and it looks more like a gamble to me than a proper PB setup. No offense. The Kiwi PB and the IB one I think it was you posted look better to me.
Also spread is usually proportioned to the ATR of the pairs, so it's just a question of using proper position sizing. As long as your stop is always the same, then spread becomes irrelevant, as you think in r/r.
If a pair's ATR is 100 and spread 3 there's not that much difference to an ATR 300 and spread 10.
Some nice posts Wizard, always cool to see someone else catching the PA fever
We're STILL waiting for some sort of decision - above 118.30? Below 116.50?
What's up / or down, USDJPY?
We got another clue as that highlighted blue area held and we got another PB.
Broke out for around 60-80+ pips depending on your entry, also broke a daily IB with the move. Now going to be tested for real strength and valor at 118.50.
i reckon you could have taken these following two trades in 8 months and done nothing else and still come out ahead of everyone else and made yourself a nice living in the process.
want to do the math? these 2 trades made 4,666 points.
8 months is 32 weeks.
32 weeks of 5 trading days is 160 days total.
4,666 / 160 is 29 pips a day or 145 pips for each week. nice.
now there's a conundrum. 2 trades in 8 months. and i feel like i need to place a trade every other day or i'm not a proper "trader". just starting to realise why i've never been able to make any money in this game...
All true and well. Also how I used to view this, when I realized the magic of pins at first.
But keep in mind - just looking at the charts, the size of the pins and the way traveled afterwards is roughly 1:3-5. I mean by this that price moved about 3-5 times the size of the pin. Well, at least from what I can see on the zoomed charts by eye. Rough estimate.
Assuming your position size is 2%, you will make 6-10% on 3-5 times the pips moved as risked. If you take profit along the way, less.
That pretty much makes the insanely large pip figures less impressive.
However if you manage to find a spot to get in a big mover like GJ with only 50 pips stop, and you have a daily range of 300, you will make 2% for every 50 pips it moves in your favor. It's a question of by how much you will outlever the market.
Let me point out there is NOTHING WRONG trading off the same timeframe. Actually, you should, in order to avoid confusion. I'm just saying that 4500 pips moved for example with a stop of 500 originally is still only a factor of 7 -> at 2% risk that makes you 14%.
Don't know the Google sizes, just speaking generally.
An example I do know would be an oil weekly PB. Size was 320 pips.
It moved 1400. 1400 pips, a lot, right?
Still only a bit over 4 x 2% = 8% in 11 weeks. This is VERY good performance still, it's just not as much as 1400 pips would have you believe, is my point.
Don't let the pips fool you, it's all about the sizing/leveraging
The thing you mentioned that you SHOULD however in any case keep from this -
YES it pays not to overtrade.
YES it pays to wait.
YES, taking only the best setups is the way to go.
YES, holding positions for longer than 30 minutes pays off
The only thing i see lacking on what i have read so far is how people are exiting from these setups. This is by far the most difficult part of trading and one that we should all be focusing on and helping each other with.
Hi Steve(?).
This is one of the most discussed topics, obviously. Mike has a good thread on this I believe. StevieT also has a nice way of going about it(he trails daily bars by 10 pips afaik. check his journal).
In essence -
-you should use the same timeframe to exit that caused you to enter, UNLESS you "zoomed in" to enter a higher TF trade on a lower TF, then I'd use the higher one as reference, obviously
-you should realize whether you are trading with or against the main trend or hoping for a trend change to come from this setup (that would have to be BIG then. and I mean really B I G)
-unless you're sitting right in front of gigantic s/r and fib clusters, give it a chance to grow. I've got a 2 day trade on from Sunday's open that has by now grown over 350 pips, and I am cursing myself for closing HALF at 80 pips already
Viable methods would/could be: trail the daily bar with a set amount of pips, StevieT likes 10 for example, or trail behind the last price formation that you find means big s/r or similiar. Or you could allow yourself to feel free to close once you have at the very least three times as many pips as you risked, etc. If of course you're doing a 1H based trade, expecting 500 pips out of that can be tricky unless it is from a spot you expect to become a kickoff for a daily setup. Basically - give your trades a chance!
Oh and as for r/r before entering - needs a balance of not being too skeptic about s/r being impenetrable but also not so silly as to expect 20 years of s/r to go if you're sitting only 20 pips away and entering right in front of it...basically, as James always says - try to only take the very best setups.
I've also found that scaling out is basically great for that "hah, phew, took something, banked it, yay" etc feeling, but it TOTALLY messes up your bottom line. As you said yourself.
Just posted this to my journal:
"Say, if you've closed half at +100 and were aiming for +200.
The remaining half position would need to go to +300 (150 "real pips" from the second half + 50 "real pips" from closing the first half after one hundred =200 "real pips") to achieve the same result as simply closing the full position at +200.
It's a drastic reduction of efficiency, even if it ensures that the "visible" profit turns into banked profit.
I guess it's a tradeoff between making sure there's money made and allowing MORE money to be made vs the risk of also losing it faster again. As obviously bigger stake also means a faster decrease if it turns again as well."
Hope this helps a bit to give some ideas. Basically, give it a chance to grow, don't chop down fragile plants before they grow to be ancient barks and voluminous trees. How else are you going to get enough material to print all the paper(read: cash) you want?
advantages: a) DBLHC b) break of IB4
--- so two pa setups in one bar -- c) current bar takes us so we are currently trading above daily and weekly pivot level (not on chart otherwise it would be too crowded) d) the DBLHC takes place directly off the 76.4% retracement level of the lowest low on the chart you can see to the high a few sessions later
Also if you look to the left, there are 2 bars that together would form a PB like formation. This retrace could be akin to a PB retrace at .618/.786
An entry at I4B break woulda been a nice attempt with a small stop.
Quote:
disadvantages: a) price is, lets face it, trending down. infact, we are only slightly higher than the lowest point this reached in the last 8 years (which is as far back as my data goes)
How is this bad? I'd say the opposite. You're looking to go long and you're at an all time low. Great, there's tons of room to go AND folks will realize these are bargain levels, no? Where better to attempt a small long from? (keep in mind I haven't looked at this chart myself, I'm just taking your word for this here and going by your post) So if it moves off, there's a good chance it could go somewhere and if it only moves a bit and comes back to slaughter you, you at least know what's up
Risk will always be inherent to trading. I, too, still struggle with inside bars for this very reason of them being prone to whiplashes quite a few times. So if you have more reasons to think long, all the better.
Quote:
b) setup comes in "traffic"
This I also don't understand. An inside bar will always be inside another bar per definition.
Quote:
c) price is trading under all short term ema's that i like to use
This is a problem I know. I always think "Uh oh, it will hit one of the EMAs and slaughter my trade". Well, it can. And it may not. The point is - you aren't trading the EMAs here. If you have a setup that signals a possible reversal at a good s/r spot, then the EMAs WILL be passed. How else would they ever re-cross again? Always remember - the market always has TWO directions
This is where you get your emotions and faith in your trading tested. Don't close something out manually which you have set a predetermined stop for just because you see an EMA hit and a reaction. The stop is there for a reason. The trade is there for a reason. Give it the shot that made you enter in the first place. (speaking out of painful personal experience here, too)
Quote:
also - what about this DBHLC on eur/usd daily? i only looked briefly but couldn't find too much to support going short...
tom
Yea, we had quite a bullish reaction Friday, so this is all very iffy stuff right here. Would rather see us move below that weekly PB level again before "trusting" any descent. EURUSD has been tricky, the xxxCHF and xxxJPY have been MUCH more rewarding in these newsfree days. Or the other yielders like AUDUSD / NZDUSD.
Don't be discouraged if it seems like I'm constantly throwing sticks between your legs, I'm still seeking the light as well and could totally be off with anything I write. We're all just trying to give our best guess at any point in time and even Pro's are constantly wrong. They just allow themselves to be right longer when they do hit it off to compensate
Also - it's YOUR opinion on any trade that's most important, don't let others EVER talk you into or out of trades.
One of the biggest dangers of idea exchange and forums imho.
Thanks SeekingLight, what is your name or do you wish to be called by this? Where can i find Mike's thread?
SeekingLight, Seek, either is fine by me :P
Just checked, turns out that thread is in the private forum(James16). Thought it was somewhere on the public side. Sorry.
But StevieT's new method is pretty cool for exits, too. Check out the journal, it's an interesting journey
Basically it's like I said, give your trades a chance.
Anyone eyeing up this inside bar on the daily on Oil? Trend is down and looks like bear flag continuation pattern on 240 chart but at confluence support area, 365 ema, trend line, old daily resistance, near to 78% fib.
A break either way could be valid here. Any comments?
I'm looking for signs of bullishness and the most likely outcome for me is a rise back up. Theoretically a return to 63.30 and then a retest of the low we just established at 61.25ish looks good to me. Going simply from Gold patterns and general oil bullishness since January. Anything above 57$ for me remains with a bullish bias in a long term uptrend.
BTW, it's not an IB on my chart. Yesterday's low is 1 pip lower than the low before - it's encouraging my view of a possible "hit's bottom, makes doji, flips" perspective. We'll see whether it gets to 63$.
Oil has been a very, very lethal commodity - it's one of the toughest things to trade as it's truly a snake and can simply lie about where it's going over and again - on lower timeframes as well as on higher ones.
1. your fib levels are wrong because the spike above $68 that you see on your chart never actually happened.
I'm not sure, but I believe there was a 4$ oil spike when some Iran news hit the market and price shot up in a heartbeat, just to settle back down when it turned out it was unsubstantiated or something like that. There was even a Reuters or some news service mini-article about the jump.
Good illustration of how jittery the market can be on sensitive topics.
However it would still be a valid consideration to just use the "properly reached" high instead for the fib. IMHO it's not gonna make a world of difference, you don't want to trade off of fibs alone anyway.
Confluence of several things and setups at big s/r are usually most solid I'd say.
This is the reason I don't touch commodities.
Gold can be played via Kiwi/Aussie proxy, oil reflects in USDCAD but is also one of the few exceptions of not gapping monstrously on my charts.
At least on FX when you get weekend gaps, you can assume they will close while you can trade the gap.
All the other stuff from livestock to whatnot I'd rather not touch. Also spreads are simply untradeable.
While it's nice to try and find some good PA on all the commods (it's odd how I constantly find people doing the very same things I did when I started out with this stuff), in the end you should break things down to a core set of your favorite and well known pairs / things and sticks to those. Preferably those that obey PA well, have high volume and a trend (EURUSD is a nice guy if you trade it long e.g. or Kiwi and AUDUSD have long rallies, too - only trade these long if you ask me, as trying to short gold, even proxied is never really such a great idea unless right before a meltdown of global scale like we had after 730$). Some pairs aren't as kind or obedient (I really, really hate USDCAD.)
Just some thoughts from my side - focus, practice, gather experience, know your pairs. Don't overcompensate with the amount of pairs/things for a momentary lack of great setups, it's just another way of "forcing" things I feel.
The real challenge is in the live trades, even if just on demo. You just HAVE to take it serious and assume it's real money you're trading. Mistakes are good - you'll learn from them. That's what the practicing is for.
You'll also see how much different things get if you are IN a trade as opposed to just outlining it
At least to me there's still a world of difference
Here is a question regarding risk/reward for those who are taking profits consistently. I did ask something along these lines before but would like to raise the issue again.
I like to scale about half my position at a pre-determined target area so i can move my stop to BE and book partial profits.
However, i am at a constant battle as to what is a good risk/reward for the first target. What do you guys do?
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I was just wondering whether you guys have a pre-determined risk/reward and if this is not met then you leave the trade?
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Do you wait for the break of the low/high of the bar first and then wait for the retrace?
Scaling out SEEMS good and FEELS good, however it usually doesn't DO good. I know there's tons of stuff written on pyramids and scaling and whatnot, but about the only thing I could agree with is adding to a position if the situation presents itself.
Scaling out however, as outlined in the post linked above, just totally decreases your profit and slows down your total growth potential.
I know this, because I am still prone to doing this as well and realizing I could have just been more patient with my trade and ended up multiple times better with the full position trailed out.
The point is - I'd dare say one doesn't take partials off to make more money, one takes them off to "feel safer". That's a remnant of the scared money / unsure trader syndrome and not something that works towards making money. (Ah I see Mike already wrote something along these lines - totally agree there, Mike!)
IMHO if you look over past trades and where you "took profit" or moved the stop - perhaps to be taken out and then have price resume from that very spot - in my case you will find that simply keeping the faith and giving each and every trade you did a chance will do a LOT better. Don't outthink the market, let the market itself decide what will or won't go.
That way those runners that do take off will reward you greatly and the losers stay losers no matter how you turn it. So what if you halve the losses at times, if it means you also reduce the chance at gaining 20-50% more if it ends up turning into a winner that little bit of loss reduction DOES NOT COMPUTE.
It may not feel as nice, but it IS the smarter way of going about it I am convinced.
I'll say this over and over again and if anyone thinks I am repeating myself it's because I need to realize and hear this myself so that I, too, may "get" this, because it IS the one thing I keep seeing over and over in my own trading, too
Retraces - I've seen some small timeframe pin formations first move 1-15 pips above the pin, turn around, go to .618ish and THEN and only then move out. Confirmation of a small PB at this spot or similiar helps.
Please note that this is most likely due to me living on the small timeframes however and may not apply to any other formation than the PB or higher TFs.
Obviously one would like to join price as its heading in the direction one wants to go and not against one
Placed one trade on EUR/CAD this morning. SHort at 5346, SL 5396 and target area is 5200.
Yesterday was a large down day off a pin bar and we got a BEOB on the 240.
Don't see that BEOB. I got a PB at the low.
Same story as on USDCAD in effect(also pinned).
USDCAD doesn't have such a nice channel however :P
EURCAD is an unknown entity to me, but I spent a minute alone with it and this is what I can quickdraw you.
This chart is NOT trading advice. This is simply how _I_ would look at this.
Don't change any of your running trades just because I am posting this.
I just wanted to make you aware of a possible squeeze to either side here. Could be it gets squeezed up, exhausts after a short while and uses that impetus to smash back down to new lows.
Things like to do evil stuff like that
Could also just squeeze out to above the descending TL and find footing again in the chan and even hop that. Trichet is due today, so anything goes.
Edit: just saw the_wizard's post - yea, that 4h PB sits smack dab on that supporting trendline. So unless that goes, it's still got good support. But nothing lasts forever, eh? *g*
Can anybody recommend a good paint software package that is free. I am having trouble with my current one. I need it to annotate my charts etc and post in my journal, so it needs to be fairly simple and straight forward.
The gimp. Yes, that's the real name. But I'd just use any MT4 demo and the text labeling and tools from that.
thought i would throw this up for you, yeah u know me and the monthly charts
That's a really nice looking chart!
These type of setups always make me wonder if people like Raczekfx got in at TL touch and just kept on holding on for quite some money :P
If we at least get back to 50% that should mean another nudge for USDCAD as well :P
Posted a monthly USDCAD with similiar pins / TL a short while ago, you'd be proud of me!
(in the PF USD/CAD thread)
Okay, since I want to clear this up for anyone asking as well as for myself in my own trading - here's a mini-series on WHY IT PAYS TO HOLD TRADES!!!!
So next time when you enter a trade and go panicky after 50 pips, trying no to have all that profit disappear as it moves 20 pips against you - keep these pictures in mind.
PLEASE THE MOST IMPORTANT DETAIL - THESE TRADES ARE ALL IN DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND OF THE PAIR SHOWN.
Let's kick it off on a small timeframe - 4h, NZDUSD.
Also realize it doesn't matter where this happens - we were/are at record highs, everyone was looking for tops, even James (and I, too) got fooled into trying to see a short where there wasn't one.
After that I realized - wait. Trend is UP. I should be looking to go LONG.
A small cable example - please note what this ONE trade could have done to your account with 2% risk at the size of that 4h PB.
Stop size around 30 pips, moved 200, imagine closing at +180 -> you get 6 times your risk. Assuming risk is 2% -> that is 12% account increase ON ONE TRADE IF YOU JUST HOLD IT LONG ENOUGH.
Also a reminder to not overtrade but WAIT for the good setups.
And to finish it off with the nuclear Pip Holocaust - the EJ A-Trade.
700 pips for holding on to this from an inside bar 130 pips big.
At the very least - 5 times your risked amount, if you entered on a smaller timeframe setup, depending on stop, 5-20 times. (5-20 x 2% = 10-40%)
Lessons here:
-HOLD TRADES. Give them a CHANCE.
-There is NO NEED to use more than 2% to make INSANE returns
-There is NO NEED TO OVERTRADE. One trade can go a long way if you can just WAIT for the RIGHT moment. (all 4 trades with around 2% risked would have done 8-12% each / moved 4-5+ times their stop size)
-GO WITH THE TREND, NOT AGAINST IT
If you can read, absorb, understand and then transform these 4 basics into your everyday trading, you've got it made.
And if anyone is wondering why I am shouting, it is so that I myself may actually hear and understand it, too.
4h PB setup. Allowed one to pre-empt the daily inside bar breakout if one had kept it (HOLD YOUR TRADES).
30 pip stop if you were patient and daring enough for a retrace, moved out >110 pips so far.
Together with the other 4h PB trade WITH THE TREND that'd be > 300 pips from 2 trades, each at <= 40 pips stop.
Notice how s/r flips here again.
The reason the bearish PB doesn't scare you is A) because it's just from a TL bounce that's already been touched B) that bearish PB did not activate/move out and C) trend is up, not down. Also price held .618 of the 1.9725 - 1.9809 mini-upswing with that. Think of it as the retracement bus I keep mentioning back to the pin bar high before takeoff.
I think if someone hasn't gotten the point by now then nothing's gonna change that
I just wondered what others do when operating from the UK?
Just look at the daily chart at 0600 your time. From 0630 on things will start to shuffle, you should plan your strategy before that.
Most asian sessions are quiet - so either look at the chart before going to bed and some of the 4h formations or do the morning thing. I'm an hour ahead of you I believe, located in Germany and if I manage to survey the area before around 0700-0800 I'm usually good to go. Exception being those days when Asia just goes berzerk. This week was a bit like that.
BTW, it's Friday the 13th ahead of G7. No wonder the JPY pairs are getting a beating
I took a long off the hourly 150ema bounce but I may not hold this as long as I normally do, as the monthly shows that a reversal MAY be due.
Good one!
I sure hope you held it for all the 300 pips it did by now, at the very least
I've been cursing that an hour after I left the house that very thing took off after squeezing me out. I wouldn't worry about what the monthly does or doesn't show before the last day of the month is there and even then, closes.
As for anything else, let me refer to just a few posts back - stand by your man, er, trade
With a 50 pip stop, that trade was >3 times your capital within 5 hours...and 6 times as much if you dared hold it past the G7.
Speaking of Gold.. Formed a 1h BUOB from that bounce, took off 3$ from there or 6$ from the TL (not a lot imho, but I just liked the TL, fib, s/r confluence).
since i've been on ff, i've blown my personal account, plus a loan from my mother despite being unemployed and worse: unemployable. the amount of bills on my door mat is only matched by the size of my amazon wish list.
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i've joined the pf, read jim's rules / then immediately broke jim's rules / i've become moody and disinterested in everyone and everything. /
this makes my attention span almost non-existent. / i thought i was the only one in the world with problems.
Argh.
Okay, this immediately brings out the psychotherapist and lifeguide mode. You need to stop whatever it is you're doing if it involves risking money.
You need to clear your head and focus.
Go over the stuff below and after you start to have the feeling that you are actually starting to change(this may take 1-4 weeks) and are suddenly getting different perspectives, demo again or go get a micro and trade for 1-10 cents per pip, that works, too. But for real money, make sure you earned it yourself first. Tends to make a world of difference.
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The following is something I believe a lot of people in one form or another should ask themselves. Before reading, please note I am neither trained nor qualified in this area by any other means than experience and reading.
The following is not blah blah or esoteric poop, even if the wording can appear that way sometimes. This is what I have found to be true(or applicable) for basically anyone I know or have met, myself included.
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Motivation and self-image
Why am I chasing the fast money? (Ask yourself: Who am i? What do i WANT from life? Why did I choose this route? Are there really no alternatives or am I only telling myself this? Am I trying to prove something or grasping at straws or? What am I REALLY doing?)
Why do I want this? What are the effects and results on others that I want by/through it in the end and am I only seeking means that could also be achieved otherwise, but that I am telling myself I NEED FIRST before being able to get it(example: You believe you need money to get the girl you want because you have to be able to buy her things, dress properly and so forth. This is simply an excuse where you put a hard to meet condition before a personal goal, thereby excusing yourself for not trying to accomplish it right now, instead putting it off into the future when you do have money. Then at that point you might readily find new excuses and so forth. It's a loop.)
Causes
Why am I lacking discipline? (What are the real blockers? Are you influenced by anxiety/angst?)
Am I trying to manipulate yourself? ( -> You may not love and accept yourself. Change this. Realize who you are.)
Beliefs
Am I trying to manifest the belief of my surroundings that I am no good subconsciously? Am I really driven by my own, independent belief and convictions or are really other people and surroundings influencing me?
Is my self-opinion and outlook really positive or negative?(->Love and accept yourself)
Do I have a firm, unwavering belief in what I am doing and most importantly, WHY I am doing it?
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The point I am throwing all these up is because without a firm foundation of self-confidence, positive outlook, discipline, focus and general health, you will not be able to reflect positively on yourself or your surroundings.
You are what you BELIEVE.
(The simplest example being is that if you feel good, you feel good - you're somehow stronger, more fit and generally robust. But if you're depressed or anxious you will suffer from headaches, stomach aches, back pain, bladder problems and so forth. These are physical consequences from emotional beliefs - that alone should be shocking enough when we realize this.)
This is why you need to love and accept yourself first and foremost. You will always be the first and last one to believe in you, even when nobody else will.
--
The first thing anyone needs for anything is knowing where one starts from, where one wants to go and why one wants to get there.
Without direction, how would one ever know how to start?
Without belief, how would one keep faith during hardship? (and I mean this in the most non-religious way possible, I am talking about one's own beliefs)
Without goals, how would know you whether you are reaching them?
Without yourself, who is going to be living your life?
So what I am trying to say is - find yourself, your reasons, your whys and your whats. Establish belief in yourself and do it for a reason.
While you still have any limiting or negative belief in you, you will always be hindered by it.
Accept that your are free, but also realize that this means freeing yourself, too.
Everyone is already telling you who you are and supposed to be.
Ignore it and ask and (find and) answer yourself, instead of being told.
Pursue what you want and always know your reason(s).
Don't doubt; examine, realize and better yourself.
Don't be anxious; realize, frame and adjust yourself. Accept yourself when being afraid for a reason, but don't submit to anxiety.
Don't despair; realize you are mortal, that at any given moment it is up to YOU to choose what to feel in this very moment and that any second you can do whatever you want
(Remember: all you need to do to raise your hand is to WANT to raise your hand and then - do it. From this basic insight to anything remotely thinkable, the logic remains the same. In the end, all it takes to do something, is to do it...)
I'm going to stop here before this turns into a self-help/existencialistic/whatever novel.
I do believe these things are important. I do believe these things are sometimes hard to do (being honest to oneself and getting to real roots and insights is sometimes harder for some because of various factors) but that these are all essential in ones life.
And so as not to end this on too heavy a note - life is also light, after all -
Quote:
my best mate just told me he has "lost his chi" whilst copulating with a new orleans thrift shop chic
And here I am now wondering whether "chi" is modern for virginity or good health, considering the location
Take care,
SeekingLight
Edit: changed "You" into "I" form, you can ask yourself better even while reading already.
It's all very rough and a bit incomplete, but I wrote this before breakfast and normally this would be a face to face conversation with the person involved. But I think you get an idea of what I am on about.
My question is: Based on the chart below captured just minutes ago on a 4hr chart, am I too late for a short entry? and did I even get the setup correct?
Thanks
Heya CR
That's okay, it's a 4h PB and it's at a swing high. You woulda entered as we moved below the low of that bar. So far we moved out around 35 pips and are now making a counterpin on 1h, but haven't activated that yet.
Quite frankly today is a bit jazzy...
Anyway. You could aim for around 1.9900 in this example, where a couple of 4h highs are at. Or 1.9830ish, the top before we broke out.
Or simply trail a stop behind each bar that descends down.
Currently the question most likely is whether you'd just have been stopped for 0 already anyhow, since price jumped back in the pins face so ferociously just now and some folks like to move up stops pretty soon. :P
Either way, yea, it was a setup and yea at a good spot and worth a shot.
Daily might just end up as a mini-PB or doji as well unless we get a booster back up. Right now I don't trust anything...that rumble was a bit too much for my ole nerves..
Hey razldazl,
thanks a lot, hope you made good pips from those pins, especially the GBP/JPY move, went long from 235.60 and kept reading Seekinglisght's posts about "Why It Pays To Hold Trades "till it hit my target at 238.10. Thanks seek
Hey 2mas,
no problem, glad to see it rang home! Way to go on that long!
If you hit the big $1M before me, can I come ride the Yacht with you?
My question is: Based on the chart below captured just minutes ago on a 4hr chart, am I too late for a short entry? and did I even get the setup correct?
Uploading works again! Yay!
And now I can finally get around to this again, too.
Weekly BUOB last week -> this week bound to be long biased -> shorting is dangerous.
I'll put up the same chart I posted to the PF a second ago to celebrate working uploads :P
Seeking a question for you if youre reading this, for example last night we had a nice pin on the gbpjpy daily confirming the 4hr trade, wouldnt you take that as a signal to stick with it or would you exit as you (if you had) originally planned
Hi Razl,
in this case I closed out early, as the right side of the daily didn't have any retrace yet and the risk of it having it go back down 160 or so after it had gone about 2-4 times the original stop size prolly wouldn't have been so sweet. I didn't like the "where" of the daily PB, even though it may work out fine in the end.
There's no perfect solution I find, you can bail, feel alright with good profit and content, and then find yourself missing three to five times as many pips in the next 5 days.
It's always a tradeoff. In this case, as I said, I was expecting some sort of retrace and closed. So far it didn't come and that's just tough luck then
I had taken the EJ pin. Had I held it a few hours more it woulda done another 50-70 pips so far, but since the last 2 nights before Asia had monstrous index troubles(read: everything melted down insanely, including the carry trades) I opted to book the profit and go to sleep. Don't have trailing stops here.
Hey Seeking, I wouldn’t say so. Look at weekly chart – there is resistance level at 2.0120.
\
Yes...but the bar I am referring to closed last Friday. We opened at 1.9882 on my chart on Monday.
So why would I look to short ahead of 2.0120?
Resistance doesn't make a revolution yet
I had tried to post that chart as we were still moving up, price at 2.0059 as you can see on the screenshot. The BUOB on weekly still puts the complete week under a bullish bias. If a daily setup were to be bearish, like a clear PB with a long nose, then okay, but I didn't see one.
At best things got a bit messy after that 4h PB / 2.0120 rejection, but as you can see on the 1h chart any dip at 1.9990 was met with buying so far.
I know I gave targets lower for a short trade as an example in an earlier post, but that was exemplary for areas which may hold support or simply gave an okay outlook if there were a genuine move down.
So far I've yet to see one and we COULD close the weekly bar in a semi-bullish bar/daily inside bar.
If so, I'd favor the upside. If there really were another hike, cable would suddenly EARN interest.
I had taken notes from this thread and I was comparing them with the book and there is a pattern refered to as an engulfing pattern which is the same as Jim's BUOVB and BEOVB (Outside Vertical Bars)
This is true
Quote:
I have here that this pattern is a Trend Continuation Breakout.
This is the two bar high / two bar low you mean, not the BUOVB/BEOVB.
TBH/TBL. You prolly switched them up.
Outside bars indicate heading in the direction of the outside/engulfing bar's close.
Can someone please explain and maybe give an example as to what an IB4 is and what are the necessary requisites. I have searched the forums without success.
Thanks.
Hi Vlazaf,
that's because that particular bar is explained in the private James16 forum.
It just slipped some people's tongue here on the public side
God, hesitated, then got greedy waited for another retrace... missed that train move ard 100 pips in half an hour...grrrrrrrr
You're not the only one who missed it. Different timezone made for different bars, but USDJPY had a PB on 4h this morning, too....shame.
Coulda been 50 for 25-30.
Actually I find this one looks worst, thanks to surrounding s/r traps.
Considering american indices, unless asian ones tank, these xxxJPY are going to rise.
Same story for Kiwi and AUDUSD. But this is just guesswork
That AUD/CAD PB is not what you want. You want a LONG pin bar at the swing low, not a bearish PB in the middle of things imho.
I'm half an hour past my bedtime, so forgive me if I'm off on some things.
Also that GBPUSD thing is tiny...but if it works, all the better, I'm still short from the IB. Actually pondering adding to a genuine 1.9990 break...still 90 minutes to close here.
Hope this stuff doesn't mess up in the next 7-8 hours.
Actually I find this one looks worst, thanks to surrounding s/r traps. Considering american indices, unless asian ones tank, these xxxJPY are going to rise.
Same story for Kiwi and AUDUSD. But this is just guesswork
I'm half an hour past my bedtime, so forgive me if I'm off on some things.
Also that GBPUSD thing is tiny...but if it works, all the better, I'm still short from the IB. Actually pondering adding to a genuine 1.9990 break...still 90 minutes to close here.
Hope this stuff doesn't mess up in the next 7-8 hours.
N8n8...
The wizard....honest, the only real criticism I had was that AUD/CAD for not being the type of place you'd want a PB(even if it did "work" in this case).
All the other stuff reads pretty confirmatory even now and was not meant as any sort of advice or something...sorry if I put you off(even though it doesn't read that negative to me, I put some highlights..), but I shouldn't have been able to do that in the first place.
The lesson here is one I learnt a long time ago and still am reminded off whenever I take anything someone else who I believe is a senior trader to heart and mess up my own trading because of it:
Ignore them.
Ignore everyone. Really. Make your own mistakes, no matter how stupid, stick to your own plan, no matter how many bail.
I can tell you now - a lot of folks ejected out of that cable short too early, including me. However, I stubbornly held on to a last piece, because really a part of me was expecting more than a measly mini-dip below 1.9990.
And here we are, 90 pips lower.
Just because they've traded longer or more or whatever doesn't make anyone clairvoyant. We're all just guessing at probabilities here.
Point being - don't change your plans or actions just because others have a different perspective. Be an autistic trader.
Don't ignore sensible warnings from your CHARTS, but try to ignore other people because you have to learn and trade your OWN style in the end.
No harm done either way I hope.
And in my defense, the xxxJPY rose like I wrote and a break entry below 1.9990 would have worked fine and dandy, too ;P
Just saying! Hehe...please, don't listen to others, listen to your chart and your heart, not only because it rhymes...
This goes for anyone reading and watching, too! =)
Was me.
I even made a seperate thread, called it "double down days" or similiar. I was poking fun at the 50 indicator systems with it since its sole rule basically was "it's a Friday, and cable just fell a lot the other day".
It's just a rule of thumb, not a real setup. An observation, if you so wish.
All it says is that if cable does one of its infamous drops of 200+ pips on one day, it's usually likely to get a second day like it. Have seen it happen often on Thursdays+Fridays, that's why the mention of the day...
Basically, if you aren't short from above 1.9970, don't go short without a reason down here...
One golden rule always was "don't enter in the middle"....be worse if you entered at the low
USD/CAD you can see a two day PB formed. Also on weekly, PB is forming. We'll know more tomorrow.
Yea
Yesterday ended as an IB here on my charts, so either view COULD make it bullish now that it's breaking to the upside. If we do stay above here, weekly will PB.
I'm going wait for weekly proof before panicking or for my stop to tell me something, as this pair has been soooooo soft.
Still holding my short and expecting to be kicked out today...if not, I'm good with that, too
Edited this for some more mitigating language. Nothing's ever certain and previous post effects make me cautious.
I do hope it's clear that one should NEVER take someone else's words which are just his opinion as trading advice...it's an issue that crops up now and again.
I just want to be able to talk BS freely and be wrong whenever without dragging people along, is all
saltdania,
thank you. you have managed to both allay my sense of anticipation and make me feel incredibly depressed now i see i am around 45 pips down...
tom
If I may comment:
Try not to feel bad about failed trades, try to see whether you can learn from them instead when they do fail. (it helps to use demo cash to learn or very very micro-y stuff..you don't usually play poker with your friends for $1k bills, either, I would hope)
Also try not to let them occupy you too much before they do fail - I had a very red GBPUSD IB short all week - then yesterday came.
It's all part of the game I'm afraid.
I'm still prone to emotions as well, and they remain my main blocker - this is also why I tried to go into so much detail in my post about all of the psychology...
RUR/CHF made a DBLHC sitting on the daily pivot.
BTW it's my first DBLHC trade
Just from looking at the chart I'd say those lows aren't identical.
Also keep in mind that setup is "floating" somewhere in outer space. So they aren't really "real" lows, even if they were identical, just identical bar lows.
The place you want these setups is at actual lows(read: swing ends).
For DBHLC at highs, obviously.
Just like Pins in traffic it can of course happen that they work, but you're trading real money here and so you'd ideally choose the setups that present you with the best position, chance and outlook, right?
Other PA folks can correct me here if I'm wrong, but this and the BEOB/BUOB in particular have this ugly tendency to "exhaust" easily, as the "strong" bars already seem to take quite a bit out of the market if they aren't at boundaries to begin with.
This is just a personal opinion and something I BELIEVE I have seen occur. I might of course be mad as a hat and off my tommyhorse, but I haven't trusted the market a whole lot with these setups in the last, oh, 3-6 months. (The times I've seen a DBLHC or BUOB "in the middle" followed by a move out, return -> PB or simply random bars that move lower again are ugh...could of course just be selective perception at work.)
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BTW, I can however offer you the entry at around 1.6465+ as a break of the weekly TBH, how's that?
this is what I see on the daily chart at the moment. A fib retracement at 78.6% from the high to low of the move from the last few weeks and the fib levels on the "potential" pin bar looking for a retrace to the 50% or 61.8% levels on the "potential" pin bar.
Something to watch...
A
Good catch Alex. I drew that .786 just in time, but that was right ahead of news. Managed to ditch part of my cable longs just as a 1h PB formed and news put everything into warp drive, had to close the rest for not so much anymore after the mayhem was over. 4h made a BEOB, daily the PB you posted.
This one was without retrace, so if you didn't enter on break, you missed it.
Remember, if you did enter on break, the proper size for you risk remains 1-2% distributed over the full size of the pin(i.e. quite small per pip as stop is around 110 pips).
Just thought I'd make an update on the calls I made last night - so those (including me) that are still reading and learning don't have to manually check the charts to see if these setups worked.
All positions taken 1 tick above/below previous session high/low.
All profit/loss includes spread.
Would be interesting to see the stop size needed for the trades as well if you're listing the netted pips.
Technically the USDCAD inside bar on daily isn't stopped out yet, although it may still very well be. IB are a very ambivalent thing to me...
There was a bullish 4h PB on USDCAD that went +40 before making a bearish PB on 4h again, which in turn then also moved 45+ pips and has so far shown no contrary PA.
First stop was 50, second 35 pips.
The second PB was the better one, as it was in direction WITH the long and short term downtrend and came right off 1.1130 s/r and big scale .786 (touch from below).
Also the first 4h PB did not nose down into a new low but rather was inside the prior low as well.
I traded neither as I am still short from originally 1.1500 and am simply watching this from the sidelines, but there have been tons and tons and tons of additional short setups along the way, almost all PBs on 1h or 4h.
Could have aggressively traded most or all of those..
Watching EURUSD, USDCHF and AUDUSD for tonight..suspicious stuff however.
EUR/GBP - Two bar pin forming on the daily. (There is still approx 240min left for the daily pins, however.)
EUR/USD - Daily pin off support.
USD/CHF - Daily pin off resistence.
AUD/USD & NZD/USD - might form into daily pins off of support.
GBP/USD - Very nice 4H pin off of support. The eyes are level at the moment, but it hasn't broken up yet. If it does, it will most likely turn into a daily pin. I'm watching this setup very closely.
GBP/CHF - Two bar pin on the daily, if it closes as such.
USD/CAD - Watching the daily two bar low for a break.
XAU/USD - 4H two-bar pin. Daily pin. Off support and fib confluence. Watching this one very closely as well.
Boy, I'm gonna be the sourpuss of this thread real soon...
Apologies.
On my IBFX, one hour before close, these are my views, not setups necessarily or recommendations:
EURGBP BUOB and the cable 4h PB violating the left eye low => higher EURGBP could push cable down further unless we get some pressure back on the USD.
EURUSD -> PB only by proxy, would much prefer to see a close above 1.3588 s/r.
USDCHF wobbly PB off .786 on strong 1.2115 pivot or s/r, would rather see 1.2115 go for good first.
AUDUSD and NZDUSD not convincing, the latter a BEB, the former only a very evil PB by proxy if at all - it's 23 pips from the low, 29 from the high right now...eeek.
USDCAD I got an IB by 1 pip yesterday which broke up and is now back inside. Depends on whether that pip makes it a TBL or IB :P
GBPCHF also about to make an IB, COULD be taken as a 2 bar PB in the middle of this for a possible larger daily head and shoulders? Dunno...my spread on this is terrible anyway, so I don't look too close
As for GBPUSD, this will be interesting. We look to be closing 105 pips down today as a BEB on daily vs that 4h PB with 60 pips that is largely overruled by this...
Have the same Gold PB, but spread on that is terrible, too here. Have 672$ s/r, 670$ possible outside eye...
Good work isitrue =)
And the_wizard, I wasn't trying to be mean, I'm just fighting this general tendency of people counting their pips instead of their profit..all those threads with "5000 pips a month!" and really they get the same profit or less as someone possibly with 500...since they use 100 pip stops for all trades plus spread or something...just can be misleading, is all
If you can get a 1:1 out of a good looking trade, that's already pretty good and that r2k you posted looks quite nice. =)
Flipped long after 1h BUOB and s/r area holding along with both the descending channel support AND the rising TL support AND the 1.2090 s/r area holding.
BUOB closed back above 1.2115 - disaster. It also went sour once price went below EURUSD's PB imho.
If anyone is wondering, the numbers are an amateur EW count ;p
Please don't tell the other PA guys or they'll laugh at me :P
If 1.2165-70 goes we could retest the high perhaps?
....and again, please don't trade based on because of what I post...
I just want people to be aware of these s/r and TLs.
I would like to comment on becoming a winning trader by cutting losses and letting profits ride because I strongly believe that it is one of the hardest things for a trader to actually do but one of the most vital in becoming successful.
If I may chime in, too:
Knowing when to exit will make all the difference in the world to the bottom line and can be one of the most difficult things. It's tricky to find a balance.
One good "trick" is to monitor the weekly chart to see where you are and then consider things on your smaller timeframe entry. It can suddenly give you a whole lot different outlook than when looking at all those hundreds of 1h and 4h s/r lines, when on weekly they're nothing but small fuzz(read: don't even exist)..
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Originally Posted by the_wizard
The problem with this however is that the really good setups do not come along that regularly and when they do, they often require a large stop. As a result, to be consistently profitable over time it is vital that trades are allowed to develop but that losses are cut short.
That always sounds like a challenge
April USDJPY:
-USDJPY PB, 100 pip size stop on break, 70 on retrace, moved 180 so far
-Two IBs after the PB in the retrace area, 60 pip stop on the smaller one, break moved 150
-another IB/TBH on the way, 50 pip stop, moved 70 so far
Even if closing out exactly at 1:1 with 2% risked each time, yadda, yadda, yadda...hehehe you get the idea.
There've been other trades on other pairs on daily, too, obviously =)
I don't believe 100 pips is a large stop for a daily trade if the pair has an ATR of 100. Considering a retrace or IB entry, you're even below 100.
3 trades a month can be enough to outperform any and all hedge fund managers in the world.
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only ten losses but had wiped out his whole account. It turns out that just three of these trades swallowed all his money because he kept thinking they would turn around.
Stop size shouldn't exceed 2% AND NOT BE TOUCHED/MOVED/ALTERED ONCE PLACED -> 10 x 2% lost shouldn't blow his account..
If he'd let the 30 winners run even HALF his stop size, he'd be levitating around break even. He must have closed after 30 pips or something...
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This trader went on to say that when he had had winners, his reaction was always the same - he would
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see his position positive and immediately close and take the profit – only to usually end up seeing the market continue in the way he had originally thought it would.
Hey, that sounds familiar!
Hence the mini-series and the constant emphasis on letting trades that are IN trend direction run if at all possible.
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But here is the point: Who cares if it comes down an hour later? Or the next day? Your reasoning is that the double top is the turning point. If the market trades through it, you are WRONG. This is NOT the top.
Exactly. Although I just read an interesting bit from a veteran trader who has a Nr 1 rule: you are WRONG until proven RIGHT. Not the other way around. A VERY interesting concept, to be honest. You have no hope to keep since you know you're playing a LOSING game in the first place and start out WRONG, and need to have the market prove you RIGHT in order to stay in....makes a much easier mindset for cutting losses / letting profits run perhaps?
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What if it was only a fake out and the market then plummets? You likely end up frustrated.
Or with a good BEOB / PB setup
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For me, a key thing to remember is NOT to look for reasons to exit a trade once it is going well.
So, of utmost importance - remember why you entered the trade in the first place. With price action you can do this by STICKING TO YOUR TIMEFRAME. If you took a pin on the daily, do not get shaken out by a pin in the opposite direction on the hourly.
Good points. As said above, it's a tricky thing..
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But your reason is based on YOUR methodology so forget the other players.
Especially all those forum people in various threads =)
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So to sum up: Have the strength of your convictions.
That sounds familiar again...*smiles*
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This is not to say that any trader should hold blindly. But try and be logical. Look at price action and let it tell you where the market is going over the time frame.
With so much red news and decisions scheduled, it will be a HOT week...
Try not to put too much cash on the line and take care with your trades guys..
All of last week showed unwillingness to commit before this week, so it might not be the worst to slow down trading to a crawl or simply awaiting this week's weekly bar..
It's a beautiful trade. I just scaled in yesterday... I'm shooting for around 4600...
Agreed, 1.4540-1.4600 seems good
I just realized most brokers have 8 pips spread on EURCAD, I could just short EURUSD as I am already short USDCAD and have my EURCAD after all...ahem :P
Oh, and another thing this makes me realize.....
If USDCAD seems to be headed for the great equal aka 1.0000, then EURUSD would have to be at 1.46 for EURCAD to be there, too.....ohhhhhhhhhhhhh.....buy EURUSD while you can!
WAIT
So you would sell eurusd and usdcad to get the eurcad which you believe is on its way down, but then we should buy eurusd (Im not saying Im going to follow any of this advice just trying to understand..) because if it reaches 1. then eurusd will be at 1.46???? Im lost seeking...
All we(MrTrend and me) said is that if you don't have EURCAD then shorting EUR/USD and USD/CAD is the same thing (short EUR, long CAD) as shorting EURCAD. That's how the value for EURCAD is calculated after all, EURUSD x USDCAD = EURCAD. >>> 1.3543 x 1.1045 => 1.4959
And I just considered that if the USDCAD really were set to move to parity, then the EURUSD at that point (could be MONTHS or years) would be at 1.46 accordingly if that's where one expects the EURCAD to go as well...if the timing even matched.
I was just thinking out aloud, not saying those are the prices that will line up, EURCAD could already have long since recovered, moved on or whichever and the offsets change accordingly.
Speaking of which, EURCAD is now rallying after marketwaves pro USDCAD charts....booooooooo!
Hehehe j/k. Long term, marketwaves, wouldn't you say we're in a 3 of a possible 5 down? I don't see a big 4 coming just yet until we make a new low..but who knows...(big as in more than just 100-200 pips for 1-2 daily bars...)
My bad, I'm also a hobby EWer
But only on real biiiiiiiig charts, the rest is such a MESS..
Personally, I really don't know why a trader should be bothered by who moves what why anyway.
"The market" is a neutral entity, giving off clues of what it's doing from time to time. We try to use these to our advantage and hope to be more right than wrong. Why they work isn't really important; that they do more often than not, is.
I still think one of the many problems is being able to isolate oneself from so many things like the whys, what ifs and doubts included in trading...at least that's what I've found.
That may be a nice PB, but your reward to risk is horrible.
I saw the same thing and I don't take these trades. It's probably right around .3 : 1...
The trendline and horizontal line is the zone where it might stall (target).
AUDJPY had the same double 4h PBs as AUDUSD, but the second one was even higher than the first on AUDUSD. This should tell you which of the two is easier to beat down ;p
AUDJPY has insane carry potential, even AUDUSD makes okay interest. People are quite a bit more reluctant shorting when they have to pay big daily I'd hazard...
Gold has now broken down below the last bullish PB we had. My first potential target (C end hehehe) area of 664$ was hit, too. Next could be 655$ish, 648$ish...
Will look whether I see some bullish setups on daily around there..
We're also getting a daily BEOB on GJ and EJ / rebroke an IB on EJ down so far.
And since I did EURCHF, same story at s/r for GBPCHF.
Just trying to pass time while the stuff runs so I'm not tempted to close out early ;P
And no, I'm not in all the setups I post :P
I only have two hands!
P.S. It'd obviously only be 35 for the stop from the PBs, if you took the DBHLC it's around twice as much..but it would have made a great confirmation of bearishness after the PB + PB + IB break to the downside.
Ah seeking, I didnt realise pinbars could be traded the other way, but if you think about it, it does make a lot of sense so a "failed pin" is an ep in the opposite direction? Where would the ep be just below in this case? Raz
I'm sorry, I don't know what you mean with "ep"?
It's not a PB at the high on the DAX, it's a doji. Different thing -> it's from candlesticks(has no proper nose, it's just an indecisive bar with even open/close and nowhere to go). In this case it's a bearish evening star formation or what it's called I believe, no idea, I personally called the formation "stiltman" (more examples/details in my journal).
And like I said, in this case it was a heads up, potentially tradeable only if aggressive and the real trades the IB downbreak / BEOB break after that.
IB4 (slightly out on this chart but it is one on the chart I trade off)
There is strong support/resistance on either side of this setup so I would expect a sharp move one way. However, on the upside, I am wary of that congestion zone back in December and on the downside you have support zones coming back in from the sideways trading thoughout October, November and February.
Yea, this is a snake...monthly on this futures I have a IB which is moving/breaking down. No idea if this changes every month or what, seems sometimes gets shifted or what? Seems odd...
Anyway, taking it as "real". Then on weekly we had a DBHLC off that 66.50$ s/r which we tried to break for 6 weeks and failed.
Don't have that IB on daily, but general PB attempts and stalling around 61$. I think we're in a zone between 58-68$.
Interim TL went once we lost 64$, fell 3$, then was caught by the lower one.
These TLs are drawn on close(line chart), not from the lows.
Not very clear, but then again Oil isn't exactly user friendly. (most commods aren't imho except Gold)
Sure we could take off from here, but I have 59.25$ as well as 57.80$ as possible targets, too.
For your previous posts I know you've been short long time ago in this pair. I don?t know if you still are. However there is this daily PB that suggests a trend continuation. I like the way the Pin looks, and that is supported by the trend. However with the recent steep downtrend I would prefer a bigger retracement. I also like the fact that touched the upper bound of the channel. With such support at 1.1000 the risk reward is not the best. And fundamentally (what dirves this pair) it has never make sense to me... I never understand the way it moves.
Anyway I would like to hear your inputs. Thanks in advance!
Nope, I got stopped out on my shorts. It was time I guess.
I'm looking to get short again at some point, but this isn't feeling so great.
Basically I agree with all the points you made. So let's see. So far, I am not going to take this particular PB.
Maybe we'll swing back up quite a bit before we have enough height to drop the anvil from which will shatter 1.100, maybe we'll just move on through...I'd prefer more run at it.
Another possible view of 1h (I had my small TF s/r at 2.4127 is what I meant, but usually these are zones, so what can I say :P )
Looks more like a DBLHC though, no? Did move out
Btw, the tunnel top was put in just now(after the last arrowed bearish bar), although with the lows and the parallel TL for the top you woulda gotten a lineup ahead of time...but even though I like to chart, I am not that rabid a TL drawer, so I wouldn't have seen it coming before just now.
I have found that that line of thinking will get a person in trouble. When you trade smaller timeframes, you set your SLs and TPs according to that timeframe. You would've done well on that BUOB tonight...
Nahhh, I got 15 pips spread on that one, that's two thirds of what it moved :P
But yea, that is one of my dilemmas still, looking too much (it's not a bad idea to know where you are) at different timeframes sometimes *coughEURCHFcough*
Sometimes helps me to avoid nutter trades against something "big" though
So have a look at eur now, it went the completely opposite way after all those signals pointing to a continuation down. I think if I had played it from the beginning pin those new pa signals would have kept me in, but I would have at least had my sl at b/e (pin entry would have been just below 1.3587)by the time it turned around. But what about those people that add when they get a pa signal which suggests their trade is going to continue in the right direction, how long would one stick with it? Comments please? Raz
To be honest, I never saw that as a DBHLC (the continuation you are referring to). In my eyes it was an IB break to the downside. Then that 50% fib brought us back and we closed back inside the prior range. COULD be construed as a PB if one merges the two bars visually.
That's why we moved up afterwards in my opinion.
Things have been ugly on EURUSD on that corrective move, there were quite a few "fakes"...
As for when to exit - probably would have been a good idea to reconsider things once price came back above 1.3525. It's never easy to foresee the future, but if things had moved out 30+ pips from the last IB breakdown, moving stop to near the breakout point probably wouldn't have hurt. Tricky, because sometimes breaks come back once for a retest before moving out for good, but in this case I would have preferred a break-and-go if at all, since it's counter-trend in the first place...Danger Mouse stuff
Assuming you shorted that small PB in the middle, a possible course coulda been: enter at retrace, move stop to break even once it broke the pin by 10+ pips, then adjust to 15 pips above the IB high, then to near the IB low. Stopped out on the move back up. Optionally TP somewhere along the way as well.
The original pin isnt "dead" though until the high is broken is it? I personally wouldnt want to go back into losing territory though after being up 100+ pips, but the high is 1.3627...lets see where it goes, currently TBH on daily although day is definitely not over yet! Raz
If a pin moves out > 50 pips and price turns around and moves back inside (inside. that retrace bus I've mentioned before usually barely scratches the surface of it when it does come back and by then you most likely will have already taken a bit of profit) of it, that's usually not such a good thing :P
IMHO, once a pin breaks (and doesn't immediately fake back), then it is confirmed, but also goes "passive". It's like nudging off a boat from the shore...and you don't want to land back at the beach when heading out to sea.
This is my personal opinion.
Everyone always says there's never a good reason to let a winning trade turn back into a loser (this doesn't mean moving your stop out or closing after 10 pips, but it does mean protecting valid junction points, which I tried to outline at the previous post example. Whether those are the best or even right spots, I don't know. Just something that looked logic to me).
unfortunatyl i was asleep when the 1h PB showed up
Tell me about it, I just closed a trade that went +120 2-3 hours after going to bed for -20 after waking up because I was too pigheaded and didn't put in the limit I had in mind...(actually spent 15 minutes debating with myself whether I should put it in or not last night)
Here's two trades that failed on me this week... I ended up breaking even for the week because of them and yes, this happens A LOT.
3rd bar from right -- BEOB with no support in sight. What you would be thinking at this point is that USDCAD is going to continue down.
2nd bar from right -- Pinbar. Wouldn't you know it... so now you're thinking..."I'm getting a bullish signal.. price is telling me that CAD will start to turn up for a small win and I can get in on this... so I better get out of my BEOB." So I closed my BEOB for a loss and reversed.
1st bar -- BEOB. I am now stopped out of the PB for two losses in a row. Will the BEOB carry through? The probability is that it will since the PB failed and there was a BEOB before that but at this point, who knows.
Anyway, just wanted to show everyone that PA is not necessarily the magic way to trade as so many people try to make it out to be. It takes a lot of practice. And there are a lot of these kinds of formations that happen... I don't think Jim tells you that enough.
Heya Mr Trend.
Okay, first of all, everything of the following is not meant to be offensive or as any kind of insult, I am merely going to state my own singular personal opinion.
First off:
James states over and over and OVER again, that it's not the bars alone, but the WHERE of the bars/formations that makes things matter. He said something like "Try trading these on demo alone. Add some s/r and confluence to these and they will really blow you away" or words to that effect just a couple of dozen posts back if memory serves. And there are numerous occassions where people will outline the areas of confluence when posting a setup(I know I try to).
Any PA veteran will most likely sign the fact that the WHERE of the bars/patterns matters most(If not, insert outcry here and flame me to death in the following posts please. No seriously, I am being a bit preposterous here so you may as well *wink*).
What good is a bullish pin bar if it's at the top of a swing up?
Nothing, since in that case I've personally found those doji like things are really a sign of exhaustion and signal a turn DOWN. Pin bar reversals come after a steep fall or rise, not in traffic.
The same goes for the BEOB/BUOB and DBLHC/DHLC. Yes, I know a lot of folks post these "in the middle" and think they are confirmation signals that things will continue etc pp. And heck, sometimes that works.
But you know what? You will get a truckload of 4h bars that are BUOB, then get a PB, and then things fall like crazy. Look no further than Kiwi in this week or various other examples for this. So who was right? The BUOB said up, the PB down. In this case - PB beats all, right? But then again I can find you PBs that get overruled as well.
My point is - all this stuff works. But if you take Pin Bars that have 10 pip noses on a pair that has an ATR of 100+, don't be surprised if it doesn't work(exaggeration). If the nose doesn't protrude, if the PB is in traffic, if there isn't a run up/down, if there is ZERO support or resistance or ANYTHING of the kind, don't be surprised if it doesn't work.
(somebody has to actually step in and buy/sell the darn thing, after all)
If you get a BEOB at the very end of a swing down and the close is near to or at the very low, to me a lot of time this CAN mean things have exhausted themselves pushing down, the bar will close, and the very next can CAN very likely go from a retrace into a full fledged rise.
Why? Heck, I don't know, I've just seen it happen tons of times.
Is the BEOB useless then? No, if you get it at a HIGH you can use it beautifully. No idea why I'd want to sell the lowest point on a chart, even if it's a BEOB. Just doesn't feel right.
One golden rule has always been: Don't enter in the middle.
So why enter a short at a low?
Just seems risky as heck to me. Confirmation:yes. Entry: no.
Now, the engulfing stuff. I know what the definition says, but I can tell you from my point of view that simply spiking above and below the prior bar does not make you a proper engulfing bar.
The body of the candle/bar (open to close) is what has the most weight IN MY OPINION(this is why some folks draw solely line based charting) and I think I've seen FXV and other folks (possibly Habeeb? Sorry both of you if I'm completely wrong here) also emphasize that the "really good" beob/buob are those that engulf the prior body with their open and close, not low and high. At least my tired mind (1am here) tells me I read this in a lot of their posts.
Now, as for trade management - you could just move the stop and let the market decide whether it's a pin when one shows instead of manually flipping. An often heard quote (or maybe it's just what I have to constantly tell myself, because I do have to a lot) is: don't try to outsmart the market, let it tell you what it's doing on its own. I've done my share of flipping positions instead of letting my stop tell me which outcome would occur and guess what, I messed up things more than simply leaving my hands off.
Straying off a bit: Considering this was USDCAD we were talking about and we're pretty much below 30 year lows or something with no s/r left on my charts, it's rather a shot in the dark trying to stem a 1000 pip drop off a small daily PB.
As you said - weekly here to me would be the minimum I want to see for this thing to even start to tell me it's over.
Think scales, think weight tipped to one side...
Also remember the steepness -> pin bar part, PB being a rash decline and a rash retreat of suitable proportion that shows a STRONG rejection of an area.
The gist is - the really hard part of PA is learning to properly apply it and knowing how the where and the when matter. There's a reason Jim bangs on and on about 3 months on demo, starting on a high TF and only after mastering it stepping down one.
It's not child's play, nor should it be made to look like it, but it CAN be easy and applied easily if you learn it well, have truckloads of patience and learn the simple lesson that one good trade a week can make more money than 5 hopes-and-wishes trades.
That's another one learnt from my own malpractice, errrrr, trading
God, I hope I don't get a "post too long" error...
Take care y'all, and like I said Mr Trend, no offense
I found out after a few years under my belt, that all of the people who think they know that it's going to stop at an all-time low are the ones who get killed. Weeks ago, the DOW made new highs... had you shorted it then, you would've still been getting killed to this day.
I always love how people say, "Oh, heck no, it can't go down any further...", then they get destroyed.
I completely agree. I even posted something like this almost word for word myself on a Kiwi long I took at the end of March/start of April (it's mentioned in my journal in the PF). *smiles*
That wasn't the point I was trying to make though.
I was trying to emphasize how important confluence is to good setups and that it's - my opinion here - usually a better idea to short the end of retracements/pullbacks(short to medium term upswing) in a downtrend e.g. instead of the very low for a continuation trade.
Even if it goes on another 800, you won't know until it does, but if it retraces and then signals it's going back short, you've already got the size of the retracement as buffer before it even attempts to break the last low again. (I've neither implied nor said it has to stop anywhere. Heck, the Canadians might end up being able to buy America, how'd I know? Hehehe)
Hint: since you know "BASE": check out 4h and you can see where you got great spots to use for pullback entries on USDCAD.
This is just my view on it of course, and waiting for retracements can also mean having to watch things move without you for a looooong time.
I just think there are less risky trades one could take. (That was one of my points, along with that one should not try to outguess the market. That applies to any behavior, including where it should stop making new lows or highs as well.)
That's also what I meant about the PB. Putting aside how much it could have turned price or not(we just don't know ahead of time), it was simply a question of finding enough reasons for you to figure it's a "good setup". If you had those and thought it was a good pin, then everything's cool
I agree with Mike when he says there's nothing wrong with entering and exiting trades, just be sure that you have a reason for it and aren't doing it on emotions. I'm prolly paraphrasing really, really badly right now, but check out his posts and threads on the PF(although he prolly said so here before as well). But I bet you know what I mean
Hope this clears things up a bit regarding my "essay". Just don't want it to be taken the wrong way =)
Take care and let's hope we exit the chop zone soon...
Hi Khan!
I think you meant AUDUSD
I'm not James, but if I may throw my chip in: it's a very nice PB(long nose:check, pretty much level open/close: check, small body: check) BUT it is right in the mdidle of other bars and near the lows of the last 3 weeks.
So the positioning isn't so hot.
Preferably you'd want this one to appear after it's made a bit more room for itself (i.e. good pin bars prefer to live without too many neighbors, ya?), i.e. retraced or pulled back first. Yeeeees, I know, I just posted the very thing a second ago, see how fast things come back to apply!
Just my personal opinion =)
But good job in picking a good looking one(so many other posted PBs need to visit the Rhinoplasty bad!), keep it up
Swing high, .786, s/r, even retraced nicely, fell.
Bar itself was tiny however, just under 90 pips and shorting a carry trade is always like spitting against the wind.
I guess this pair is also the reason cable is getting such a drag down and EURGBP a relief..
Just wanted to post something since I'm deathly bored...
EURCHF monthly short PIN (against trend) triggers at 6410 stop 6610
EURCHF weekly long PIN off 23% retrace, previous support, with trend triggers at 6545, stop 6440
I will take the weekly entry (if triggered) & monitor the monthly
It's pretty unclear to me on those timeframes at the moment.
4h:
Missed this one since it formed at 6 AM and had already done the retrace :/
Shame, 1.6500 was a safe bet (head and shoulders projection off 1h)
GU is approaching 61fib (apr18, may21)
For those who are long cable, what are your TPs?
R
Heya Raczekfx, always nice to see you posting =)
My perspective would be:
If I were to take partial profit, this 1.9900 are woulda been okay I guess(it's currently starting to endanger my 1.9892 s/r again..).
The whole 1.9860-1.9940 zone has been a decision point and I think we need to clear 1.9925-40 to get a push towards 1.9990 and above again.
I am currently looking to trail this (stops are equal or greater than break even) instead of taking profit as I am currently trying to let the market show me my exits more again..even though I've been cursing about those "move out, come back completely, give nothing" trades for the last 4 weeks...
Never know when the next burst might come, Kiwi and Aussie made me a bit hopeful, hopefully not wrongly so
Hello SL,
I hope you're doing well.
We're pretty much on the same page.
p.s. side note: just watching eur/cad action today. it looks, usd/cad correction is overdue even though it doesn't show any 'favorite' PA setups. It'd be nice to get in on another test of 1.0530/50
Coolies
Thanks, I'm doing okay lately, been through a rough patch the last few months, but I think I'm starting to get some traction again =)
Hope you're good, too!
As for EURCAD, I hope EURUSD will do most of the rising part, hehehe..it's the same story as USDCAD, David vs Goliath if you ask me.
Reached .786, pinning on my chart, but christ, there's so much momentum, it' prolly just gonna crrrrrrrrrrrush everything, think avalance
P.S. See how I've begun loving trendlines in the chart? You're partly to blame for that!
Mike, you're posting extremely valuable stuff as always
Everyone, read his posts, it's indispensable stuff, really!
I just wanted to post something else. Not really PA related, just a bit of basic "things I've noticed".
Basically just a potential "wedge" topside, just that I couldn't find much to connect the lows with in this rise :P
But whenever things get "capped" like this, to me it's a sign someone is establishing shorts systematically and things are prone to give in at some point. We've had a similiar thing on EURUSD, but without the MACD divergence. At least EURUSD had dojis and PBs, this Kiwi didn't really do anything proper besides spike around :P
Nevertheless, it was the reason I got out of my Kiwi long.
I usually trade these as expanding bearish triangles, the lower lows symbolise the intent and the spikes banging against resistance and subsequently faded by closing below previous highs are as close to a 'grail' trade for shorts in my arsenal. Well spotted Mate!
Thanks a lot =)
Glad to see I'm not alone in my crazy "I think I'm seeing something" world
Have a look at the aud/usd pair for this week. It was really confusing...at least to me. At point 1, we get a nice PB. But I skipped this trade because it would be a short position against the major overall trend. At point 2 we got a nice PB telling us to go long, but never got the 10pips above PB entry signal. However, a couple bars later it retraced to halfway down the PB so I entered long with a small stoploss below the PB. At point 3 we get another PB signalling a long(almost took out my stop).
@Tw0eleven:
1 was more of a neutral bar, it dropped too much the same day else it would have looked nicer, but it is as it is.
2 and 3 are in traffic, 3 not a nice shape / not big enough / in traffic as I wrote.
And @Spence:
A pin bar has it's open and close preferably level and not too far apart and it has to close within the prior bar's range. You labeled at least one bar that doesn't meet that criteria on your chart.
Sorry for being a bit short / grumpy, I spent most of today outside, got torrented away in rain and am dead tired :S
Anyway, just wondering if anyone else took this trade?
Hi!
I did as well. Moved stop to 1.3300 (+4), waiting to see where it dies.
Will readjust once I see it establishing itself properly above 1.3400 again.
Originally had planned to exit a small position at 1.3365 and keep this larger one until whenever I felt it was time to leave, but I ended up closing the small one for +10 during the day of chop. No matter.
I agree with Mike, as usual, and would just like to say that how you exit is often crucial. I am trying(emphasis on try as you can see above) not to exit blindly so much anymore.
So many and many times I took positions or part of them off at junctions without any real reason / PA signals and then saw things move on another 200 pips or 2-3 days or more etc pp...we've all been there I believe.
Finding sensible places for stops and a balance for trailing vs closing is the hardest part.
Either way you do it, be sure you looked into it being a good thing to do for YOU and that it WORKS. Simply doing it because you're scared of "giving back so many pips" alone is not a valid reason.
I also want to take this chance to congratulate all new and old contributors to this thread and to everyone (like razldazl) putting in all the hard work and seeing it pay out: keep it up, you're all doing a great job!
I'm on the same wavelength as Mike.
I entered long on the pin and now have placed my stop under the current 2 Bar Low/DBLHC.
I'm currently not that comfortable in taking DBHLC or DBLHC setups just on their own. Maybe a retrace or something, but entering right now in EURUSD for myself would be risky. (unless a more solid signal comes up)
But since I'm already long for this pair, I see this DBLHC as a possible trend continuation sign. who knows.... (the weekly pin is nice as well)
Tom
Hi!
I'd just like to chime in. As usual, Mike's way is pretty much the soundest reasoning. Get in at the start of the move, let the market tell you when to exit. It's good stuff.
As to the DBLHC for entries: that's fine, it's a good setup for that, BUT, and this is what I've tried to explain many times before, it's the WHERE that matters here.
This one is pretty much smack dab in the middle of things and during a rise, i.e. in the same direction. If it had been at the end of a correction and appeared at a bottom as a reversal sign, that would have been a lot nicer.
Remember, entry at the beginning of moves.
As continuation it might or not work out. Personally I believe we've hit a bit of s/r at 1.3435 with EMAs, a trendline and general s/r, so for a real sign of strength we would hav closed above 1.3440, which we did not.
So let's see how we go. Just saying, staying in and trailing would be fine, but adding to or entering with s/r about 5 pips from your forehead is most likely not the best idea
Still am superbly curious to see where that weekly PB gets us.
Once again you have shown me just how little i actually know.
I don't know if i fully understand you lesson but i am going to try to better incorporate an understanding of where the PA is relative to the bigger picture.
Cheers
Ademac
Heya Ademac
Doubt that I know much more than you really
I was just saying how I try to look at things.
As for the "lesson", I just meant...well it's the same with any setup really, what good is a reversal PB if it comes in the middle of a lot of clutter or move?
I'm not the one who invented this stuff, James and others have all pointed this out loooong and many times more before me poor old soul
It never hurts to illustrate how important your "surroundings" are though.
We have a working PB in USDCHF in W1 off MA 89-100, it has been +40 pips, will close it at 1.2300 and trail it.
Hey Mason,
I'm sorry to say that is not a pin bar, the close was not within the prior bar's range and there is no body. It's more of a bullish bar than anything, but really just crooked.
Definitely not a PB.
In my opinion even a simple slope-change-MA system can continuously grow your account if MM is applied stringently (and the markets show reasonable trend following behaviour)
I hope somebody made money on that aussie drop anyway
Been short since 0.8472 (2x4h PB which turned into a big daily BEOB).
USDJPY fell 180+ pips off its high, AUDJPY (PB) fell over 300 pips, GJ (4h BEOB off the very high) 375+, EJ (big 1h BEOBs twice) 260+... (not saying I am in all of these, mind)
Things are getting slippery. Pretty extended levels here.
Hope you folks can see how powerful nice pin bars off extreme highs can be - IF you hold on to them.
Why do I mention this? Not because I'm upset about not getting all those pips, I just wanted to use it as another example for the newbies that: When you are patient and wait for those "good" setups...take the trade, Trust the trade, and let your profits run!!!!
This is by far the best method I have ever seen and tried. Thanks again to all who have posted on here!
Had to quote the important part
Way to go 211! Have a great weekend and congratulations on the excellent trades
i agree. I am a web dev/ programmer so the alert can be made into a small client program if necessary, or simply email
..and then you get woken up in the middle of the night for an IB which has the shape of a PB and is completely engulfed and not valid at all...what a party...
People, you don't have to catch every bar ever made to be profitable, 16 hours awake every day are PLENTY chance to catch big moves and if not on 4h, there are DAILY bars that are not that much worse...
Don't be chasers, that sort of approach can prove highly detrimental...and boy, do I know
Automation never can nor will replace discretion for this sort of trading, although you will end up trading it almost automated at some point if all goes well ;P
At least Mike's shown us all a good example for that
*straight no chaser springs to mind....<3 good music*
Here is the EUR/JPY long trade that I just took @ 116.65. It's based on the trend line and 1HR PIN. I normally don't do 1HR stuff and this is too good to pass around :-)
S/L is moved to BE right now.
Ken
RE: EJ
That was a brief stint above 167, wasn't it? :P
...so much for "the carry is still very much alive"
10 minutes to a 4h PB here. Keeping in mind daily IBs have two sides ;p
I'm just about to exit 75% of my position on this trade.
Reason: TL, another PP and 50fib ret.
R
On my charts we're already above the descending TL, on bar as well as line chart. 4h however. 123.70 will be the true test of this rise. Once we establish base camp above 123.50-70 we will get a first shot at 125.xx I'd say.
Got the same trendline from late February and am wondering what happened to all those people constantly talking about the "fourth touch is the kiss of death".. I count around 5 touches now
Each one worth around 200+ pips...eeek! Where's that timemachine!
PB's have not worked well for me with USDCAD for a long time. When first going through this thread I demo traded the USDCAD and PB's did not work well then either.
I think you have to acknowledge fundamentals once in awhile even when using PB's, and each pair is different. For USDCAD look at oil prices, since the US imports a lot of oil from Canada, going long right now doesn't work IMO.
That's a lot of BS imho, no offense (fundamentals and oil having much to do with stuff working on USDCAD or not. Charts will work or fail on their own merit imho and the other stuff is a nice headsup which I will immediately admit to referencing as well, but I won't ever say hey there's oil rising so USDCAD has to fall now or enter a trade based on one factor alone, no matter which factor that is. I've seen a lot of decorrelation of Gold + exotics and Oil and USDCAD).
USDCAD this time around worked because EURCAD finally hit it's .618 retracement as well. Since EURUSD remained strong USDCAD had to fall to get that retrace done. Sounds messed up, but that's what it was in my personal conviction. USDCAD also underperformed EURCAD miserably today obviously, as we got a major selloff of the USD.
Here's the .618 retrace of the daily, weekly AND monthly PB on eurcad which ended in a daily PB and then took off insanely hard today.
Left it behind myself for +120 since I wanted to stay bearish on the USD (am long EURUSD) and not depend on USDCAD to rise as well - which it did nonetheless.
This was one of the best trades you could get. A PB at .618 retrace, three timeframes agreed AND EURUSD had shown 4h bullish setups as well. Also s/r. I can't invent any more reasons to scream "this will rise" more loudly.
I'm newbie. I have read several page and jump to the last page cause it is too many almost 300 page. My questions is where can I read how to use this strategy? and is it James16 always post his trade? What time usually he post it?
Thank's guyz.
Hi Asen.
I'm afraid you'll have to read at least the first 60-100 posts to get an idea of what the whole shebang is about
James doesn't announce or publish his trades here, he only posts examples and explanations about the way price action itself works.
If you really want to learn these tools you will have to put in the time to study them properly, as with anything. But in turn it WILL pay off. No rush, market's not going anywhere
Well after a good down trade, it's time to move up, we might have a small pin bar closing formation...
And if we think that USD is undervalued, tomorrow it could be a good day for USD.
Anyone looking at this trade?
Don't think in terms of over-/undervalued.
And I'm going to go out on a limb here since I haven't researched this and this is just a rough guess, but Pins on 4h shouldn't be smaller than 30% of the daily ATR of a pair, else where is the "strength" supposed to come from if the market can't even stem more than a third of the usual range?
Pins under say 30 pips are extremely risky stuff on almost any pair, hence everyone always mentioning long noses
These figures are all a bit off the top of my head, but my point is that 10 pips are not worth being called a bar of any kind
Just be careful that you aren't seeing things only because you WANT to see them there if you know what I mean =)
knew that this was not a strong pin bar, but I wanted to enter on some trade
This is the number one reason people lose money in forex and I think I can include myself in that statement. I've had so many trades I ended up wondering "why the heck did I just take that trade?" and had to confess to myself that I just wanted "to be in".
DON'T DO THIS!
It is the single most surefire way of losing money fast. The trick is, and I just posted this elsewhere as well, to wait until the time is right and then making that one trade that matters.
Not the trading makes you the money, it's the waiting that does.
Speaking of I4B and Inside Bars, here's a nice example of a current I4B for GBPCHF.
I like it when the bars wind up by having the range get smaller and smaller.
As you can see in this example, each bar is smaller than the previous one which shows price is consolidating. Usually this pattern signals a strong break to either side. This could be a good trade.
Tom
This pair has just been one big migraine *g*
Basically the last 4 weeks have said 2x bearish PB, 2x bullish quasi-PB. Great, there's a lot of direction for ya. Monthly is currently a 266 pip IB so far as well.
The reason for this is obvious - with the massive USD selloff USDCHF periodically gets under pressure, which in turn drops GBPCHF. Then there's retracements, which are overemphasized on USDCHF, so it rises again.
As long as there's no clear outcome or a big "hold" on USDCHF while GBPUSD rises away merrily or a giant surge in USDCHF as GBPUSD only weakens gently, I don't know what's up with this one.
As a carry trade it most obviously favors the upside, but until it clears 2.4565 / 2.4600 decisively this thrash between 2.4555 and 2.4300 is just rather ugly. I'm staying away, these sort of IBs right inside the middle of ranges aren't as safe to play as the breakout of the whole range and that in turn would be gigantic.
"Good" IBs are the ones like USDJPY a week ago which was one bar, small and smack dab on s/r. This here is simply middle stuff and one mantra I repeated over and over and over again even in my noobie phases (even if not always following it) was: NEVER EVER ENTER IN THE MIDDLE.
Mileage may vary, different strokes for different folks, we're moving on up...oh. Er, well, you get the idea
Just my personal perspective, not any recommendation.
BTW the arrows point at s/r spots to illustrate flips, not at bars / setups.
The break of support which was triggered by a 1hr pin bar was a great place to double up and I am glad I saw it.
Well at least someone managed to stay in the added-to position. My added 1.0493 short was wiped +0 as we got as high as 1.0495 before resuming the drop. At least the original position is still fine.
To follow up on the parallel EURCAD setup here's how the 4h head and shoulders PB panned out after also kicking me out at +3 to see a proper continuation to initial HNS target (FE 100 marked blue on chart).
This is the much-mentioned "retrace bus" I always posted about :P
Don't see either in valid PB territory yet and currently most pairs are a coin toss(50% chance of doing what you want them to or not).
Still 3 hours to go to GMT candle close on daily here.
Doh! Hehehehe...well I can't betry my Kiwi long ;p
Admittedly, AUDNZD is crashdiving, so there you go, we can both have our cake AND eat it ;p
And you're cheating, that's a North Finance feed PB, I don't watch those ;p
lol I stopped for awhile, but after missing a bunch of nice ones on this feed I am back too it now(especially that usd/cad one)
Tell me about it. I bitched and moaned about missing that one in my Journal enough, so I'll be content that I got the daily entry instead. Now if someone could tell the players to resume selling USD please, I want to get to levels where I can ditch my positions :P
OK, so what are we thinking about daily pin bar on GBP/USD???
And what about that triple bar thingy right before it ???
I say I trade it but only for about 20 pips..., then close out half the trade and hope it really goes to about 2.0219 at 23.6 fib line...
But then, I am really worried about th triple high bar deal...
Thanks for thoughts... !!!
Hi.
I would say that is not a PB in any way. The open/close isn't level enough, there is really no nose and it's imho just a reaction from the psychological 2.0400 on first touch on a lethargic Monday. I could of course be wrong.
As for the triple high, if you're creative you could say that's a breakout attempt higher.
Some creative explaining of how I'm trying to interpret what I see on my 4h chart :P
I'm still biased long until a bigger setups says no go. Weekly was a BUB and sideway pause mode without too large a dip usually indicates - to me! - buyers are as of yet unwilling to yield most of their positions.
The 2.0400 reaction was a good indication to me that the round number targets as simple places to TP are still very much valid for some traders
But since we aren't trading sub-2.0300s at the moment there's still hope for a nudge up today imho...but since this isn't the cable thread I'ma hush with silly opinions now and wait for PA
This is what I meant about GBPCHF. Triggered one of the smaller / more inside bars, fell in one fell swoop on CHF news then instantly came back as cable breached 2.0400 again and USDCHF is holding 1.1985.
It's SO much nicer to be long GBPUSD at the moment for me than to watch this harrowing rollercoaster ride of who's moving where faster on the chart (swissy vs cable, resulting in GBPCHF movement).
There are several higher prices one could have used to trigger the IB entry, but if you start doing that then I personally would end up somewhere around 2.4600 and that's not what it's about :P
So far a long break entry would still be doing fine however, I just wanted to point out why I don't like this middle stuff for IBs, since this is what I got most of the time.
Ties in well with the "the WHERE matters" stuff for me.
Update: GBPCHF clearing 2.4530, looks like the catapult is on its way
Seeking - are you looking at the pin bar on Crude?
Haven't got access to Oil, commodities and stocks anymore ever since I left those thieves and crooks at finspreads behind. Good riddance, too.
No. But Oil is trending up strongly and I expect 80$ to be hit soon.
It's been a buy ever since 5x$ really and the closer summer got the easier it would have been to make money. The last "simple" trade was a weekly breakout of the 60-67$ range. There were also some really really nice weekly PBs on this pair. Daily has been far too noisy for this pair for me in the past and I've found out it is much more prone to losses than anything else if not traded "right".
Just was not worth the hassle to in the end. FX behaved a ton nicer in comparison, but that may just be my perception.
Also 1.2 pips spread on EURUSD are so much more preferable to 8+ on oil
I can toss some weekly charts around though if you want?
Thank you for the Oil charts Seeking - some great opportunities there and very useful information!
No prob.
On a related topic - my USDCAD closed at +91, was long due to a 4h PB just before news but closed for -3 or so since I didn't want to gamble. I see it would now be +50 ;p
However my EURCAD long is compensating, so not whining.
Just mentioning it since people were posting their exits.
My reason was a 4h PB off 127.2% and 1.0400.
Had I not exited when I did most of the profit would have gone "poof" as I had moved my stop down quite a bit last night.
instead of taking profit and lowering the stop to BE, something that is being said here by Jim and everybody else, many many times over, I left and went to sleep thinking that by the morning I will make a killing here (greed took over).
You probably already guessed how it ended ...... a huge loss!
I am trading in a Demo simply because I have not learned to be disciplined enough in my trades and I find this to be my main obstacle to successful trading.
Well these things happen. Considering we've been tunneling sideways you might have had more incentive to move the stop / take profit than usual, but I don't think you comitted a cardinal sin. Unless you oversized the position, it sounded a bit like you used a LOT of money. As said many times before here, 1% is plenty, it's currently still too big for me, I'm trading at 0.125 - 0.5% at the moment and it still amounts to pretty "big" sums in my head already. Takes a while to adjust again.
Since you already said you're on demo there's no harm done, right?
Just stick with it, the trade and setup itself worked, the trade management will shape itself out over time.
Keep at it and don't give up hope, don't beat yourself up over it too much.
Emotions might be okay to cause things to "click" sometimes, but don't do it just to punish yourself. Use them to further yourself and progress, not to hinder and paralyse yourself
Cheer up, there are a lot of good trades coming in the future =)
Mr. D , I can see how you can down load a JPeg pic but how do you add text to it and in my experience, this Forex Factory rejects Jpeg and is accepting a gif pic ...... how do you deal with all of this? Dan
In MT4 there is a button that looks like an A, that's a text tool. You can write on the chart with that.
And saving charts from MT4 can be done in .gif format no problem.
Just wanted to attach this DJI since NewstraderFX just posted that some big boys are shorting stocks :P
2. I had wanted to stay live in this trade but still have difficulty with stops...
3. Looking to get back in.....too slow on the reaction as I should perhaps have reentered asap after stopout????
1. The market told you something - it traded past your stop. It kicked you out, and there was a reason for it. Depending on why your stop where, you should mull this over. The placement of the stop in itself should have a good reason. Don't fret over killed stops or at least not insofar as it tempts you to anything rash. Record it, look at the chart again 2 days later and then check out whether it was a good or bad idea and why and learn from it. (ah I see Mike just beat me to this paraphrasing it. Damn! Hehehe well done)
2.+3. are red flags. DON'T chase a "lost" trade. DON'T be anxious to be in and DON'T make your stop meaningless by re-entering at the same place again, paying spread a second time and doubling your potential losses(new entry = new stop).
The last two are important to notice because I know this phenomenon all too well. It can be DECISIVE in changing your bottom line from making profit to breaking even or producing losses. Why?
Because as soon as your wanting (to be in, to stay "live") takes over above the "simply taking a VALID trade setup when and as it presents itself", then you are putting gambling above making money.
It's as simple as that.
Don't ask how I know. Okay, I admit it. I know because it's what I did/do too much
Believe me when I say this can be the decisive point for your trading.
- Patience. Discipline. Strategy. -
(speaking to myself again mostly hehe)
Take care
SeekingLight
P.S. Anyone who read Mike's post - read it again. It's really good. ;p
Just wanted to throw on a daily Oil chart since I am bored to tears by this lack of commitment this morning and as Mike said there was an as nice as possible breakout of a range there.
72.65$ had another small one at the FE 161.8 as you can see...just noticed that a bit late :P
But I've got to stop posting DJI charts, all I try to find is tops in a several thousand point rally and all that happens each time is a 1-2 pip drop and then sharp reversal back up again
Am I glad I don't trade stocks / indices ;p
P.S. Mr Demark your charts are too big, they make it hard to scroll / read this thread. 600x600 is maximum allowed I believe, if you want to link to larger charts only post the link, not the image, that works as well please
Hi Raz,
That DBLHC on Daily is that not a signal for a long ???
Going short will go against the trend also.....any thoughts ??
Yes it's a bullish sign but we're sitting right below s/r. We've also had an IB before moving up / out of the formation.
The horizontal I drew at 23.6% would be a possible retrace entry level or a small timeframe entry at around the low 168s was available, too.
However this MAY not be the best good risk/reward setup as we're near the top of a big run and the DBLHC came in the middle. Remember what I said about the middle? I don't like it.
And that s/r had quite a reaction last time.
A bit off-topic, but I see that there are 3 steps when you sign-up for the PF. The first step is accessible ... does anyone know what steps 2 and 3 are?
Thanx
Habeeb
If I remember correctly you sign up via the webpage/homepage, get confirmation from Acceptiva(the CC handlers), then a J16 email, then you follow the contents of that and are in.
All pretty much within 24 hours.
If there are any questions anyone can feel free to contact me =)
People here are nice, unlike in SOME threads I could mention ;p
For the next few days I would like to ask a question a day, and hopefully get some consice answers... Thanks for all those who may answer.
Todays question...
What is the correct way to trade DBHLC and DBLHC ??? This assuming I have found one at the right place and the right time... what are the rules for trading this ???
Hey Tiki. Got it in PM as well, but answering here helps everyone. Although I have to say I think the answer's been posted to this thread a couple of times and possibly within the first 200-300 posts I think...I'm pretty sure I remember the time I used to read through this thread initially myself...I remember pumpkin cats and sundials and and wizards and...
Anyway, to the question, I wanted to add: if you get a weekly or a monthly DBLHC and there are smaller timeframes that are well visible, it could be you get an IB or similiar smaller TF setup "inside" the bigger formation. This is a very effective way for me to reduce my stop size on monthly / weekly setups. This is however not recommended for "starters".
Just trade them like Jim teaches and Mike explained, to get used to them first, and on the SAME timeframe.
I also watch how price behaves at the top of the first bar of this two bar formation - a lot of times price uses "kick off points" and observing this behavior over the long term can key you in to what's happening and how price moves.
Then again you mentioned having little time, so sticking to one TF and using orders on daily / weekly is most likely the way to go here
I'm starting to worry a bit that I love going a bit too deep into detail and complexity.
Mike does a great job of keeping everything KISS, with all the really important core facts
Still reading!!! I was scalping yesterday and noticed many buyers come in at 1.0415. It just got me looking for answers. The daily pivot is at 1.0437. The second IB is today's.
But I noticed a pyramid- Am I correct?
I have no idea what a pyramid in FX or TA is, to be honest. Not a formation I am familiar with and not part of Jim's PA. Sorry that I can't help you there.
--------
I just wanted to post some musings on cable which could of course turn out utter BS, but they are just some observations. Wondering whether we'll get a last stab higher to meet some of my targets on my crosses, as I am out of GBPUSD currently.
Daily made an IB, 4h has had some hints for us as well.
While the whole GBPUSD thread remains attempting to catch tops and shorting this down, I still see an okay chance for this to either hover a bit or take a last shot higher.
Just wondering where to :P
I just wanted to make and post a chart, I'm bored again.
Please note that the marked setups are not good setups. They are simply HINTS. Going long in possibly the last 5-10% of a run up after 800+ moved without correction is extremely risky imho. Not that _I_ am trying to predict tops, but I just mean to say that a good "late" entry would have been < 2.0200 e.g. when we hadn't escaped too far yet =)
Just some personal considerations I am bothering this thread with, sorry ;p
Thought maybe some folks would find it interesting to hear how my nutty little mind works ;p
BTW that FE 100 is a projected "squeeze" target if my totally incorrectly drawn triangle does break out to somewhere.
Maybe this is not the right forum to ask the question but seeing as you have posted extended Fib moves twice now, one is Gold and today in Cable, can you please elaborate/explain how these are calculated please?
Hoboy I hope I don't get in trouble for these distractions and Hobbies :P
Yes, I admit everything, I use that tool for visualization often.
It is however simply to show spots on the chart which have possible price projections. Things work like this:
Head and shoulder patterns(a lot of pin bars are compressed forms of these):
They have a head and neckline. Initial target for a move out once that neckline is broken and sometimes revisited is the size of the top of the head to the neckline. It is measured and then "projected" from the neckline on.
This doesn't always match up or work, but if I see it coincide with s/r or other fibs etc, it's just something I am trying to watch and learn from.
Other stuff is Elliot Wave, but that's far too complex. If you want to look into that sort of thing you can google "simple ABC correction" and "isolation approach", but it will not yield anything tradeable. Hobbies and pastimes, as I said.
Also, a giant word of caution: These projectons mean NOTHING on their own. NOTHING.
They are for ME just a general guide to say "hey, be careful to look what price might do once it gets here".
That's all. Nothing more.
Exiting blindly is the same as cutting your profits short and strongly advised against.
Yes, unfortunately though this one dropped almost 100 pips before going up, so many of us (myself included no doubt) would have been faked out and lost some money here :-/
Actually it behaved and worked perfectly even against all my original scepticism
I just wanted to post some musings on cable which could of course turn out utter BS, but they are just some observations. Wondering whether we'll get a last stab higher to meet some of my targets on my crosses, as I am out of GBPUSD currently.
Boy, did I not see this coming. I got my stab, but not for the crosses. Those all up and died. Kaboom. It seems I finally posted the right DJI pin bars, the stock market took a severe beating and the carry trade along with it.
Anyhow, just wanted to post the updated hobby chart so as to not leave it hanging and to round things up.
Both cable rallies have now risen around 920 pips. Any new entries will now be very risky stuff in my opinion.
Oh, didn't draw that in...can you see how price later bounced off 2.0510? you can picture a line through there. That's the top of that BUOB and a very small temporary timeframe s/r.
Hi all,
One step closer to live trading the j16 method, I see BEOBs forming on daily on all jpy pairs, next week should be interesting!
Have a great weekend, Raz
Great job!
I think you're doing insanely well on Demo from all I've read from you!
Have to congratulate you on your ongoing effort and success, seems you're really cut out for it, which is great =)
Murrey Math and - I hope this time I am 100% right hehehe - "dragon's tail" aren't part of Jim's PA as far as I know....which might mean nothing considering the Pyramid botch hehehe ;p
Did anyone else catch this? Waking up past T/P of 50+ pips always makes for a good wake up call!
Been live for 3 weeks, with 6 out of 7 trades closing winners for + 227 pips so far. Thanks to all contributors, and of course to Jim and Fiji. Focusing on M.M. techniques along with the proper psychology, and applying this to the 'Rifle Shots' mantra that Jim is famous for will lead toward the rarely taken road to trading success.
Trading less is definately more....THANKS JIM!!
What else can I say except: Wonderfully done!
Saw it, couldn't take it as Oanda's spread was 30+ for the first two market hours.
Hey seeking,
Is Oanda's spread always that way at opening?
Thanks
Rick
I believe on Sundays the first ticks from IBFX come in at around 23:00 Sunday my time as Sydney opens, Oanda still has weekend spreads then.
That's 10 for the majors(EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD), 20 for GBPJPY and 30 for some more "fun" crosses like EURAUD.
It doesn't go to normal spreads until 02:00 or 02:30 after Tokyo joins or something. Not sure, I usually sleep at that time.
It just totally ruins the possibility of placing a trade based on where the markets open if you're basing your decisions on that...bit annoying.
They and their spread shenanigans are special anyways, but I guess everything has it's pro and cons.
Actually can anyone explain that to me? With SB I get no commissions, fixed spreads (gbp/usd - 3, eur/usd - 2 etc) and also pay no tax on winnings. Admittedly they have a reputation as being bucket shops but I've been using them for two years and never experienced anything underhand!
I've used Finspreads (a so called "spreadbetter") a year and they've had the worst disservice I've ever seen. You'd get "no connection" around 3-10 times a day, prices "disappear" by being "indicative" and making the pair untradeable, when a reload of the the page makes it work again miraculously. They also disallow trading during newstime by simply making the buy and sell buttons disappear.
The smallest allowed increment is a full 1 EUR per pip which is a mini-lot, so proper sizing is not possible.
Only british citizens are exempt from tax using spreadbetters, not anyone else in the world.
Oanda is lightyears ahead of fins in terms of execution, responsiveness and in spreads. Fins had 10 on GJ, 15 on GBPCHF. I have FOUR pip spread on GBPCHF now and I can finally trade it properly.
Finspreads are cheaters, crooks and thieves in my eyes and their transparent attempts of blocking trading and cheatint people out of their money are disreputable and dishonest in my eyes.
This is my personal experience with them and it's simply the worst.
But this should really not turn into a make-you-broker discussion.
Hi Seeking,
I agree with oanda?s execution and spreads, as long as you stay away from news...their charts are so crap though, what charts do you watch? Or have you got the knack of their (Oandas) configuration, I have to admit I love mt4, but I miss out on a few of the pairs I would like to watch...anyway, will trade oanda when I go live with j16, there is nothing like trading exactly as much or as little as you want (position size wise I mean) but I really do find their charts lacking, take care, Raz
Dear god, no, I don't use Oanda for anything else other than pushing buttons.
MT4 all the way. Price differences can be annoying, but that's life.
Using IBFX = InterbankFX Demo for most of my charting as you can see by the screenshots. That's GMT. Has the pairs I trade mainly.
Fastbrokers has some more oddball pairs like EURAUD as well and along with Northfinance and Windsor it's all there. The last two however have 1 hour different 4h candles(close one hour later).
And yes, I have 3 or 4 MT4 demos open throughout the day, I'm a sick sick bas***d
(I'm sure that reads bassist...ah wait, that has a t, now I'm thrown, hmmm)
It's true, their sizing is as precise as you will get, but there's always pros and cons as mentioned. They're absolutely fine for normal PA however I have found so far.
It's going against the trend so maybe a no go !!! but a nice TBHLC if it breaks the shoter term TL then mayb down to long term TL......???
Would give a nice 270 pips......
I'm realizing more and more that 27 USDJPY pips are a lot more preferable to 270 on GBPJPY
Mildly exaggerated.
(read: GBPJPY is an uncontrollable and unpredictable beast and given USD weakness and GBP strength, which would you rather ride? To illustrate: the last drop of USDJPY was 108 pips. The corresponding move on GBPJPY was only 150 pips. Stops on USDJPY are only HALF the size and spread is half as well. Which one is really the better performer in this case?)
Yes, I was in the first one, but I got knocked out ...so this was just another opportunity I noticed and took advantage of, Raz
ps, this is the 3rd cad position Ive taken in the last few weeks, Ive been knocked out every time trailing by day before high...anyway live and learn
Yep, the xxxCAD can be mean.
Note that yesterday was an IB that broke down today, that would also have worked as a trade / entry, although it's all very stretched..
Me no likey xxxCAD...
Don't beat yourself up over this razldazl, that's what we're all here for, living, trading, learning
Thks Seeking,
Yeah we cant win them all! I didnt even notice that IB, did you see the dblhc on your gbpchf? Looks like it wants to keep going up, although its hit the FE100 now...the ej beob panned out, and jappy(beob) seems to be dropping, the eurusd buob hasnt gone anywhere (guess which one I took...)
Wizard sounds like you are a new trader, taking a lot of good ones these days from the sounds of it, great work! Take care everyone,Raz
It slipped past me, too. Well, or rather I saw it but didn't pend a short. Don't ask me why, I must disdain easy pro-trend money. No idea.
I don't have an exact match of the lows for GBPCHF.
I prefer looking at weekly / monthly bars for current "main" direction lately.
Added a bit however after the pseudo-PB-which-was-really-just-a-dent-bar-at-prior-highs, which already was closed at 2.4880 ahead of s/r.
Was handy to have that bar however as it gave a close by stop =)
Currently looking for a decision towards the high or at least the building of a base camp on that. Bit conflicting as I'd also love the USD to fall off a cliff and that'd drag USDCHF along once the real crush comes...Oh well, can't have it all.
The lower positions that I still have are destined for 2.4900 / 2.5000 if we can meet that. 2.4898-2.4930 I have pencilled in as s/r, so waiting to see what forms.
Yea, EURUSD hasn't been very rewarding, neither the IB nor the BUOB.
The reason for this is - in my opinion - that EURUSD is the core component for the USD Index and that is currently on the brink of 80.00 key support. A lot of eyes are turned on this and a lot of people are screaming "the dollar is oversold".
Maybe those are also the folks constantly selling into every new 5-10 pip high we get on EURUSD.
If we do eventually drop off without hitting 1.39 / 1.4 first, I'm going to be sure to be looking for any signs of long setups at the appropiate places.
Sorry that I'm so longwinded. Keeping a journal does that to me I've found, you tend to thoroughly explain and formulate your thoughts into text...which considering my overactive mind means a lot of text in turn...
It also coincided with a daily IB rebreak to the downside + BEOB the next day(Friday). So you could have traded that off of PA, even without "cheating". (I couldn't trade the gap either way, but had switched short on the IB rebreak)
Here is my chart for USD/JPY target 50 fib line... and beyond ???
Why do you have those terrible liars aka Stochs on your chart?
Also am watching 120.00 area closely, but there may or not be thrashing..some people like round numbers, some people want to get short at a decent price, some won't believe this is threatening the carry and so forth..
Using indices and metals to navigate like Raczekfx said.
Also true about them counter-trend pins. Even daily pins get beaten up by 4h counter pins WITH the trend currently...it's ugly.
Best not trade against the trend, ever :P
P.S. GBPUSD was NOT a PB on my chart (close wasn't within prior bar). USDCHF has an IB about to trigger.. ==> if USDCHF is going up, it's gonna be mighty hard for GBPCHF and EURCHF to go down, no? Unless both cable and euro get a heart attack and outdo USDCHF..
And someone forgot to give EURGBP it's vitamins, it's close to being annihilated
Come back not long later and the market has absolutely tanked having traded as low as 50 points below my target (244.50) and is now staging a short term rally.
I took profit on my short at around +200 for around 60% of the position. Go to play basketball today as we hold 246.40 with a TL. Pended a small short below it, limit at around 145 pips or so. I come back after around 90 minutes and see the pending short already closed again and that instead of +200 where I "lost" most of the position I am now holding a +550 pipper...worth nothing really compared to what it could have been =)
---------------------------------------------------- and the Usd/Yen pair fell off a cliff today
Finally maybe some people got the wake up call today
----------------------------------------------------------
and now the Usd/Cad is going up up and away ..
Does the housing stats today have anything to do with any of this ......?
Today?
Personally I blame this Jim Pin http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=4681
Was an early warning last Tuesday, then we got a weekly doji close.
But I bet the whole subprime thing ties in with it on the FA side, yea.
As always, price told us ahead of time though =)
As for USDCAD: IB at/near 161.8 Fib extension, breaks to upside. Also 2 4h PB formed at the same fib ext.
USDJPY I can offer a BEOB along the way on weekly and a lot of other stuff on smaller TF =)
Who called that 1.0350 bottom again? Wasn't there an explanation coming up, too?
Well I found one hint.
It seems that there's an inverse correlation between USDCAD strength and a dropping carry trade. Looked back to Feb / March and it showed today, too.
Also got a gigantic Fib extension as I said. I've noticed that around 161.8% of wave 4 can make a wave 5...ok I'm sorry, Elliot Wave sillyness.
Anyway, it appears it is a valid projection / fib s/r spot and had it on my chart...didn't think it'd cause this much reaction however.
Good work - I just tried going long on the GBP/JPY as there was a DBLHC at a double bottom...up it went, I was +44 and then it turned and took me out for +1 in a single five minute bar...christ, who needs sex, drugs and insane sports when you have this monster
Easy solution: don't trade 1h bull setups during a 1000 pip drop in hopes to stem the tide with a 100 pip 1h bar
Anything less than a gigantic daily or weekly PB or similiar just wouldn't convince me of this being over just yet.
Then again there will eventually be breathers, as always. Question is when and where and how much and then what and...welcome to forex ;D
I'm a bit more aggressive trader, so I added to my shorts when price retraced to PP, TL and 61 fib confluence. This is more risky and I don't recommend for new trades, but it might get you in a successful trade earlier.
R.
I KNEW it
As I wrote in the PF when outlining that trade, I bet you took that .618 and here you are
Got mine at 2.0551 myself =)
Scared me for a second when it moved 5 pips higher than I thought though hehehe. Still, was a sound decision as you wrote, with an additional justification for me via my own insane wave counting logic ;p
(end of a B before C down)
Congrats to an outstanding entry Raczekfx on goth GBPxx!
I took a short there myselfI won't name any names but trader on another thread thought it was a bad idea I guess it did't fit his indicator hmm closed out with 150 pips hmm
Must have been the cable thread
Raczekfx is right on the money - trade detached, ignore the noise!
I've read like 25 pages now. I will read them all. In the mean time I've tried to do some homework. Can you guys just take a look and see if it makes any sense?
Sorry if it's to big! AND, Jim, I will join your forum as soon as I accumulate some monies. It's not expensive at all, it's just that I'm a poor student a the moment..
Thanks
I'm not good with candles anymore, but the first one looks like a PB in traffic.
They can work out, but they're not the type you want to put big money on as a setup alone.
Don't know about the next three bar breakout since the highs aren't at the high of the range, but there is a BUOB that closes above those and that would have been a good setup.
There's also PB that you didn't mark before that red marked area that spiked downwards. Although also trafficked, that most likely caused that whole rise. Made a nice slope down to that PB then price PULLLLLLLS up again. Bit like an airplane. Can you see what I mean?
If you ever played a realistic flight sim you should know the slope
Price is a bit like that, it takes a while to ppppuuuuuuuuuull back and change direction. Well, depending on conditions. But you get the idea.
Then the matching lows - same story again, not at the very low so that doesn't count for me. However I can see you could connect the lows of the prior bars and get a rising trendline.
That was lost and a 4h BEOB formed, price paused a bit, then that giant bearish bar came and price fell down after losing the TL.
Finally the last blue PB isn't a PB but a BUOB as it completely engulfed the prior bar. However note that it didn't close above it, so again, not so hot, even if the next bar get's to move up a bit.
Please note here how price fell first, made a small retrace to around the area of where the red text is => prior lows, and then fell down in a second step (or third if you so want).
Price will do this A LOT. Step one down, pull back a little, step two down.
Watch out for it. Market loves the three step. Forward, back, forward, cha-cha-cha. Or cha-ching if you traded it right
Sorry to make it so complicated, that's just what I see.
I just wonder if it would be worthwhile buying some September mini dow, s&p september contracts or option calls. how about selling some yen contracts? This week was driven by panic selling and I'm sure there will be some quick correction on Mon or Tue...? But then again I'm no expert at all....
here's what I'm watching..
Watching the very same chart. Actually both EURCHF and GBPCHF. Have some strong suspicions about both. But shhhh, don't tell.
Also believe that given the bar tango 1-2-3 step that next week might see some consolidation.
However, since you mention futures, I must say I've gone a little bit cuckoo lately...I'm thinking about stuff like this now(not saying it will happen, but it would make an awesome chart to look at again in 2015):
I have a question for you if I may. Last week I took some pinbar trades that turned into a big loss after they were all activated. Now I know that not all pinbars work. But the question I have is; were the trades risky because of the extreme nose dive right before the forming of the pinbars? Or were they pinbars that just didn't work out this time? By the way, they were all in coordination with the daily and weekly trends. Here I've posted an example of cad/jpy. I'd appreciate your reply.
Kevin
Hi Kevin
Sure, anyone is always welcome to ask anytime. If I'm around, not currently facing a grumpiness attack or suffering from any other sort of ailment I'll try my best to help.
I assume most of the pins you took last week were on a small timeframe and had something to do with the JPY or exotic/high yielding pairs?
But I'm not going to use the fundamentals excuse.
Plainly put and just going from the chart it's an okay looking pin bar, it triggered okay, there was even a SECOND bullish pin bar that formed a bit after it, and yet price still took a beating. Tough luck I guess.
What you could have done is once that second bar formed that tiny tiny mini bearish PB right after it, you could have moved up your stop just 10 pips below that. Would have saved you most your cash and you really don't want the very next bar after your pin to be another pin against you..
A bullish bar is much preferable
As for the extreme nosedive being risky. Well, let's put it this way. Actually a very rash move before a pin bar usually means a good chance that the move back can be just as swift. So it doesn't make the pins bad. Remember, we don't want our pins in the middle of clutter and traffic, so steep drops aren't the worst scenario.
You COULD argue I guess that if normal behavior for the pair is to have 180ish pips a day and it suddenly moves 360 instead DOWNWARDS, that you might not want to step in the way just on the day that it behaves erratically and extremely strongly bearish. But that's already far far too involved and discretionary and so forth. Also it might go differently next time.
So keep it simple. It was an okay looking PB, if you had a reason to take it along with s/r and fibs or any other sort of confluence like a TL or similiar so that it didn't just occur "in the middle of thin air", then it was okay to take it, simply going by the look of it. The moving of the stop in this case probably wouldn't have been a bad idea as mentioned.
Other than that - you can't have 100% winners =)
Also please remember that even if you only risk 1% per trade, if you put on 10 trades at the same time all on the same type of pairs (xxxJPY for example)you still have 10% risked on a certain currency. Not a great idea, because if you're wrong about where that currency is going, you're wrong across the board. It's a cunning way of fooling yourself into thinking you're keeping risk low while really you're just disguising it under 50 positions. I sometimes use that trick myself ;p
Much nicer to simply pick a favorite, adjust your position accordingly and hold that one's hand
Hope this all helped at least a little bit, I always feel a little bit like I am using heavy artillery to shoot down ants from buildings ;p
To SeekingLight, Tom, the wizard and Jim: thank you very much in taking the time to answer my question. Much love goes to all of you. Stay healthy.
P.S.: SeekingLight, you stated that it was an okay looking pinbar. I assume that means it wasn't very good. Could you clarify a little on that please?
Kevin
Thanks Kev, you too
As for the "okay". Hm. Well I don't know, looking at it just made it seem "okay" to me.
Maybe it's because I'm not sure what other factors come in for confluence or how it looked compared to the other bars in size or something.
I'm not really certain what it is. I just got up as well(8 AM here).
The bar itself is alright as I said with the open and close level and a long nose. As in the previous post, all that's left to matter is that you something to give it a reason why it should be going up again => confluence.
There need to be people around to want to buy this so confluence means you can find at least 2 or more reasons why certain folks would want to chip in along with you. S/R is nothing but a "proven" area of buying/selling interest, as are fibs, TLs and so forth. And the more people think that this is a good place to buy, the more likely price will rise.
I wouldn't try to find 50 reasons you shoulda known ahead of time why this exact one would fail or one of the others. You won't work it out by trying to outsmart it this time.
Be sure you keep your total exposure low, that you have practiced the timeframe you are trading on and KNOW it's pecularities, shapes, sizes and forms just like Jim pointed out.
You'll end up being able to judge yourself whether you feel you took a gamble or whether a trade fit all the criteria you yourself have found to work for YOU.
And that's really where we all want to go
Thanks for the advice Peter... I'm in the trade still, down 20 pips, but we've had a move down, a push back up, and now a push down to give a doji on the current daily bar, so I'll re-evaluate at today's daily bar close. Any ideas on what to do assuming price sort of holds where it's at? In theory, a pinbar usually works best when the move happens on the next bar, or at least pretty soon, right? So price hanging around the same spot would indicate a tendency to break either way, right? So, the pinbar really wouldn't serve much use at that point, correct? Just trying to compare my thought process with others' and make sure I'm not just being crazy.. :-)
Good attitude with the "next" comment.. very true!
Hiya Josh.
Yea, it seems you're basically fighting a gigantic weekly BUOB and going by how price is reacting to most s/r levels also a lot of interested buyers.
If today's bar closes even remotely PB / doji'ish I'd move the stop just above today's bar. If we don't move higher before the close already. I'm afraid you're not gonna get away without losses all the time.
But you could always still end up getting a bit more wiggle room. Will have to see.
I took this one too, closed at around +20 after I saw what happened after 1.0590 s/r....ouch. Was almost tempting to go long on that 1h PB against the daily ;p
Given that the carry might melt more from what I am seeing as I am typing, USDCAD might just get pushed higher soon..but it's not very decisive today. Just leans out a bit, comes back, repeat...
It's been a super-tedious two days on any pair here, all this correcting never was my favorite...I prefer fast, strong, decisive moves...this murk is just urglburgl.
Sorry if I'm sounding a bit grumpy, lack of sleeeeep..
Another:
There are just too many!!! All the JPY pairs have PBs.
That GBPJPY pin was good and perfect, a pin at retracement and a "must take" due to weekly BEOB. EURUSD as well. Cable wasn't a PB(on the picture on your feed, IBFX had one) and USDCAD was just not in the right place. Imagine it at the bottom of a swing low, then it'd be perfect.
I'm still trying to pin down (pin, get it?) the movement in EUR/CHF.
First I was long and got stopped out, then I tried to go long again and got stopped out again. Now I have reversed and gone short...stubborness is never good for your account balance. lol
It's the usual trouble with timezones and data feeds for GBPUSD. I got a perfect mini retracement pin bar on IBFX for GBPUSD but GBPJPY wasn't a PB, on North Finance it's the other way around. Go figure.
Loss of 2.0180 will both trigger the BEOB as well as break down that s/r.
thanks for this sl, its great to see good examples so we can get it right, or as close to when we are looking for pullback trades, take care, Raz
No prob. These s/r flips occur so much they will just start to stand out to you at some point. It's like before crossing the road - always look to your left first.
You've already amazed me with a lot of your previous trading. I think I was nowhere near as fast a learner as you seem to be
Don't fall prey to the overcomplication I love so much, stick to the simple charts (Jim's, Raczekfx, Mike's and some of my clean ones and so on) and some basic PA and confluence logic and you'll do exceedingly great, I'm sure =)
I, on the other hand, took the 4hr pinbar long, held onto it when it formed into a daily pin, and broke the weekly bullish outside bar. It should have went on to break the monthly pin. And instead I was just stopped out.
Similar thing happened on the USD pairs and some yen pairs.
Gold and Silver had nice retracement pins, and who knows what will become of them now.
So much for the larger timeframe taking precedence.
Very depressing.
I don't know how much more of this I can take.
-Paul
Know just how you feel. These wild and wacky periods are also where I do the worst in. It's really annoying transitioning from 2-3 days of really knowing what is going on and where things are heading to to totally having to second guess EVERYTHING because after every impulsive move this corrective chop arrives.
But as always there will be an eventual ending to it and one has to keep on trucking in order to catch that next 1000 pip run eventually.
Prudent money management and waiting until everything lines up in your favor and simply not trading until you again feel you KNOW what's going on will help ensure that you get through it alright
Learned that from pretty much doing the opposite most of the time
It's the "it's going up! oh wait, no, down! err, up! no wait! ach DARNIT!" that costs one most of the account. Once that happens 2-3 times, put aside the the trading, go do something else.
Come back after the daily/weekly has closed, see if it makes more sense then, if not wait until it does.
Or the daily/weekly bars after that.
Will very likely save a lot of loss and frustration.
If in doubt - stay out. Another simple slogan that's easily disregarded but will spare a lot of pain. And like the waiting part it's sooooooooooo much easier written and said than done.
Again - know how you feel, you've got my heartfelt sympathy. I spent most of today just going "wtf what is going on here" as well ;p
Best to let it play out, make some sort of sensible setup at some point and THEN rejoin the fun.
Just some rambling on my part, 'scuse me I'm back off into my cave again..
Since I'm sharing the confusion of some folks, I just wanted to say:
It's probably best to pick a side and stick with it. Especially when you're just beginning. If you're going to believe the monthly, size to that and put that on as a trade/order. Ignore the other TF.
If you're going to believe the daily, use that one. And so forth.
Currently I do not trust either side so I'm sticking to setups that seem more clear to me. Both the daily PB's are clogged as well as some of the big ones threatened by s/r. It's all fly by ear currently.
Doing it like Mike does by just isolating what you're looking at is the best way to stay sane without getting 50 things conflicting each others.
Set rules, set criteria, stringent entries and exits - and he stays cool no matter how many other TFs say otherwise.
Did anyone else watch the Dow/Dax into the close last night and wonder what in the hell was going on?
Dunno, always see those commentaries and find em pretty funny ;p (the misplaced orders I mean)
I can supply this chart and the previously "stopping out lows"(the last 3 bars before the rise). They staggered lower only a handful of pips each, so I assume each new low was met with demand until finally some decisive point was reached for either side.
Anyway can I have any thought on how you guys stop yourselves from cashing in too early.......I know I probably should put in a trailing stop and I know I am going to kick myself when I see how much these have moved by tommorow.......
Well you could just take the simple way out.
Same thing I said about timeframes before.
Stick to the same timeframe for everything.
If you enter a daily trade, do not touch it again before the next daily close.
If you enter a weekly trade, do not touch it again before the next weekly close.
If you enter a monthly trade, do not..well you get the idea.
I mean, would you close a 1h trade before the next hour is over and you know for sure how much more or less it may or not move?
Then why do it on a daily bar?
Just food for thought, not a "must". Obviously everyone trades differently.
But that sort of thing will most likely keep you sanest and keeps things simple.
I do not believe there is one "right" way. You need to figure out what works for YOU and then consistently employ that very thing.
Is anyone else looking at the markets thinking "what the heck is going on?"
I mean it seems as if almost all pairs are ranging as if they are waiting for something to happen. Most decent setups that I have seen based on S/R fib points and other confluence seem to fail lately.
I can't be the only one seeing this so I would like to hear others views about current market conditions as well. Or then again yes it could just be me... but I am really hoping it isn't ...LOL
And finally weekly. I hope it's becoming apparent what I mean by "stacking blocks" for retracement levels. It's the old s/r flip story on a bar by bar basis.
If these start behaving again that'd be really nice. They've been barely functional lately, exceeding the highs/lows by too much, making pins but then failing, dropping too low but then still rallying etc etc..mischievous beasts!
though i do not trade this pair, TL, fibs, and james allpoint to going up IF it trades above the TL.
Am I correct. According to james, this is a nose and eye forming...right ?
The nose is the long lower part of the already closed monthly bar. Pin Bar => Pinocchio Bar => long "nose".
That's already closed, so it can't be forming still
The eye bar on the right side is already starting to break the PB so it should also be done forming the eye. If it does fall below 1.5900 again I would be extremely cautious maintaining a bullish bias.
There is currently a fight at 1.5900 vs 1.6160 which will most likely be thrashy. Blessed art thou who tradeth the weekly or monthly.
On weekly it looks like the BUOB is breaking upwards and starting to sniff the air above the TL. Perfect spot for a suprise sell slaughter
1.6200 is most likely THE hotspot for that.
Here's a secret: big boys love the round numbers. They probably find anything else too complicated. There's a lot to be said for simplicity.
I wouldn't touch this pair in this current mess, I don't have enough historic data, either. Might be an oscillating pair and simply moving back up from the lower bounds back to the higher ones. Bit like EURGBP.
I personally prefer sticking to EURUSD and AUDUSD themselves and using stuff like this to get a heads up for which one will prolly be "stronger" or "weaker" on it's own.
I just don't "know" this pair enough or it's levels etc. These oddball crosses can be extremely icky for me and just feel foreign.
So basically I just wrote a lot of words for saying "Sorry, really no idea" ;p
Loss of 2.02 triggers weekly IB, perhaps leading below prior BEOB and making a DBHLC on weekly?
Aiming at 2.0 initially + TL + FE 100 + all of that stuff ya know ;p
It is HOT here and I am BORED by the DJI not crashing 500 points a second ;p
Where's the fun!
Descent started with a 2x 1h / 4h PB here on my chart at a descending TL capping off the tops on 1h..didn't quite get to .618 of the downswing sadly :/
///////
The longer we hesitate at 2.0300 the more worried I am getting. Need descent, now!
Someone call someone! :P
Hi Seeking Light,
Just a quick question how did you enter on "short from 2.0432" is this from the pin bar from the 4hour chart or was it from the daily BEOB from the 6th ?
If so how did you get in so early ??
Nice trade.
Stay Lucky Mimas.
Descent started with a 2x 1h / 4h PB here on my chart at a descending TL capping off the tops on 1h..didn't quite get to .618 of the downswing sadly :/
Took that. Was expecting a B end for a C down and the PBs confirmed roughly in that area. Actually left a bit overshoot room for 10 pips above the .618 since cable likes to give a last good thrashing before giving up sometimes by 5-15 pips.
I'm your new friend in the PF but couldn't find a USD/CHF thread, so i'll post it here.
This is the 1H USD/CHF - is there gonna be a pin ?? let's wait and see, if it is, it's gonna be a perfect one!
You can just post it to the EUR/USD discussion thread, that's not a prob
Do you mean the 1h bar or? I'm not sure.
If you mean the closed 1h the one I have has almost identical high and low distance from open/close, making it a neutral bar / doji-ish something, not a PB.
Also the move lacks any sort of volume, it is small even for a 1h bar.
For clear reversals you want to see a LONG nose for the PB and a small body and an even open/close or only slightly skewed.
I'd also recommend starting on at least the daily timeframe, anything below that has soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooo much noise, it's hard to filter.
Heya Kev,
even though they've been mentioned here before and I'm not sure how "secret" they are, I don't feel comfortable disclosing them as I got them from the PF and I believe they're so valuable they should stay a part of that.
Most or all are "known", but the real trick is knowing what to do with them.
Just like with anything you put on a chart.
If you're in the PF just shoot me a PM over there or simply check out my journal, I mention them permanently in there and explain how I view them =)
Really sorry I can't help you further there Kev :/
I'm always of two minds whether I should just delete them off the chart before posting em in the first place as it is. It's just me in this case, bit overprotective.
A lot of the time there's no real difference to the charts with or without them when posting target zones / fib+s/r confluence and my blue boxes, so there's no need to feel left out
It's a double-edged sword either way(more complication due to them).
Very Nice Seeking,
Top marks 10 outa 10 for that one !!!!
I had the TL + Fib but have not traded on BEOVB up to now always find em risky.....!!!
Just another quick question if you have say a pin on the daily and your trading the break of that pin how many days would you wait for that pin to stay valid.....ie. if you had a pin on Monday and the break of that pin was not till Friday would you still take it ????
Thanks Mimas,
I guess it was a good mixture of luck, timing and an okay setup coming together with a plan.
As for the BEOB/entry:
Well as always it depends on WHERE the setup is. This one came near the crucial .618 fib and after a weekly BEOB which was at the top of 1000 pip run. Had an okay chance to at least consolidate around a little bit in my book and I had a plan to trade it like this so I did.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
--
As for the Pin timing/"delay": I personally allow a PB + IB then double-trigger to be okay. Mike is stricter in this regard I believe. I'm also fine with a 2 bar PB + 2 bar smaller PB at retrace + double-trigger takeoff. But those are usually a bit more iffy.
One has to once again be careful with the more advanced stuff and bar merging and timeframe mixing and whatnot. End of the day you start seeing things and Caspar the friendly ghost is your best buddy or something.
Anyway, if a PB doesn't trigger ASAP then there's obviously something wrong. We want STRONG rejections, not "meh, mayyyyyyyybe I'll eventually come around some day" I'd say.
I wouldn't think in days but in bars as always. Staying on the same timeframe. Then it's like I wrote above.
Hope this helps.
As always when I write anything - keep in mind this is all PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE and preference. I am by no means a perfect nor flawless trader even if clever posting of those trades that DO work out can make it seem like that sometimes
Now I am seeing that you already had a short going on for GBP/USD !!! So now after my PMs to you yesterday about the DBHLC... I did take the trade and got myself 60 pips this morning... when my wife called me at work to tell me the I had that many pips, I told her to close out the trade... this means I am up $ 6 today !!! Hey that is GREAT for me !!! That is 1/4 of 1% of my account !!!
I see then we have retrace, and I was still scared about this interest rate anouncment... so now I will be thinking about getting back in short again... but I am losing some of the reasons... so I would like to know what are your reasons for thinking GBP/USD will get into the 1.900s ???
Heya Tiki,
congratulations on your trade =)
With time you'll be able to spot and take the trades with confidence independently, I'm sure
As for your thoughts - first off I'd say: why did you exit?
Mike - for a very good reason - puts a lot of emphasis on this. Exits make or break your trading and bottom line.
It's fine to exit, but you should ALWAYS have a tested and proven reason for WHY you exited when and where you did and not just "because it moved a little bit into profit and I didn't want to lose it" (a reason I myself put forward still this day).
There is a HUGE amount of discretion needed to know when it's "right" to close out a trade ahead of time and when not to.
I think the most basic way of avoiding this is what I wrote a few pages ago.
Stay on the same timeframe, stay in your direction unless someting says there's a change of it. I mean, we have a Weekly BEOB, IB. Daily BEOB, BEB. We moved 14 pips below the IB already.
Is any of that bullish?
Then why already close out?
What if this very trade was the beginning of a huge drop?
What if weekly now becomes a BEOB as well?
Who can know ahead of time?
So: why already close out?
I'm not saying it's wrong to close out with a profit. I'm just saying you should know how when where and why you are and that what you're doing is ensuring profitability in the long run.(this is basically 1:1 Mike's words. I'm just quoting him / repeating what he keeps trying to hammer home )
Not just addressing Tiki with this of course
I'm not picking on your Tiki, no worries
Now, another very important thing.
When I read
Quote:
now I will be thinking about getting back in short again... but I am losing some of the reasons
That's being overanxious to be "in". In the market. Don't be. So you closed out too early. Oh well, we all make mistakes. Heck, I even closed out a small bit of the short I added at 2.03 for no real reason as well, simply because I got spooked out during FOMC.
But that's that. I can't put on a new short unless there's a setup.
Look to my signature at the moment: "no setup = no trade".
That simple line would have saved me a LOT of money had I followed it to the letter the last 15 months.
Don't be anxious to trade. Don't be anxious to enter. Don't be anxious to exit.
Bottom line: Don't be anxious.
Emotions and trading don't mix well.
The more "bored" you are, the better that is as a sign.
Oh, another perfect looking pin at triple confluence. Yawn. 1% entry, managed til reversal, profit, next. Yawn.
That sort of boredom is good.
You don't WANT excitement.
Again - just my perspective on things, going from what I've learned so far.
99% of all this is credit to people like Jim, Habeeb, Mike, FXV and so forth and so on. Mike's posts especially should be heeded with religious reverence and read with extreme diligence. He knows what he's doing and he's doing it well.
I think he's got one of the most simple, most efficient approaches to this market and he's lightyears ahead of me =)
No fantasy world waves or ABCs there, just profit after profit.
Sorry Mike, the next 500 PMs you can blame on me now
Hope I didn't stray too far off topic, but I felt some of this stuff might be important.
Which way is it going to break...
Where is it going to bounce...
next move should be good for some 300ps imho..
.
You know, I'd say up, but then I'd get all worried what that means for my precious cable short and the tears are welling up as it is already :P
Maybe if USDJPY goes berzerk while cable sits idly or something. For now, I am still staying in the firm belief of this chart. I am already beating myself up for having closed out my 2.03 addon last night due to PANIC and IGNORING my own stringent and strict trade plan. 1.9990 or bust! Well, that, or it hits one of my manually trailed stops. But go there it must I say!
(please don't trade based on what I say)
Well, sometimes PA is a story of "it's never easy".
It helps of course letting the trend take precedence over anything, but I agree JoshDance, it can be annoying. USDCAD is a good example and one of my arch enemies.
Monthly: PB, untriggered.
Weekly: BUOB, moved out 49 pips, then price fell back inside. Ouch.
Daily: PB, triggered - bearish again, right? But then price comes back up to ALMOST the high of the PB with a counter-PB. Eww. THEN there's a BEOB. Okay, bearish again. Then some stalling, then an IB, that breaks down. Okay, well, at least now there's some direction. Now I'm just waiting for a gigantic bounce from < 1.0470 to make yet another flipflop ;p
See how simple things can be? PBs at the boundaries, then back until a new one comes...some pairs behave better than others. This is basically "the dollar". 52% of this USDX basket is reflected in EURUSD afaik.
As for people looking at GBPUSD, don't forget EURGBP.
Very nice action on cable.. hope you did very well.
Yen is my favorite currency right now and It seems to be in sync with me for the last 2 months..
I need to set alerts delivered to my pda whenever you post in your journal on PF. Lot's of good set ups from you SL, but most of them get posted when I'm hibernating... Do you ever sleep?
Don't make me blush
I'm still quite a long way behind you and Mike et al =)
Yea, cable went alright, I just was a bit stubborn reacting intially.
Ended up closing out the lower entry for around +70 during FOMC panic, the original shorts around +180, then flipped long and am holding that for around +80 or +90 right now.
Looking to add on a retrace after BUOB in the morning during the London Open stop run / scareout tomorrow on a bullish setup.
Considering price behavior today I am expecting a move towards > 2.0450 in the near future again. Not sure though.
Know what's funny? That "almost" .618 fib hit at 2.0462 is now EXACTLY on .618 with the new low. Spooky, isn't it? This market, I tells ya...
As for my journal, been neglecting it a little bit lately, since I'm trying to do more trading than posting and my account balance reflects this in the last 3 weeks. I've been doing amazingly okay - not great - even with a LOT and I mean a LOT of botch ups.
Being swifter in cutting suckers and lenient towards working setups and trying not to out-stubborn moves like on cable helps a LOT. Also I try to have "places to go to" - targets that are at least 1:2 or 1:3 away and look PLAUSIBLE.
From what I've learned: In this market you have to be able to go from calling another 5000 pips drop to being bullish again within 30 minutes or you're toast. Might sound a bit huffy and schizo and totally whack, but that's just how it is.
Adapt or die, to put it drastically. Be flexible and allow the market to prove you wrong and make you rethink might be a softer version. Keep an open mind.
Only applies to the lower timeframes of course, monthly e.g. has been green for 2 months now *g*
I feel a bit guilty because a lot of the stuff I post publicly or in the journal might lead people to see different things than I end up trading, but that's what all those disclaimers are for..
When I post charts they're always just fragments of reality and snapshots - things always do their own thing in the end.
Got to stay flexible.
You're doing some amazing things as well RaczekFX, I'm always in awe with you, too =)
As for being in synch with stuff - I know exactly what you mean. Some pairs just speak to you and some pairs it's like constantly having a fight with an angry ex-wife ;p (can you say xxxCAD...lol)
Sleep, hmmm...let me check the dictionary....ohhhhh that ;p
Yea, I do that sometimes, I just try to hide it well hehehe ;p
Keep in mind I'm in Germany, so timezones may play into the timing =)
Man, I'm writing novels again here lol....I should get some speech -> text soft, too, I thinks...not that it'd know most of the funny words I use, but heck...
Y
I usually don't use the 1hr chart, but since Mr. Raczekfx was using them...I thought I'd post the same timeframe. On this chart we have a nice rejection off of a trendline that was broken and the 200 moving average. It's not quite a PB by definition...but close enough for me(this time). Use at your discretion!
That sort of "gasping" PB at the top of a swing would actually look more bearish than bullish to me..never a good idea to add to positions on a high for me. I keep seeing those turn red as the real pullback comes, the original position goes small enough so that the red part and the positive pips roughly cancel each other out, just as it starts to get near a potential turning point I close out, then things move on like nothing happened and instead of making money I just wasted time...
Just an anecdote from some of my terrible trading habits which I am trying very hard to lose currently
Oh man, where's the love??? Yesterday no one liked my trade. And today is the same. But those two additional lots I added to my long nzd/jpy position...I just closed one for 35pips and the other for 50pips(85total). So if the trades I'm taking are wrong...I don't want to be right! hahaha
Sounds good =)
But what was the stop for the higher entry? And how much room did it have to go?
It was a good thing you took your profit as it was there.
Don't get me wrong - if you managed to get money out of it then good.
I just don't see a setup there nor a good risk/reward. That's just my take on it.
Quote:
That sort of "gasping" PB at the top of a swing would actually look more bearish than bullish to me..never a good idea to add to positions on a high for me.
Please, i have attached a trade i took on Nzd/Usd now
Reasons are,
Pin Bar on 4hr
I'll be waiting for your comments esp. Seeking light, Big Tom and others
Thanks
Hiya maarf,
sorry I couldn't get to you sooner, but I was getting those 6-7 hours of sleep I try to hide so well ;p
Habeeb once said to me when I first started with PBs that they are essentially a compressed representation of a head and shoulders. This pin you took was that very thing on 1h, so it worked out fine once it broke down. Attaching chart of the mini-view.
The only thing messing it up a bit is that spike down that made that gasp PB I mentioned before to Tw0eleven (NZDUSD and NZDJPY both have it), but that didn't stop the HNS from developing.
What timeframe are you looking at may I ask? And I take it you went short, but what caused you to go short? I don't see any bar formations on the daily or 4hr charts. Cheers.
There were three "gasping dojis" at the high on 4h here like on your NZD the other night
Not enough for me to put a trade on...USDJPY got to .382 of the full run down before it flipped - guess that pulled the others along...AUDUSD / AUDJPY 50%...and some other reasons.
Now, If today was friday and I saw that '??? ' pin bar, I'd say we're heading much lower
232-234?
but I'm no expert, so you can just ignore my thoughts.
Think we're both wishing we'd have taken that GJ short
We even posted the same chart =)
I agree, if the lows blow out I got 232.50 in my chart marked blue ;p
Not necessarily in a straight line perhaps, but hey...500 pips a day np for GJ, right?
;p
Again, sorry for my ignorance... but why such a big secret about certain ma's ??? I have never seen anything in the PF saying that certain ma's should not be talked about on the Public forum...
There's a gigantic sticky must read introduction on not copying or distributing any of the PF material at the beginning of the PF threads and for me that goes for the EMAs / systems as well.
Quote:
Can a few of you guys PLEASE give me some opinions on the monthly PB for AUD/USD about to trigger off a trade... I am inclined to take it...
Taking the monthly PB like this will not net me much profit since the stop will have to be so far away and my trade size so small... but is it not the principle of the matter that counts too ???
This is how I solved that problem for me - but it's not a monthly trade...just another intraday toss...
I think we are going to see some serious downside in the carry pairs and market indexes today...key support has just been lost on the Dax and the Dow is barely managing to keep its head above it...GBP/JPY is literally sitting on it too...good luck everyone.
I got psychological s/r at 7300 DAX, 50%, real prior low s/r. It might either pause, hold or bounce a bit. But DOW futures are DOWn and the rejection was ugly and I think we could be in for quite some contest, yes...
237.50 togglepoint for GJ I think, but there's always risk of that fakeout..
BTW it's no coincidence this chart looks exactly like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, DJI....
240pips in my micro a/c. Have left the rest pips for charity. Am gone Off for the week
A BIG THANK TO SEEKING LIGHT, MIKE, BIG TOM AND A HOST OF OTHERS I REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR ASSISTANCE
THIS WEEK MARK A TURNING POINT IN MY TRADING CAREER
You're welcome maarf and well done for the profit.
-------------
Whoever shorted Kiwi yesterday hopefully is biting his butt now and reminded of my mini-series "why it pays to hold on to your trades" 250 pips later
There was also that 80 pip PB on Kiwi off the top. Would be worth 580 pips now if you had held. Something to think about
My AUDUSD shorts off the top were only stopped out because AUDUSD moved 60 pips higher than anticipated due to AUDNZD strength, else they'd be showing > 400 pips now
The NZDUSD one was taken out gracefully by a 40 pip Oanda newsspike, yessirra...
I got psychological s/r at 7300 DAX, 50%, real prior low s/r. It might either pause, hold or bounce a bit. But DOW futures are DOWn and the rejection was ugly and I think we could be in for quite some contest, yes...
237.50 togglepoint for GJ I think, but there's always risk of that fakeout..
Clogged consolidation area, contradictions on different timeframes, no perfect bars and a struggling DJI imho with a good chance of an out of the blue breakdown.
I'd say let the market show some direction first ==> you already got my quote in the signature
And to quote my current one: no setup = no trade
Or: if in doubt, stay out.
I've got a lot of doubt on my charts and imho it will be short jumps, then flipflopping and a short story with a surprise ending nobody knows ahead of time.
Not the environment to get rich in safely imho.
The only trade I am currently seeing that's at least a bit in line is on the pair I hate the most
Holy Rockamoly !!! I did call it right eh !!!! Too bad I had no trades put on those !!!
Here are the setups from daily.
One IB breakdown in the middle got wiped, but that wasn't a real setup since it gapped over the weekend I believe, so it's invalid. Oops. Didn't want to reupload the chart.
Whoever thought that traffic PB was nice to take also got hurt. Unless you move your stops after a handful of pips on this pair, which I don't think woulda been such a great idea (woulda killed you for nothing on the very first initial IB breakout).
Also posting these to remind me there are indeed trades around if you look close enough. Also stop placement would have been eminently important in the chop.
The way I understand it, two bar highs/lows are to be played as a continuation breakout.
As in, an established down trend consolidates and a two bar low forms. You then go short on the break.
That two bar low at the top of GBP/JPY does not fit this criteria. The trend is still up.
I am not saying that doesn't make it a good trade just saying that the examples I have seen from Jim show TBL's being taken on the break once a trend is underway.
Yes. The TBL in this case coincided with the IB breakdown/BEOB bar (forgot to mark the BEOB in!!!! argh...so much for setting a good example), so it simply was to illustrate s/r at that point ==> TBL at the BEOB low, once that went the BEOB triggered as well and the TBL simply was meant as the s/r to trigger it.
Originally it's sposed to be a "place to break" during a trend for a continuation, yes. But heck, I abuse trendlines, so I can abuse poor TBLs, too...they have nobody to defend them! Mwah! Okay, I admit, I'm an hour overdue for bed. Just wanted to explain why I outlined it (BEOB low + second low = breakdown more significant). Night.
Isn't a pin bar really just a hammer or inverted hammer?
Pin BAR and Hammer=candlespeak. Almost the same thing, but Hammers have a "head" and Pins we look for identical open/closes. Both can work out identically.
What this teaches me is that I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money! Somewhere else I read that it's hard to be a trader because we have ingrained in our minds that we must work several hours per day. But trading daily charts can be very profitible, and it only takes maybe an hour per day (for me anyway, for other experienced traders probably less) of analysis to cover everything! Making money on 1 hour per day seems too good to be true, so we force trades during periods of consolidation when the market doesn't know where it's going (so how could we?), and we lose money.
"I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money"
albeit a bit differently phrased has become part of 2 signatures now
I cut it down to "no setup = no trade".
As for EURUSD - weekly BEOB was a setup, then an IB => breakdown of those two coulda been a viable entry. The short I had the other day I already closed again at 1.3505.
I am watching 1.3250 like a hawk instead and any reaction off of 1.3440-50.
As for the Pin timing/"delay": I personally allow a PB + IB then double-trigger to be okay. Mike is stricter in this regard I believe. I'm also fine with a 2 bar PB + 2 bar smaller PB at retrace + double-trigger takeoff.
Quote:
Hi SeekingLight,
Back in post 5270 you mentioned "double-trigger" and "double-trigger take off" What did you mean by there terms?
Thanks Ray
With the "double trigger" I was referring to both the IB and the PB triggering at the same time(or the big PB and a retrace PB triggering one after another) since the IB is inside the PB. So when the IB breaks then the PB breaks a few pips away as well => double-triggering / two setups trigger. That's all I meant by it
Really it's just one setup and that's that of the last bar printed.
That's because GJ hit a > 650 pip target at 225.60 faster than I could say wtfomgwtfwtfwtf today and I felt like slowing things down a bit after that :P
I did until I decided to close it...after all, I thought, how much lower can it go?
Oh....that low...
Can't bear to look at the chart
LOL
Well you gotta think in big boy nrs. 0.725 0.7 0.675 0.65...take a small nibble every 250 or trail the stop down 300 pips each time one of them is hit ;p
You can see where things get "hit", 150 EJ, 112 UJ, 221.5 GJ...started from 122 UJ, 251 GJ...ya know?
Big boy nrs
Also using fib extensions can be interesting if they line up with s/r ==> see chart
Some of us had no idea it even happened for awhile
That'd be me for example
Was fun posting the chart just before it happened only to see it shoot up in a straight line 20 minutes later
Wasn't a PA setup for me however. Those bars on your chart weren't even 50 DAX points big on my feed..not that I can even trade the indices on Oanda :/
I can however trade the impending drop via the YEN and CHF proxies...bbl
could anyone please wxplain me the importance of such announcments? i understand they are important and someone once told me that where you have greater interest is where the money will go - well, i agree, but is there anything else i should know of it??
IMHO either you learn how to trade technically and use that or how to trade with funnymentals. Mix and match may also work, but I chose my side. It's nice to read stuff alongside, but it translates into 0 tradeability for me.
(you = one. As in the "generalized" you. Was trying to speak in general..not to be rude)
if the commercials are heavy short he will wait until the talking heads are in mass agreement to go long and then he follows the commercials in. its funny as hell to watch him wait until 90 percent of the analyst community says one direction and then by following the commercials he bucks them and wins time after time. he actually has an indicator that shows when the analysts are strong in a certain direction so he can trade the other way. LOL. its way cool.
i entered earlier this week on the break of USDCAD monthly PB, the problem i see coming is this weekly pin bar in the other direction came off the daily TL,and pretty much of the 150ema, would like to read your comments and thoughts, thanks
Hi Mamutot.
Easiest way to deal with this sort of thing is to say: I start off entering a trade assuming I am wrong and I will allow the market to prove me right.
You entered the trade for a reason which was worth your stop to you - that in turn means if it goes sour then oh well, you gave it a shot.
Any sort of manual intervention in the "early stage" of any trade for me has just turned into loud cursing and regret when I used to do it 99% of the time, making me realize that if a trade is meant to fail it will and when it's meant to work it will, too.
Trying to stop it before it can do either simply means you're trying to fight the same "self" of you that entered the trade in the first place.
As soon as we stop expecting every trade ever to win and let go of the fear of some actually failing and move on to the next setup instead; the more detached we get, the more "mechanic" the whole "see, react, allow" process becomes, the less painful and in the end irrelevant a loss becomes and the more one realizes that it isn't singular trades but a trading path that is what matters.
Just some of my thoughts, not sure if this is "the" answer, but it is something that goes around in my head.
I took only a few days off away from world's madness to sail in the solitude of the northern hemisphere .... and the market hell broke loose ...
I can tell by recent volatility, many folks made money, but even more lost some fortunes. Unfortunately, I get that feeling we haven?t seen the end of it yet
I thought of keeping some of my longer term limit orders open but decided to cancel them all and enjoy the journey. This one could?ve paid for all my expenses? But who cares, even few days away from this world is priceless?.
.
I KNEW you'd love it =)
I was thinking of you the whole time when I posted it
Sailing must be nice, never done it myself, but it seems to have some magic going for it.
Agree on not having seen the end, but we WILL hear fanfares to that end.
Too bad about the orders, but heck, I do assume you're not pressed or in need of the "easy" money just yet, no?
Welcome back =)
Now to find out how long the chop back higher lasts...
Anyone looking at this pair? Its just broken an IB and an upward trendline, well a nice channel actually, could be a very nice short, any comments? Raz
Heya Raz,
looking at the same thing (loss of the lower TL) and parallels on EURCAD.
I believe it's mostly EURUSD's rise to blame(read: return of USD weakness - temporarily or for good), so I'm gonna post that in turn..
Shame that there was no early/low "good" entry although I think a lot of folks took the PB. Just been ugly for me, since I dared try and take that first IB only to get whiplashed silly by it both ways.
Oh, almost missed that - the top of the PB is also the low of the BUOB. Once again: stacking blocks.
P.S. I still don't trust any of this. I'm torn between calling this the end of a rather erratic correction, allowing for a shot at the high again(on GBPUSD, carry pairs) or whether it's simply the end of the first big swing down, now to retrace to a crucial level and then get ready for the next run...
You sound like I felt last week when everyone else was raking in the pips...so I got breakeven...I am currently plus a zillion on gbpjpy and plus a gazillion more on aussie , you have to take your own advice from a few weeks ago and just go with the flow man, I wish I could find your post, you were rambling about eur or cable cant remember which hmmm, Raz
Hey Raz,
it's really no prob, I was barely at home the last 4-5 days and distracted, so half of me missing all of this is to blame on that and half is due to me being sceptical of the places where the Pins formed in the first place.
I'm lacking conviction of these moves so I am lacking good trades.
Missed the only really good entry spots and can't just throw on money in the middle, c'est la vie.
It's all good however, no worries.
ok im new with the price action stuff so bear with me
heres the daily eurchf
looks like a pin
should i wait and enter on a small retracement or should i place my order when it breaks?
obviously i have to wait for the close to see if anything changes
would u guys take this one?
thanks
Heya!
Agree with Mike, needs to close first and on break seems safest in these market conditions.
Personally I'd love to see the xxxCHF pairs all give me a similiar "wink and nod" and currently GBPCHF is shifted higher thanks to EURGBP..so I wouldn't know. Looking at it "alone" it seems like a nice retracement pin if it were to close a bit lower and like a proper PB
But I trade a bit differently anyhow..but as you said, if it's just practice for seeing them..
hey there - as i am in the PB trade from last Friday, i wanted to know what you guys think about this idea: EU is going to form Head & Shoulders, therefore it should keep rising just a bit more before it falls again to the PB area.
Hi.
It's tilted a bit too much for my taste and has too high a shoulder for a nice HNS. But you can always look to see how today closes. If it's a PB you can move up your stops to below it for example, just going from a bar by bar logic without needing to worry about gigantic formations
Perfect example of how the channel top provides support and 2.0057 s/r held it in. Then it wound up, price tested inside the channel, rejected, made a 4h Pin Bar, then finally broke upwards.
Just a great example of seeing how a chart gets filled out (I posted this one just a day or two ago if you remember) and how s/r works.
If there's one thing I've learned recently from Demark, it's that channels and trendlines are by and large very subjective and thus unreliable for analysis by the masses. You and others may have a good feel for drawn trendlines that price finds s/r at, but IMO too many people, especially new ones like myself, have been led astray by "the up channel" or "the down trendline"...
Hey Josh..
Hehe..
I thought one of the points of reading / learning DeMark's TLs was to define "true" trendline points (low / high with two neighbors or something)? :P
Well, ironically enough that's how I used to think about all of it when I began, too. Not that that ever stopped me from drawing more and more trendlines day by day. I just always was secretly annoyed at RaczekFX for being able to draw those TLs that actually guided price and I somehow always seemed to "miss".
(generalized "you" as in "one" follows
But at some point you realize what to look for and which TLs are more and which are less helpful. What others do or don't draw is completely irrelevant.
YOU trade off YOUR charts, that's the only reality that counts.
Hence it is GOOD that they are subjective, because so is your trading.
You don't really NEED trendlines to begin with, since they often coincide with s/r, like on cable => 1.9665 I had as normal horizontal s/r and that's also where one of many possible trendlines rests.
Same deal with 1.3363 and 1.3433 EURUSD.
But they are important for me to decide when things are leaving "bounds" behind and a change of trend is imminent. Prolly why folks call em trendlines :P
No really, I'm guessing. I haven't read one complete forex book in my entire life, nor do I care to. Quite frankly - if you need more than 30 pages to outline what your core trading logic is about(not counting pictures/charts that is), then in MY opinion you're either clueless or overcomplicating things or simply looking for an excuse to ask 149.99$ for a lot of fluff over a few hundred pages. ;p
Most strategies on FF only need 1-5 posts to outline how they're traded and they work just as well or "unwell" as any book out there sold promising the "key to forex trading"..
Man, have I ever gone off topic now..lol...let's end it here ;p
What is the current state of affairs with the PF? Is it actively being attended to? Is there new info/videos still being added daily/weekly? How involved are the founders? I really want to join, but I'd like the most up-to-date information about it that I can get before I do...
As for your question, yes, James and the others still post updates and are always there to answer questions. Also Mike and others, myself included, try their best to help as well and have threads(and in my case a journal) of our own we maintain "over there".
Hm.
On a side notice:
Looking over my .gif directory, I think I made (and posted a lot of) around 300 charts this August so far already (posted em all over the place, both sides)..eeeek!
what do you think of this one here? 2 TBH forming in the same area, one of them provided TBHLC and the second is just a simple TBH, how would you play this one???
Connect them with a TL, wait for price to make a close above it, retest it from above, hold, make a bullish setup, enter off that ;p
Edit: Ah, I see Mike is essentially looking for the same thing: "I will look to use this area as support" =)
never thought of it that way actually - maybe i will just take aat look at it this time, since i have never traded anything but PA by JAMES16 it is kinda hard for me to find all these things that are just waiting out there
EDIT - i tried it that way - is it correct??
Well this is just me being creative with trendlines and s/r areas. Don't know if it's anything that should be done or "proper", it's just something I like to look for, these "razor" trendlines, cutting up price. They're a bit like diagonal s/r if you ask me.
But as I said before - you could just use "normal" s/r, works just as well. Marked it blue as always.
Currently see us caged in, one side is gonna give I guess. Would much prefer getting a retest+setup rather than entering anything pretending to break only to fake.
Did u see this Pin Bar , also with confluence of Moving Average, Price Pivot, Fibo Level.
Also i see divergence with Slow Stoch
Sell it GBP/USD ??
Hi latinoholic,
I cannot give any sort of trading advice. Yes, there's a PB on my Windsor feed as well. It has already broken/activated. It is almost / sort of against s/r...had it been 15 pips higher I would have really liked it...I think Mike was looking for the same price level.
It's been a small volume day, but it might end up working. Personally I'd see it as a lower confidence trade and use less risk..
I can find you a trendline to coincide with this PB...I'll post my old chart updated with it, one sec...
Here you go. Hey, it might even be a better trade than I thought with the TL if it can move below 1.9900-70 again..
P.S. I think the whole "no more hikes for you!" logic might be coming into play as well..don't hit me for saying something funn(d)y ;p
i think (or at least hope so...) that the monthly PB of the USDCAD is reactivating itself, i checked the 4h chart and saw that the trendline was broke to the upside - would love to hear someone tell me i am right.
seeking??
Heye mamutot,
looks like a perfect one for Mike, he's been into Mouteki again lately
That'd probably be a mouteki entry right there, long like you said. The whole monthly shebang is pretty suspicious to me now, but heck, we've got the whole week to still take off. No rush, ey? ;D
Everything can happen in a heartbeat in these conditions. Everything is still very fragile.
And an avalance can start with a snowflake...
I didn't take the PB at the low since it was just too tiny and I was preferring the daily IB break lower instead originally.
Left that behind for +-0 pretty quickly ;p
Currently trying to make sense out of everything myself here...
I will post some charts to my journal though. There were some okay carry pair trendline hits / setups, the Kiwi one was even on the FF frontpage, by some contributor.
Didn't really take anything since there wasn't that much clarity in the setups for me...I don't like Raczekfx daredevil plays yet, although they can be extremely rewarding...I wish I could do them...
Keep in mind there will be a TL underside for USDCAD again as well...1.0580-1.0610ish? Something like that I guess...not sure where to "put it" at the moment...
and vote for what you believe is best. Please also state your opinion in text if got the time.
It's about the new way charts are only thumbnailed instead of shown directly and I want the old way back.
I have had major headaches not being able to see my own posted charts directly in my own journal and Merlin said that if other people agree that the old way of viewing charts directly was better, he'd change it back.
I also believe that the old way of displaying charts is a lot better for posting them here and being able to read both the post content explaining what's on the chart WHILE seeing the chart AT THE SAME TIME, TOO.
Without having only a thumbnail.
So please take a look and if you liked the old way better, too, vote!
I have traded the AUD/USD PB... looking like a good trade but I don't know if I dare to wait and see if price will come all the way down to the 365 ema
By now / at the current phase of trading I'd rather risk the handful of pips I could have had NOW rather than miss out being in the next big snowball down when I had a great entry.
It is still devilishly hard to do however, but I am trying my best. Takes a lot of confidence and faith though, and I am still a poor wavering soul a lot of times
OK I took my 120 pips profit on LONG USD/CAD... !!!
+ 113 pips on yesterday's PB AUD/USD... can it keep going???
In these conditions it's a good idea to live up to "let your profits run" instead of cutting them without a reason. I took a small amount of profit but held over 60% on USDCAD myself as I see the USD breaking out again. We could be in for more of a surprise than many thought perhaps. It will be an interesting Asia indeed.
Yes that is what I did, but the pin bar was I believe 2 days old, the 2nd eye was 1 day old. And it was off a daily, on FXCM charts. It was off of the 26th too, so even more useless, eh?
Heya J2!
Hm Sunday bar? Well I ignore those. Since there are no charts I don't know what stuff you meant, else I'd take a look and try and give you my thoughts on it..
I think GBPCHF has been a bit tricky on daily, IB that broke up first, then down, then another move up..I am seeing a DBLHC coming today and if that goes and takes off I'd recommend holding on to that trade.
For, uh.
A long time. If possible. ;p
Coz if I'm right, it could go from the DBLHC to oh, say, 2.5. One could use it as a pretend weekly trade and enter off daily e.g.
Gonna have to think about taking this myself really...will try and get a small timeframe setup long tomorrow if there's a retrace. Once we close above 2.43 for good again I'd get pretty optimistic. Well, this is all fantasy until it actually happens. Maybe it'll all blow up instead, eh? Never know =)
The dreaded tea cup is not encompassed in my "Arcane Book of Bar Price Action"
It's a common fx pattern though. Basically means: Pin Bar with retrace
And NF = North Finance. Their daily bars already closed by now, InterbankFX closes in 1h.
And yes, there's basically the same long setup on almost every carry, major and exotic pair. We're all slaves to the DJI, that did the same thing, so we're all now looking the same today.
Anyone took took this PB? It could be worth few pips .
Time to buy some long term calls..SL ?
.
Don't look at me, I'm bearish USD again until proven incorrect...I sold USDCAD today at 1.0620 and moved stop to 1.0610. Either it goes to 1.02 or it doesn't, but that's where I prefer to aim(after surviving 1.0450 / 1.04) until 1.3550 EURUSD dies and 81.20 USDX gets exceeded. (USDX has the identical price pattern as USDCAD, a potential head and shoulders. So far the neck has not been broken yet. Roughly 1.37 - 1.3780 EURUSD would do it though and 1.38 possibly for good..)
Btw, sometimes it can be very interesting to look back on how old posted charts fill out.
I posted this one / charts with an 220/221 target around the 8-14th of August I believe...at least that's what timestamp and date on my gifs are saying(we were at 235 at the time).
I dont see a DHBLC on that chart. What am I missing?
What else did you predict that with, other than a massive Fibonnaci Retrace?
If you meant me and my chart, ignore all the text on it, that was meant for daily bars. I had to toggle it to monthly to show all of the move and it was merely to illustrate the targets and prices. I posted the setups itself here on this very thread at the time.
Do not be afraid to read past posts on this thread as well, there are also good examples of setups in the past
Ah HA !!! I went short too on CAD !!! target 103.70 though I think it would go down more... I am more conservative where I take profits
Well I'm flexible. I'm open to the possibility we can turn around still as well as 1.0.
It's a bit "I'll believe it when I see it". Until then it's trying to get in on moves early and give each side a shot and protect capital until the actual move crystallizes.
The market hasn't decided yet, so I haven't either
I got in the short due to a 4h PB after a double top at the shoulder level of what could either be a head and shoulders or a very big initial swing up, retest down, start to move up again..RaczekFX seems to favor the monthly PB, you the HNS for lower...I'm trying to stay sane ;P
I managed to come out with a few pips for this week but I am very disappointed in myself,
I dont like jumping in and out of positions, Ive worked hard to stop doing things like this...
It seems the lure of easy money is still there...I am very disappointed in myself!
A friend of mine has spent the week boasting about positions and his ability to see where the market is going, and I finally got fed up with it and told him to be humble
Heya Raz.
I know the feeling and phenomenon. Well, it's been a bit tricky going for a lot of folks I feel. I know it's been for me, albeit mostly due to self-sabotage (great plan, manual botch up, wasting most profits...old story).
Just wanted to say that the fact that you notice this behavior and can see it also gives you the chance to work progressively against it. Find out when what "triggers" you and then find out in what ways you can prevent this.
Anything from just walking away to working out or doing a crossword or whatever. Just something to counter-act it.
If you've worked hard on it then I am convinced you will continue to work hard on it, since that work in itself is an investment you're loathe to just give up, right?
Don't be disappointed or disheartened. Use the frustration to strengthen your resolve to be more level-headed and disciplined in the future instead.
Ask yourself why you're doing the bad things. Then ask yourself why you are here trading in the first place. Ask yourself what you want. Why you want it. What it's "worth" to you. What it means to you.
Realize where you are in your value system with all this.
Get a path laid out. Look for your goals. Look for your way towards them. Have a reason. Know this reason. Keep it in mind, always. When wavering, remember. Write it down, put it on post its, write it on cardboard, hang it over your desk/TFT, whatever.
Know what you want. Know why you want it. Achieve it.
(...I admit I am once again saying 90% of this to myself..)
And as for your invincible friend, humble or not, no matter. He is of no importance to YOU or YOUR trading. YOU matter and nobody else.
Don't spend thought, consideration and emotion on it/him while you're still developing yourself. You might even consider a "cutoff" period so that you can FOCUS. Sometimes you need to be alone to be able to be with others again. Only after finding yourself you can be someone others can find again as well.
And before I go too Buddha-mystical I will just stop here. And allow me to say this wasn't "your fault" alone Raz, this is what I came around to after playing basketball with a friend today and thinking a lot about all of this for myself, too.
Profitable movements in markets like dollar/swiss and euro/pound are far harder to hold onto than a nicely trending market like pound/yen.
I don't believe it's pairs, it's phases/waves/whatever.
USDCHF has had some seriously "easy" to hold on to trades on daily with nice moves and it's had some chop chop chop. There's the same messy periods on GBJPY(actually I see a LOT of that on this pair when I look at daily) and others, too. It's not constricted to pairs imho. Even the EURGBP has trended.
Hm. Rereading it, I think you meant that, too. What I'm trying to say is even a trending pair can go into corrective chop before coming back to the trend phase, one just has to figure out where one ends and one starts is the hard part
Or I'll put em up for syndication, sell the exclusive rights to pay per view and HBO or FOX or somethin' and only make 24 eps per year with a really predictable storyline ;p
Or put em in commercial breaks between title bouts..."Live from Madison Square Garden, it's......SeekingLight!" ;p
Think I've been spoilin' ya with that high a frequency
Gotta find something that isn't pure BS to video about again in the first place
Although I got one or two things in mind already for the next one...GBPCHF most likely, since that's the one I mentioned for a reason a week ago..
Does anyone remember when we discussed this EURUSD chart and I said look to the left / needs a CLOSE above 1.3684?
Here's what the updated chart looks like. Always interesting to keep these around. We've broken out of the blue box cage I mentioned back then, and as you can see yesterday's low rested RIGHT on the blue area I marked back then when saying "always look to the left".
I think keeping your charts around helps the learning and before / after.
Currently see us caged in, one side is gonna give I guess. Would much prefer getting a retest+setup rather than entering anything pretending to break only to fake.
Sorry Wiz :P
Also a "nyer" to cesarnc since this is exactly what I tried to tell him over in jacko's thread.
He announced a
Quote:
a MONSTROUS breakout across the board in the cooking right now...
This is one kind of setup we ask God for.
I asked him whether he'd practiced these and known them to work for him, how he defined his entry and where he expected price to go / where his projected target was.
He just got mouthy(" I know that you know the answers."), later went on to put me on his ignore list after I called the cable thread "noise" in the 1kT thread, announced me as a "persona non grata" and went on to lose money going long on the fakout parallel on GBPUSD instead of realizing that there perhaps might be a reason I went and asked such "silly" questions.
All he would have needed to say was this and that is my reason, I also see an inside bar right at key s/r, it's a good shot at breaking up, has nice r/r since I am aiming at xxx and think it's a good trade as it fits my plan. (Just to add this: those ARE good reasons. It COULD have worked. It WAS a setup. I just wanted to hear him say it so that he had a REASON)
When I say I try to HELP I mean it. I don't ask you why you think something is a good setup to ridicule you but to make you THINK. Mike taught me you need to have a reason for what you do - THANKS MIKE! - and I think this is one of the most important things to perpetually hold in front of ones eyes.
It's a great example of the difference between always being open, always wanting to learn(and realizing when someone's trying to help) and having the need to be right imho.
This is why I love this thread and the PF
Won't find that sort of behavior and reaction in either places.
Just because sometimes it helps to remind oneself what can happen to a trade if you LET IT.
One coulda let this one turn into a weekly trade from daily on and just give it a shot. There was also a setup along the way to add to the long, an IB on the marked s/r line after it was broken.
Would also have made a nice place to move the stop to 1.150 or so.
Is this a joke or is there a real video? I've been out for sometime, so I'm sorry if it's a joke or something ...
Thanks a lot,
Fabian
The videos we were referring to are in the private forum in my journal which I made over the course of the last week to illustrate some s/r stuff and other concepts I (ab-)use in my trading.
I'm long Gold now from a break of this key resistance at $675...I hope that's not a fake out too...
I was gonna say well even if you're not with it today, I'm still with you, but I just read you already left Gold again
I'm still long from 665$, 666$ and 674$, stops at b/e, 670$ and aiming for 700$+++ since I believe that if 681.5$ s/r and 685$ TL goes, there's a really good shot at 700$.
Also the amount in real money I am trading are only "for fun", so it's more a question of "how far can we go" rather than "oh no, I am so heavily long I need to take profit or get a heart attack now" levels
Very good for seeing how trades can grow and develop =)
Also I want the NUMBER!
Would be nice to stay above the 672$-675$ area even if pushed back by that TL. I had originally thought there was a HNS on weekly, but so far we've almost taken outthe right shoulder and I think we got a good shot at making a (possibly minor) new high for 2007 before another dip back sets in.
This is just wild guessing on my behalf, not something to trade from, obviously. I'm just speculating on some scenarios. Things can and will change on a daily basis.
Some really nice setups across the board today, close is in 1h.
I'm still long from 665$, 666$ and 674$, stops at b/e, 670$ and aiming for 700$+++ since I believe that if 681.5$ s/r and 685$ TL goes, there's a really good shot at 700$.
Mike must be burping right now, the 685$ level was chock full with stops right behind the TL it appears. Rose 4$ in a straight line in a few seconds once triggered in a cascade. Stops at 677$ now, entry was 666$ + 674$ addon.
Now, about that 700$... ;p (693$ first is okay, too!)
Maybe the gods will smile on me and give me a retrace free move?
The 674 entry was that tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiny IB on the way, can you see it?
When price keeps hammering at a resistance like the Euro is with 3670, I think eventually the chances become high it will give way forcefully.
The fake out last week resulted in price coming back to trade beneath this resistance but the hourly time frame (4 bars with the same high - 72 - to the pip) show me that this level is under attack again.
If it breaks and is not a fake out I would expect 3730 and then 3840.
What was it....markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?
I must have been a good boy to've gotten my wish so early
3$ shy of 700$ so far
I'll just leave stops at 677$ and see where it takes me. 703-4$ next target, then 711$. 723$ might also be hit some day, possibly causing a bit of a breather.
Just toying with this atm, it's not a big position even at 3 parts
I went short on GBP\JPY last night, because on MT4, I saw a triple low bar develop. While in fact the 1st bar was 6 pips higher in its low, doh!
Anyways, I'm at -70 pips now;
I also found some fib retrace confluence, and figured that would help my case... hoping the weekly trend is getting broken and heading south...
Am I totally off here?
Hiya J2,
you should try and take demo as serious as live else why do it?
If you need the live factor to do it more disciplined put 20$ into Oanda and use those
Keep in mind even triple bar lows need to be broken first and in direction of the main / current trend, as well, else it's dangerous.
Heck, EURUSD showed breakout trading is dangerous even with the trend. I don't like those (breakout trades)one inch. Much prefer early entries and being sitting secure when things are hitting big s/r.
Like Mike said - trade off the chart, not off of hope
If instead of always going for the monster one woulda looked closer at the "core" pair, there was a super duper simple shmimple setup. (just think that the old "small stop = more leverage vs giant stop = lower leverage still holds true for UJ vs GJ...it's not about the pips, it's about the r/r or % in / out)
DBHLC, IB, breakdown of both after a TL loss => fall.
IB was the thing to trade here to the downside. Coulda put the order to coincide with the DBHLC low break.
DJI and S&P trendlies died parallel to this as well.
(P.S. Gold hit that 700$ and 704$, yayyyyy! Took first third off.)
Interesting setup forming on the aud. Last week was an I4B on the weekly. On the daily we have a pinbar(in traffic) forming on support, after a break of the trendline
Also EURAUD did a PB @ s/r, .382 and prior TL underside.
(leveraged AUD long in effect)
Has s/r along the way however. Shooting for 1.6430, above the lows we established for either a close out or a stop move.
Btw, I don't "know" EURAUD, so I'm really just saying what appears to be there.
Since I am bored - Oil had a terrific setup. Looked this up since we still need to buy heating oil for the winter and I guess we sorta missed our chance there...
Maybe the prices will have a bit of a delay trickling through :P
No worries here at least, trading my own convoluted logic ;P
I in turn hope nobody comes here to trade "foreign" setups, either.
The thread I believe(just my opinion/perception) should be to show, illustrate and share discussion on setups, not telling people what to trade.
It's highly important that one always makes one's trades on their own and for their own reasons.
Else you find yourself in a whole bucket full of teeth and nails real quick, cursing about a trade not doing something you'd expected or doing something you can't / don't understand in the first place.
Early on I did that a few times(back when...oh can I even still remember hehehe). I think most everyone probably tried it at some point, and it was the WORST thing I ever did. Really the worst feeling.
There's nothing worse than not knowing what's going on and taking other people's trades. It is truly the biggest cardinal sin anyone can commit.
(No, this cannot be overemphasized)
The whole point of learning and growing as a trader is to develop your own view and perspective and being able when someone goes "I shorted xxxx" to go "Meh. Not a setup to me, because..." to yourself and have REASONS.
Or if you do decide to take something, you in turn have REASONS.
This is also what I mean when I say blot out all the noise and detach yourself.
Yea sure you can hear what others are saying and so forth once you are emancipated and independent in your own trading and have fun pondering about, but you will never feel any influence due to it since you already have a plan and a reason.
Because you have a way of trading.
Because you know what you're doing (or trying to do).
You already have your perspective.
You're solid.
This is a hard point to get across since one can distinguish between the learn and adopt phase and the focussed on what you're doing phase.
Then once you're set, you're open to being (either) amused and (/ or) educated by further input with already A SOUND BASE IN PLACE.
Ironically enough once you're there it's easily understood and distinguishable, but sometimes when I say this I still get those "yea, but we're all here to learn and you need to adopt something and what's wrong in taking bits and pieces" etc posts if I post it in other threads than this one...
Yes, but you won't get anywhere unless you focus first.
You won't get coherent if you system hop.
You won't get your own viewpoint if you keep listening to others and are swayed and influenced.
You can't put together bits and pieces and decorate if there is no foundation yet.
You need to emancipate yourself first, then you can set out to discover new shores - if you wish to do so.
This is of course just my opinion(and experience), I could be wrong.
Boy, this turned into a bigger essay than I thought initially rather swiftly, didn't it.....Rambling Ron, rambling on....
Hey HipsterPipster, I am watching all these with you. I watch over 80 markets. The Dow had a nice pin yesterday on my feed which would have made a superb trade.
Dear lawd ;p
And I thought I was bad lol :P
Just remember: Putting 1% on 4 pairs is just as good as 80 x 0.05%
I'm long in that from 0.6771 (confirmation of a wave 3 up after the consolidation / BUOB daily entry / retrace bus end to weekly PB top confirmed, later we got a 2 bar Weekly PB off the top of the last weekly PB)
Just wish I had put on more, I'm blaming my EURGBP long for the misery I am suffering on GBPUSD.
...and who was it that said you shouldn't trade against the trend?! If - and that really is the magic word, IF, you can cut your losses quickly and let you winners run, I sometimes think trading against the trend is the best way to make big money....
Or the safest way of burning it. Sure, catching those reversal pin bars on USDJPY and NZDUSD before the big meltdown was terrific and would have yielded insane amounts of pips. But those were big and on daily and one could have additionally made sure to enter on break.
In general it is a good idea to enter the PB that ends a COUNTER-TREND move, like the ones on GBPUSD and EURUSD at their respective lows.
I would not advise anyone to take any trades against a clear trend if they aren't 250% sure of what they're doing and why.
The ONLY counter-trend trade that will ever work out well is the one that starts either a big correction or turns the trend around - and how certain are you that you know when the trend's had enough?
Quote:
And talking of trends have you all been watching Gold? I've been trying to get on board this since I jumped ship before the move even properly got underway. Today formed a "pin bar" of a minor S/R zone but imo, not a tradable one.
Yes and no PB here, just an IB on my NF feed, matching highs.
Since I've already taken too much off I'm leaving my last piece on.
Seeing a 4h in traffic PB near the high, wouldn't be surprised if Gold had another 10$ left in it.
Quote:
For those of you who study candle patterns - do you guys all know the difference between a pin bar and a hangman? The latter being indicative of imminent demise...
Are those my gasping dojis or?
Quote:
And that brings us nicely to the EUR/GBP. And to think someone said the USD/CAD was hard to trade!
That musta been me, too ;p
Quote:
Look at the state of this chart. That monthly descending TL is irresistible but looking at how choppy price is, would you really want to go long bearing in mind the R:R ratio from having to put your stop where you won't get shaken out....questions, questions.
Actually R/R was great at the right spots and price not choppy at all if you waited for the place for it...let me get a chart out *groans because of his old aching back while digging in a bottomless chest of charts*...
here...originally made this one for Trader888 who was super bearish. I in turn said I'm looking for a long setup at the marked s/r area like a PB.
And indeed, after the big monthly 2 bar pb we end up in a weekly PB.
That was the first retrace bus.
We then break the downtrending corrective channel and make another weekly retrace bus 2 bar PB. Then we take off.
No magic, just TLs and TA.
The chop goes away a little bit if you go higher in timeframes.
Charts are starting to be like my kids, you see how they grow and develop over time...oh dear...I need more women in my life...
The reason there's so many USD and only a handful of other bills is because the garage owner diversified and put half his money in USD and half of it in real money ;P
*runs away before the american's chase him down* ;d
I know you are both going to have something to say about this...
I'll just paste what I wrote in the PF sans extras.
--------
Weekly bar is already a 90 pip rise. That's a lot of upside power.
I think it needed to retrace.
Sometimes some setups are just pullbacks to buyers.
Last daily bar was 55 pips up. That is a lot for EURGBP imho.
This all puts me looking to buy dips, not trying to catch a top.
Staying away from shorts on this one hence. It may just base at a TL I have it broke above.
One can always wait for what the daily will do. Personally I am certainly not in a hurry to be bearish on this one.
/////
Never hurts to click through those charts.
Not that that setup won't work out - I just don't like the situation.
Fact is, I'd love nothing more than for EURGBP to slow down a bit and cable to wake up again. But I just try and use good reasoning...in this strong a moving pair I just get scared easily and anti-trend seems so wwwwwrong ;p
Others love it(guess who I was thinking about...and an hour later you post it here hehehe...classic)...and what other than a reversal pattern to turn it around...but we will see..
P.S I know, I know, still 7 hours until the close...but they are quiet hours
shhhh
Nah, they can still get very noisy. How do you know it won't become a BUOB?
But there were some - wait for it - nice .... wait for it....4h! Pins mehehe
Rather insane behavior on the hike today, but the second expected outcome I wrote about here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=46688
came through...but whether it sustains long term we'll have to see.
OK, I have a real PA question... in the following chart I see this pattern over and over again, not just on 1 hr, but all time frames... last green candle is not a PB, but WHY, does price always fall after that candle ?? I have always seen it, but now I am paying more and more attention to it... I think it is tradable...
THX for your answers !!!
Tiki, I am not sure about the 1h, but I do believe the spike high at that rally attempt may constitute the B of an ABC down, one of those things I trade when they're clearly visible enough..current C down is in progress and hitting pretty darn hard...glad I cut most longs at that last 2.03x visit...took profit on the flip-shorts at 2.022 a BIT early perhaps :P
Might make some videos about that stuff very soon for the PF.
Completely blanked out at the 2 4h PBs at the top, ignoring them due to the daily BUOB...bah....silly me...never underestimate what the chart is trying to tell you...not once, twice...it was screaming HELLO, DUDE, SERIOUSLY, I AM EXHAUSTED, I CAN'T TAKE ANY MORE...and I was like...shhhyea, but that BUOB!.....and it was all like..DUDE, SERIOUSLY...PIN BARS, WAKE UP!..
It was all hands over ears, nyanyanyanyanya and downhill from there ;p
Lets see if I can make some really stupid trade tonight to actually lose some pips !!! And make up for just sitting here on my duff !!
Don't be angry at yourself - if you didn't see a setup, there was nothing you could have done, period.
Some days we just have to watch.
The next setup will come.
Don't trade in anger or out of spite.
Have a nice evening with the wife instead, do something else than trading, I'm sure you will think of something...and just relax a bit...spare time is so hard to come by...cherish it....don't anger yourself...it only leads to trouble and a downward spiral....stay away from the negativity, it is your greatest enemy..
And if you do trade - don't stake more than usual. Don't trade different than usual. Nothing happened. It's just another trade...all rules still apply, same as before..keep this in mind.
P.S. imho there was NO setup on GBPUSD before the drop and there was no 1h PB. GBPJPY had a 4h PB on the IBFX feed however as just posted.
abc is just a 123 move off of the high, which can either end after that 3 step or pull up again and then do a last final push down in a larger ABC 3 step in turn.
Then the old abc is just the A, then a move back up happens in B, then a final push down in C....
But the initial abc is enough to get a first initial target, in this case FE 100 - 161.8 are usually a good idea to look for confluence with other things with.
In this case the channel low = FE 161.8 as well, so that might be a nice spot to TP and if it breaks, possibly readd on a TL underside retest+PA setup.
Then it's just s/r and fibs, I'd trail until contrary PA shows.
This is all just crutches, simplest way is just to trail things.
Oddly enough on my IBFX feed the TL comes in at FE 138.2, but not on the Windsor one...maybe one of the two is broken or it's that stupid MT4 oddity...
So it was Northern Rocks announcement that triggered the GBP nosedive last night...
I'll take obscure elliot waves over news any day(5 wave sequence completes at high, makes 2 PBs at s/r, then goes into the usual abc / 123 / down retrace down for good pattern).
Another way to project a target to line up with s/r - fib extensions.
The "problem" with those is that they're usually not that "far" away, i.e. small targets.
Notice how there was a TBL at that s/r(2.0233) before it broke down after "pulling back" in the b to .786.
P.S. watching EURGBP for signs of stalling / retracing, maybe cable will finally get to make up at least a small bit of lost ground today or next week? Took my core long off for +102 for now, flat, waiting for retrace...just hit too many targets here (FE 100 + 161.8 fib extension of prior range + I've been counting crows, er, waves..also we've just moved above a TL, that usually causes exhaustion pretty soon afterwards because people just looooove to retest those...except in Gold and EURUSD it seems hehehe)
abc is just a 123 move off of the high, which can either end after that 3 step or pull up again and then do a last final push down in a larger ABC 3 step in turn.
Then the old abc is just the A, then a move back up happens in B, then a final push down in C....
But the initial abc is enough to get a first initial target, in this case FE 100 - 161.8 are usually a good idea to look for confluence with other things with.
In this case the channel low = FE 161.8 as well, so that might be a nice spot to TP and if it breaks, possibly readd on a TL underside retest+PA setup.
Then it's just s/r and fibs, I'd trail until contrary PA shows.
This is all just crutches, simplest way is just to trail things.
Oddly enough on my IBFX feed the TL comes in at FE 138.2, but not on the Windsor one...maybe one of the two is broken or it's that stupid MT4 oddity...
Just wanted to add that the FE 161.8 was exceeded. This for me makes me very alert as the GJ PB also just triggered and is sitting on the daily / 4h TL now.
If that goes and cable does, too, this is dangerous stuff.
The fact cable exceeded that FE and lost the TL imho opens up risk for a wider retrace as it no longer fits just a simple ABC => it's a bigger move.
Might go all the way to 1.9990/2.0. Not impossible. EURGBP is back to rallying
Scary scary to see pairs so decoupled =)
270 off the high for cable, 70 for EURUSD...
My biggest dilemma with these situations is I can't look at pairs in isolation well.
I like / need an across the board "gist" of "what is going on". (USD sold? JPY bought? CHF? What?)
Not happening right now...so I could just be talking total BS, as usual ;d
P.S. who else here hates the fact MT4 isn't worth s...t for across timeframe TL drawing? Draw one on 4h, it's in the desert on daily, draw one on daily, it's completely elsewhere on 4h.....arghhhhhhh....
While looking at my USDCAD chart your ABC question popped up in my mind so I thought to draw this for you. After seeing this I closed all my USDCAD short positions... *back in the bush with my trusty sniper now.
Heya...yea I posted this in my journal as first target, roughly 1.0285 or so it was, TP was set for the round number...but USDCAD is tricky, when it trends it tends to just gogogogogogogo since it's so darn "soft" (read: apparently illiquid) and the squeezes are even more fierce....I guess any bigger retrace will prolly be worth shorting, but the tricky part is distinguishing the short ones from the ones that take a week or two.
Mh.
I think I've done more damage than good posting stuff with those projections..
I'm currently in the process of trying to get better at what I do - I still get "paid" far too little for what I trade in time and effort and part of the reason is cutting my profits short and scaling out instead of in.
Will do some soul searching and attempt to make me a new ruleset.
Old way "works", but it needs coupling with PA - i.e. don't leave the party if nobody told you to get out(no reversal setup). Only get out if you're thrown out
Just trying not to cause any harm here and I think there's a risk for that...raczekfx already showed how to do it right on cable: large targets, far, far away, dare to dream, don't be shy.
I wouldn't be holding 40$ Gold if I hadn't allowed for it to happen(first: I'd like to see 700$. Okay, saw it, how about another 20$?...etc).
Or those last few EURUSD 1.36 longs(again, terrible trade management, didn't scale in properly enough, only had some small interim trades. Still, a start.). Or the 100 pip EURGBP I closed out - again, prematurely. Still might have soooooooo much juice left in it - the big 0.7 awaits.
Or or or....I've had so many positions which showed insane pips and had squazillions of "waymarks" where I could have added and doubled or tripled+++ the profit.
This needs to change and it needs to change soon. I am not nearly making the most out of my trades. There's being safe and there's being stupid and I don't like even coming close to the latter.
As far as exits go, if you want to catch the big moves then you have to be prepared to ride a trend through all the areas where you think it may turn against you.
The crucial difference is this: If you trade with pre-defined targets you are predicting where the trend will stall or turn and anticipating it. If you trend trade, you are admitting you cannot know what the market will do and instead you simply follow it.
Well, or in essence cutting your profit short. Or maximizing it.
Quote:
This is what I would love to be able to do, as I said. But I have only found success with the target approach so far.
When I trade, I take a pin (or other price action setup) off a decent PPZ or EMA (the more confluence the better) and I watch it as it comes into the next area I have marked on the charts that it could turn at. When it gets to this level, if I see any sign of reversal I get out. If it goes cleanly through it without hardly a pause, then I move my stop to that area.
It really is the exits that matter.
Right. Well let's address this all a bit without really doing so and without solving anything.
This is all stuff everyone will come across sooner or later and in the end the dilemma is always the same.
Nobody wants to leave profit behind, one or the other way.
The trouble is - you can't predict things most of the time.
If you were able to figure out which really are the turning points, then that's what we're looking for. 1.3440 EURUSD was that for example. I was originally eyeing up 80 pips higher I think it was and when that was exceeded I dropped all plans to go long, but I was looking at that area as key reversal and "mid term" long entry, i.e. a buy and hold for at least 1.39.
Completely blew that one due to the "exaggerated" end
Anyhow.
What I'm trying to say is - trouble is being unable to perfectly distinguish stalling from reversing and finding out the difference between interim bounces and real key turn points.
If one knew about each ahead of time we'd all be rich.
There are means of finding more likelyhood for it all etc, but the question boils back down to: do you want to give each trade the chance to become a multi day winner or are you looking for a quick but safe profit?
The answer is most likely in how "well" you trade. If you can find perfect mini-trades all the time and "scalp" 1-2 days out of the market always, then there won't be a problem since you have a high win rate and your r/r is at least / greater than 1:1.
If you prefer to shoot for the big runs then you might have 5 tries that go sour and end up for a small loss or 0, but you eventually find the turning point you wanted and are in for the next 300-1200 pips..
I think the main trouble is trying to do all at once.
Wizard's approach very much resembles mine and is an attempt at a compromise, but how many times have I seen PBs at crucial s/r junctions that get to go a handful of pips and then get smashed down after the pullback being seen as a rally to sell into...well, it all depends on scale, timeframe and what's going on..not all pins are turning points for the whole market / long term direction and neither are all other setups...and again we're back to how to discriminate...
I guess one needs to find what works best for one.
Nice example is cable...raczekfx is already looking for doomsday prices and he may well be right to do so...
We could pretend we had a 2 bar weekly PB.
Why didn't I see that earlier?
See, we could now say hey, this is THE entry for the rest of the year, not move the stop for the next 2 weeks and see what monthly becomes.
Or we could go oh no, trendlines, must close out before they are hit...
We might end up bouncing a bit. Then the ones that closed out cheer "hah we were right, see that bounce!".
Then 5 days later they get crushed and the ones with the higher entries have those still AND some addon entries and end up with several hundreds as 1.8xxx trades again...or stopped for a loss as the cable phoenix returns from the ashes?
Since we're talking AUDUSD / EURAUD...highly defended zone down there where the core TL and .618 coincided. We hit that during the great unwind and it held smartly.
The uptrend remained intact.
Now we're at another crucial junction - .618 of the drop.
Anything can happen here, but the move is coming soon. Considering how the 1.6400 s/r held the squeeze might go upwards for a squirt, then stall, fall and fade to almost the lows, then continue...likes to be mean...at least that's what the last 2-3 did ;p
Okay, enough posting, it's 1 am, time for beddy bed.
No idea who / what will win, just trying to show some big pictures of the "where we are".
Yeah that was a bit of a rush...hope you all made pips there
Pips I ended up making quite a lot, I just wish it'd have been more money, too ;p
COMPLETELY borked the EURUSD entry, missed all of GJ, EJ, AJ...got in late on AUD, NZD...annoying mind-lag on such obvious weekly BUOB + retrace entries :P
Should have seen it coming...there were such superb pullback entries with nice confluence and I just sat here going "nyer nyer no no no daily BEOB market must obey ME not the PA nyer.."...sorta didn't work out.
So I paid +-0 or a little for the shorts and instead missed making real money on the long..tossed a bit of money out as cable retraced too far at the lows and so forth
Still looking to be in profit after the complete mess, but by far not as well as I coulda been...(there was a LOT of money lying around, ready to be picked up by PA traders today..)
Okay, here's a nice one: AUDUSD. Really lovely. An old PB connected with the original lows on the far left let's us build the TL.
Then we later get a weekly BUOB which triggers by a handful then PBs on 4h, falls down to the TL+.618 and PBs again. And that's the morning of the FOMC. TL +.618 + 4h PB after weekly BUOB = in before FOMC.
EURUSD had a similiar 4h PB on top of around 1.3830, but that was just insanely high..
Mike also posted the most awesome GJ 4h PB in the trader room "geppy" thread
Could this be a nice bounce off the TL for a move long ???
I expect 2.3350 to get a retest for now..we've lost a TL and gone past a prior low, it's pretty much a "must"..but nothing's really ever a must in this market ;p
2.32 and 2.2825 could be in if GBPUSD loses the last trendline...
This might be the crystal ball for GBPUSD's future, the chart looks the same, just a week or two ahead of GBPUSD..or is it behind?
Hi guys,
Well cad is on my list of "non grata" pairs Instead I stole 50 pips on the break of the tbh on eurusd daily...sometimes these setups are just begging to be traded! I feel so lucky to have found PA, thanks Jim , Im no longer calling tops, but considering "continuations"...good luck all, Raz
This marks the transition from "Beginner" to Adept
Seriously well done Raz!
I skipped USDCAD(even though I found reasons for and against, but my mind was SCREAMING at me, literally, screaming, this one is NOT going to make it). And I've changed my outlook.
I am now expecting another 200 pips lower on USDCHF, call me crazy.
GBPCHF has obeyed and fallen to new lows, yay.
I expect 2.3350 to get a retest for now..we've lost a TL and gone past a prior low, it's pretty much a "must"..but nothing's really ever a must in this market ;p
2.32 and 2.2825 could be in if GBPUSD loses the last trendline...
Just an update.
Moving towards s/r and TL...will we get to 2.3250?
The pressure could also come from a rising EURGBP plus an outperforming dropping USDCHF while cable goes only slightly up or sideways or down.
EURCHF is also starting to fall.
I am keeping my eyes peeled for a FA news report about Switzerland being the new America or similiar for reasons to have CHF be the next supapowa currency ;p
Hmmmm I should convert my EUR NOW while I still can!
(P.S. Tiki I'm still short USDCAD, yes, but it's worth less than a round of Pizza Supremes, it's a symbolic trade to me *smile* Over 350 pips...moving towards parity now)
Note the touches.(there's also an alternative TL one could draw to actually hit the lows on the corrective downward channel, but meh...there's always several TLs around..didn't want to crowd the chart)
Alas... seeking light has gotten his parity on usd/cad....
Is this all just luck...?? Or I guess those complicated charts really dooo work... !!!
Bad day for me... I am out $ 40 today... 2% of my account... got to go and regroup... drink something ...
I'm sorry Tiki
Why didn't you put the order at break of the PB? You would have been safe and sound! Especially on this small a PB and this strong a fall it's super dangerous to go against it without at least a SMALL confirmation (even then I didn't have much hope, I wrote the reasons over in the PF)..
Did anyone else take break of daily 2 bar high & 1.4 on the euro.
Nice little profit so far so have moved the stop to break even for rest of position.
Also the break of the daily buob on the ausie
No, but I took this, crazy as I was :P
Correction channel, pinned at the low, moved above, hop+retest(journal readers will know that by now hehe), DBLHC(also on top of the 2bar PB => retrace bus), takeoff.
Limit was 1.4 for 2/3 however, since I went to bed around 30 minutes later and didn't want to see things go into the crapper.
The remaining 1/3 is still around.
Not a trade I'd advise taking. Risk was 0.1%, took it mostly to see what would happen and for practice
Okay, since the last drop didn't exactly go all the way as planned (darned PB on TL after Fed emergency 50bps discount cut Friday!), here's a second try ;p
This time it's either all or nothing!
Let's see whether this spooky scenario unfolds for real or not...if anyone needs a good FX pair to correlate - look no further than CADJPY ;p
Best seat in the house right now if you ask me...since everyone of the "analysts" is screaming "best sell EVURRRR" I am bracing myself for a very hard rally up eventually
And USDCAD up means CADJPY down...unless USDJPY rallies it's butt off...anyone seeing that happen? Anyone.....any takers...long USDJPY....come on....anyone.... :P
Yea. Well, nothing's impossible.
So far it's all just mad rantings, but boy, wouldn't it be NICE to be in the next run from the top....gotta be a bit mad sometimes, gotta be a bit mad....dare to dream =)
Otherwise - it'll just be a mad chart...soon forgotten =)
What's it to do with PA? Well, nothing big yet. The USDJPY IB break would be helped by this. Or the EURJPY one. And so forth...but the market is still feeling very whacky to me...I mean, exotics higher, but USDJPY destroyed...meantime, major USD selloff...humzz....All getting a bit mysterious...
Looking for good setups, looking for good setups...hey Razl, I'm still trying to catch tops...man...everyone's gotten ahead of me... :P
Just something to laugh at..here's the chart. I expect new highs tomorrow now that I've posted this
Yes I can see where there may be a PB forming on usd/jpy... except if it does end up as some kind of PB... it will be well down compared to the previous candle... and at this point I am getting very skeptical of PBs that arent so perfect... like last nights eur/cad...
I do however like the swiss 4 hr PB... and I am thinking about that one...
You're gonna hate me for posting this :P
Not saying anything, but every rise has this TL to consider if it wants to go anywhere on USDJPY.
Always be picky about PBs - Mike sets the standard!
Look at the swissy daily bar, measure the 4h, measure daily...look at EURUSD...are you feeling pro or anti USD now? :P
Not trying to talk you out of or into anything...just saying...market's gone done crazy USD dumping...why the wish to buy it on 4h setups if everything from daily to weekly is extremely anti-USD....just my thoughts, no offense meant =)
Market could be minutes to hours away from proving me completely wrong every time I post :P
Everything finds it's end sometime. I'd just rather see a pretty darn large sign of that happening before putting money on it first though here :P
On my chart I have a 2x4h PB right in traffic which has already done your favorite .618 retrace. Would be a second daily doji in a row, but that's still 3 hours away I think.
It's at FE 100 from the lows(could be that's just a bit of resistance) and the high was rejected by .768 of the whole drop(again - could just be temporary).
I'm skeptical, of course, but it looks a lot like what GBPUSD did right before it fell back to near the lows. Just saying. Not advocating anything.
Just now realized the USDCHF setup came from you, great, now I'm scared for my remaining USDCHF shorts, well done
Hmmmmmz, could we be at the end of the tunnel...is the USD alive and kicking....will Harry meet Sally...
btw, @cologg - PPZs are explained more in depth in the PF, yes
I try to just use the term s/r most of the time since PPZ is a revered term for me, bit like reserved for someone who can actually find them(those that work at least that is )..
Also - I am watching Kiwi vewy, vewy closely.
Tiki - I apologize, I'm starting to get infected....AUDUSD 4h mini-PB, USDCHF mini-PB....USDCAD mini-PB...I'm starting to gulp!
But then again....they all hapened after London....so heck...I dunno....beat me blue and call me charlie, I'm back off into my corner...
Ok Seeking,
call me crazy, but your comment about jappy has made me very very wary of selling now, ITS TRUE who in their right mind would buy jappy now? And yet, isnt that how it always goes? The herd mentality and all that...just for a joke I have put in a teeny weeny micro mini long, because I am a very sick individual and I have to see its not going to work...and because its teeny weeny mini micro means it will probly take off and make a zillion pips jeesh you cant win ehhhh, take care all, Raz
I like your contrarian style
A true market mover you are indeed, +100 pips off the low over night
Let's see the weekly close =)
It fell too far for a PB, sadly, so now it's prolly a doji unless one side runs away today...not cool. No direction.
Since I posted so much BS the last few posts I'd like to make up for it with a nice TL aided chart that shows why it pays to wait for these situations on the big picture.
I only put in 3 setups, but it's mostly to give an idea of where one can look for PA(and where price might stall). I'm sure there were still more along these TLs.
I did not take the chf 4 hr PB... I see it may have fired off at this point... but will it get far ?? I am not so sure... And also my principle rule is... I don't do 4 hr... heck, I still can't get daily right...
That old 4h PB you meant got killed last night. There was a new one on a different timezone that formed and triggered however, the one I just posted above. Might go for a handful as it coincided with EURUSD and USDCAD pinning...but yea I don't think 4h can be trusted to change the world just yet...might be a slight retrace to that 1.4 EURUSD everyone keeps talking about..
We will see. Given today's market behavior it appears best to stand aside if one doesn't have a very early entry into this jerking about...
And yes, being too zoomed in is a trap..I've found many times that looking at my charts too close I keep going hhhhmmmmmm huh what's up.....then at the end of the day I zoom out, make a big picture.....and go "well DUH! there was x y z!"...myea.
Need to do more half-day reviews of macro charts I think....
I would love to open more than one position, but currently I am demoing 2500 with GFT and can't get any smaller on my lots, nore open more.
Ok, lets analyze this trade. Entered short at 231.04 break of Wed. IB Maybe got greedy, but was looking for it to continue dropping to around 229, but should have taken the 229.50.
You were stopped for > 0, right?
No problem then?
No loss = no problem. It's just a delay until the next win. I don't know what wiz is going to advocate, but me I'd say that considering the BUOB before it you had two choices:
1. try the IB breakdown as a BUOB invalidating trade. No limit then.
2. try the IB breakdown as a scalp off the daily. < 1:1 r/r, target .618 at the most of the BUOB in most cases. Not a good idea and most likely woulda just kept you sidelined in the first place (it ended up at an ABC end / .786 of the BUOB here, but I'm sure we can find 1000000 arbitrary fib relations, what matters is the common ground)
For case 1 you are happy to be stopped for 0 as it turned around, as you aimed at a breakout of the range / breakdown of the BUOB = massive pips, not a scalp.
For case 2 you woulda ALSO been happy not to get a loss since it was a high risk trade and any pip over 0 was a good deal considering the BUOB.
So, again, no idea what others will say, that's my take on it.
I don't like starting with "yea, but you coulda dropped down to 1h and you woulda seen a reversal setup and coulda closed" etc pp.
That can be good to do, yes. But you know when? When you spent over a year on it and can distinguish a 1h PB that will only retrace 30 pips from one that can turn into a 4h, daily one that can turn the whole thing around.
And even then - ick! Mixing timeframes is dangerous and I only know 1 guy really who excels in it and he, too, sometimes ends up having to re-enter simply because you can't take a 1h for granted when doing 1 day trading..
But I admit - I've done it myself, too. But a) mostly on trades I expected to go against me due to being counter trend and b) I mostly wait for 4h, not 1h - more powahhh.
Just saying - I don't think not having a loss is a bad thing to beat yourself up over....just a delayed win, not a loss
I'm not touching anything CAD !!!! Not a chance !!!
Makes me even more bullish on that pair than I am already ;p
Once the breaking point in most traders trying to go long is reached the market moves out. Actually probably a pretty good indicator - no offense.
I know EXACTLY how you feel Tiki, no lie and no doubt about it.
And yes, a very fundamental truth, mini accounts are to rob new people of their money, plain and simple. 200-500$ on mini, that's 50+% risk on a daily bar for crying out loud!
Large scale scam.
Yes, Oanda is great for their sizing and you just have to absolutely love the 1.2 - 1.5 spread on EURUSD.
You know, those EURCAD charts just make me think "looooooooooots of upside potential right there"...
And some of those HNS patterns are actually the ones that abort just around the neckline and then move higher (wave 2 ends most likely before a bigger move up starts, haven't figured it out 100% just yet...)
We already had charts in that regard, I think Wiz posted a nice example and on your big chart there's one, too.
I think the USD is going to take back some breathing space eventually, but even if not - EURCAD, GBPCAD and so forth make me believe there's a chance for USDCAD rising or at least staying solid no matter what...
Maybe I won't have made a giant butt out of myself after all talking about a potential low coming in USDCAD all week now? :P
We'll see...I just think there's GOT to be some "reality check / sanity point"...but heck, I've no idea about the FA side...so let's stick to them charts =)
Weekly and daily close will be interesting....and monthly...and...charts are just super ;p
Unfortunately, I don't think either of them are the greatest, and I doubt if they even register as worth looking at
Heya Tiki.
Well I don't like them either, but the USDCAD's gotta rise sometime.
I don't like the constant mention of Oil though.(not from you, you're cool, but from the analysts surrounding us everywhere hehe)
I could just as soon say it's correlated with Gold or Silver. Same charts lately. Want to know what I think why that is?
Because they're all denominated in - yepp, there's my real reason - USD.
Dollar devalues, all commodities need to rise to fetch the same "value", no?
USDX to me is more important as a guide there than Oil, but yea, they correlate, too, for the same reason really. So either works ;p
(I can't see USDCAD below 1 for long just as I can't see oil between 80-100$ for long term YET)
However, if EURCAD turns around you can have the USDCAD sideways or up even as EURUSD rises, which can be pretty spooky. We already had that happen for a while before the breakdown, while I was cursing my head off getting whiplashed to death on USDCAD, meantime EURUSD was rising merrily.
It's pretty okay I guess, the main point I want to make by linking it is: you're not going to make money by risking more than you win. Simply really.
If you risk 1% each time you enter a trade and you close out 0.2-0.3%, then all that will happen is a decrease in your account. Simple, brutal truth.
The only way you can even make it to break even when closing for less than 1:1 is if you feel more than half your trades will be winners for at least 1:1 of your risk.
Keep in mind - trend traders make profit with 30% win ratio because they HOLD the trades, not because they close them out. They spend most of the time "losing". But they aren't really. They are simply passing time until the big riders come along again, which they inevitably will. EURUSD is such a perfect example.
Imagine your plan on something we just had: The EURUSD PB at 1.3440. You close out 80% at 1.3500. Erm. Say again?
600 pips later you are sitting in the corner sobbing, cursing and being angry at yourself as 1.4000 is now a tiny dot below..
Is that approach really a good way to make profit?
My main worry is:
I read a lot of disappointment and growing distrust in your recent posts.
You seem to have gone from enthusiasm over pins to not trusting them anymore. You already anticipate failure before the chart even had a chance to move. This will seriously hinder your trading if it takes you over and grows to hamper your decision making.
The important distinction is: there is
1. justified doubt about a PB being a good or a bad one. That's fine. No confluence, bad placement, bad proportions. Wunderbar. No problem not to trust it and skip it.
and there is
2. getting burnt so many times that even pretty good looking setups "scare" you because you're emotionally stressed out from it.
Be careful not to fall into the trap or Nr 2. Been there, had that. Turns into a vicious circle of "skipping good setup due to fear, see it work, be angry, in turn make the mistake of taking a bad setup next, see that fail, lose even more faith, repeat".
The last two bits are fine though - daily PBs and WITH the trend. Especially the latter sounds good to me.
I just hope we won't suffer the usual irony of fate and just turn around as this takes effect
And just a couple of days ago we are all thinking how hard it really should be to get to 1.0000
Not me
I also mentioned oil at 80-100$ back in July and EURGBP having a shot at rising above 0.7
But that's just because I love making claims that seem far fetched at first and then have a chance to live up to the dreams...I've said it before - dare to dream...you can't win if you don't risk....(it also means you look like an a...a lot of times for making outrageous claims that end up faltering completely hehehehe...rather try than not though)
Quote:
And there is oil... climbing away... and that great CAD ecomomy... why shouldn't price go below 1.0000 ??? Have you closed out that SHORT ???
Yepp. Wanted to keep the last 10% of the "pizza position" for below 1.0, then we did go there and I ended up closing the lowest one at 1.007. Does that count as parity?
Well, it will have to do, lol...got what I wanted out of the trade - seeing that it's possible and satisfying that craving I am now trying to lose to "be right". Like a new guy in the PF has a signature - it's like "I'd rather be profitable (than right)"
Quote:
Sorry I cannot analyse it more like you can... you know far more than I do..
I'm just very good at appearing like that and again - I dare to dream hehehe ;p
Quote:
But does all this mean I cannot find a way to be profitable ? Even if I just don't know stuff as deep as you or others do ?? I refuse to believe that... it must be far easier to figure out if there is a good PB or not !!!
I'm sure Mike's videos (they are PF Material before people start swamping him with PMs about "where can I find those videos") will help enlighten all a bit more as well as his superb thread on it all(which is also in the PF)
By trading single lots for a while, you'll build that necessary confidence in your calls, and then, as your ability to spot potential winners improves, starting increasing your trade size.
Just remember to stick a stop in SOMEWHERE!!!!
Never forget them stops indeed.
Also bear in mind that when Peter says 'single lots' he's paraphrasing the use of "small small small small' positions, not saying use 1 USD per pip :P
It helped me a LOT to use 0.1% risk instead of 1% to "learn" how to trade again after a rather ugly, terrible and bloody period that had me psychologically devastated. You can still lose money with it nooooo problem, but 0.1% tends to be slow enough to let you live through it for a while.
If it still bleeds you too fast too soon, use 0.05% risk and so forth..
And even with the advice aspect aside, 0.1% risk is quite alright to trade with if you're getting 1:3 risk/reward....two or three 0.1% entries total and you can get your 1% in for the day/two days pretty swiftly.
And tadah, 5 days later the 0.1-0.3% risk made 1-3% return..which in turn would be pretty darn good considering most hedge funds are currently net negative for the year...
I'm saying this because I've actually had trades with 0.2% risk come back to me with around 0.5% made...this might appear tiny tiny, futile, pointless and useless, but I've just gone over the last 3 months of my PL history(where I've done a lot of tiny-tot trades) and I must say nope, it's actually amazing what can come of it if you keep at it.
Just checked the compound calculator...0.5% every day for 60 days = 34% return.
(calculator returns, NOT MINE!)
Anyone know any hedge funds that did 34% the last 90 days?
Anyone? :P
No, really, I'd be interested to find out more about them =)
Do you think any one would bother to read a journal from me ??
A journal is for yourself, not for others, Tiki.
It's for reflection, clearing and focussing your thoughts and putting in words what's only just a feeling at first.
Don't care about others in regards to your own trading - find your own truth. As has been said before
There are two nice posts on that trader mindset stuff btw which get nauseatingly repetitive on the one hand, but which turn out to hold a lot of truth once you actually "get somewhere" on the other, found em on the weekend:
Just for pastime reading, I of course directly went and made trouble over there lol
My bad ;p
Btw, wiz. About AUDCAD. If that's to rise, you know what that means, right?
Buy AUDUSD, buy USDCAD
Hehehehehehhehehe....Hey, wait I already got that covered! ;p
Looking for a nice retrace on AUDUSD..wouldn't 0.8950 and 0.9 be shweet?
And @raczekfx: yes, of course I know the VWB daily fibs *g*
My early PF days were littered with them...someone else was using them, too...I think it was Habeeb...then they up and died/disappeared ;p
I stopped using them as they were too "inhibiting" and found EW and projections a lot nicer ;p
But they coincide with things pretty darn well! Especially the 4h tunnel fibs...the daily ones are powerful, too...mustn't underestimate the "moving rubber bands" at all...just already have 99% of my chart unreadable as it is!
So no go for me ;p
Less is more...oh boy, am I ever the wrong person to use that phrase lol... :P
("you" in this post once again used as "one" = generalized "you")
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterFM
People like SL, Swami and Rockrat seem able to do it and still focus on their trading, so I suppose it suits a certain sort of organised person.
Did you just call me organized? Hoooooooboy
Are you SURE you've seen my journal? LOL
I've never managed to really properly post my trades...I've found reflection on what ails me and hinders me much more important than trying to figure out what's wrong with the trades.
It's the trader that has(or had? been getting better) the problems here
And it's not that I manage to do it at the same time - I try to keep me from gambling by posting, which actually works well sometimes ;p
Also a good reason to analyze charts more in depth which in turn is good practice AND can lend new insights...
But to have it for summing up pips, that just feels so much like nonsense....especially since the pips are so irrelevant. The % made is the interesting part. And you don't need to increase pips...you need to improve yourself. The trader...
All the journals keep focussing on making sure everyone sees their pips and pip counts(no offense at this point to you Stevie!!!! you're certainly not the one this is aimed at..)....sure it's nice, but you can actually have configurations where negative pips make money and positive pips have you net negative...yes indeed...so what good is it?
In some documentation i was reading the other day it stated that before one can use Fib projections you need to make sure your Elliot wave count is correct and conforms to the "rules".
I find Elliot wave subjective at the best of times, so was wondering how everyone else does it ? Do you attempt to do find out which wave you are on before you draw them ?
Also when constructing your projections and retracements do you draw your lines through the close or the extremes i.e. the highs and lows, of price action.
Interested to hear others thoughts on this.
Regards
Jurgen
Hey Jurgen...oh my, prolly my fault :P
Well, "we" really don't do EW and FEs here usually...just price action...I'm a bit to blame for bringing in all those FEs and projections since EW is a hobby of mine, nothing serious
As for normal fibs - I always draw them from a swing low to swing high when we're rising and vice versa
Check out some beginner tutorials on the web or the beginner section here on FF or on various FX intro sites, they're everywhere...google is your friend (until they become the next Microsoft, devour us all whole and enslave us for eternity by holding all our data ransom - which they are working hard towards).
And BTW... for all you Base150 folks, here's a little treat... ... take a look at 4H and look at the "first time back" strategy and compare that with the Fib confluence on the 1H...
Wrong forum side Mr Trend :P
But really EVERYTHING is between 2.0140-2.180.
Vegas or bust I say.
No idea WHY cable constantly gives me 250 pips to then subsequently take 200 away again, but oh well.
If I get a long setup in that area I am gonna go for it, too.
Similiar target(s), as mentioned in the PF on the GU discussion and in my journal.
positive daily bar is shaping up for loonie and eur/cad, as crude oil retraces from its high.
Could it be a prelude to lower oil prices...
Did some "forecasting" on oil late July...
That'd be so sweet if I end up being even close to right...although I admit, I cheated, I gave myself +-20$ leeway ;p
Nobody seems to like oil anymore..shame....it's eminently chartable if you use at least weekly ;p
I'd trade it if I still had it :P
Bit like EURGBP, bloody mess on anything lower, but doable on higher...
As for cable...can't we all work together! :P
As for EURAUD - I've been shorting it but in turn also shorting AUDNZD...so...I bought AUD...I sold AUD...I bought EUR and I bought NZD...great...now I'm confused! ;p
EURAUD has a very spooky "every 200 pips roughly some s/r" grid it appears...roughly at least...oh well. Loss of 1.62=>1.6 is my current idea..if it happens...
AUDNZD 1.15 / 1.14 would be nice.
0.75 about to be hit on NZDUSD even as the majors are suffering heart attacks...exotic behavior, eh?
Hm. Perhaps I should have better put this all in my journal...apologies..
Trade taken on 1hr, should be closed on 1hr timeframe as well.
One of the reasons for exit could be back to tunnel on vegas1hr, 50fib and TL confluence....
.
I think I probably woulda tried to held it at least until a 4h PB or better..but what am I saying, I was long all along ;p
Just wanted to say it's now past basically almost all of my "tolerance" levels..meh...not playing nice. Same thing as happened on USDCAD if anyone remembers(1.08 I believe it was) - TL, doji/PB => drop.
--
USDX made a pin bar yesterday at a gigantic projection of mine - had me a weeeee bit worried. Closed out 60% of my cable longs(remainder stopped +0) a little bit below of where I began the week, but for all the pain cable has caused, at least my rantings about USDCAD and EURUSD are getting a go after 50000000000 CluelessNBC and Doomberg and analysts and whatnot said "USDCAD is the best sell now more than ever, the USD is dead meat, 1.50 EURUSD is coming tomorrow, you will all see..."
I've said it before - when these people say sell, look to buy. They talked up Oil to 100$ and Gold to 1000$ a few days before both lost 30-50% total value..can't get more reliable forecasts than these...just invert most of what you read and you'll be alright ;P
Soooooooooooooo....USD rising, exotics diving, JPY looking robust...who submitted my stock index chart to Soros? Come on, admit it...someone musta put the $$$ greed flashes in his eyes and started the exotic selling :P
I'm just sitting here, asking myself: retrace to some solid s/r or beginning of the great unwind part 2?
Hm. this is really what normally goes in my journal...
I'll just copy it to there, too...if it's okay to keep these musings out here, too?
... and 2.0195/0205 is where I would consider taking partial profit and look for opportunity to go short. It's also around 50fib of ret.
This is only my inexperienced mumbling though, so please pay no attention...
If USDJPY pins on daily things will get interesting.
114 has been bought 4-5 times now and I am starting to see an inverted HNS there as well.....I blame Habeeb who kept saying that whenever he wanted something to rise ;p
(I've of course no idea, but I've taken to spiting raczekfx lately so he stays firm in his decisions on trades and can keep making them pips) ;p
And 4h PB on kiwi BUOB stuff on AUD and and and.. :P
Dunno. Things up here are really minefields...we're THIS close to breaking to new highs on AUD and that really nice article I wrote to go up in flames
Really admire your swift and terrifc cable trades lately, wishing I'd have done mine with more gusto, but I'm so deathly afraid to miss the "final rally" that I daren't play the field more....dang.
Okay, now I feel married.
Great.
Thanks! :P
(attaching that wannabe-wish-it-were-HNS-thing I mentioned)
When I saw this post this morning price was below strong resistance (it was @ 0.8700). Now it has broken, or at least is strongly trying. What made you think she was gonna break this time?
Anyway, great Call!
I was THIS close to correcting you (thought you mistakenly read AUDUSD and wrote that one's levels)then realized AUDUSD = AUDCAD since USDCAD is = 1
LOL oh this is genius. I just realized what this means!
Don't know if I'd take that pin...I'd rather wait and see if we break through the 116 or 113 area...
Oh, I won't. I was just following up on the 1h PB in traffic GJ post raczekfx did as he asked where things would be going and I said up :P
And up they went :P
Yes, GJ and UJ are a curse whereas EJ gave a super weekly IB and nicely executed a breakout from Jim's "pyramid windup" pattern, the same we witnessed on GBPCHF on the 13th July 2007.
Yes, I still remember that day and the posts back then and me subsquently starting to babble about 2.5.
Well it only got to 2.4963 and I was shamed. Did ride a good portion of it though even though I missed the IB play.
(As I was again later on in late August after the DBLHC didn't even get back above 2.45 and I was expecting that run to 2.5 still. Dream for that has been put on ice for now)
Hmz.
I am also not taking UJ since I already took 114.40 long(roughly the time 1h did a BUOB) which is now supplied with a pretty small stop and risk is minimal. Was just a bit of gambling here, the usual pizza risk and trying to see if the DJI was still linked to UJ. Guess it is.
No idea for how long EURGBP is gonna go on ruining GBP.
"How long shall it kill my profits / While I stand aside and look / Ooh, some say it's just a part of it / We've got to fulfil the order book / Won't you help to sing / These songs of forex / Is all I've ever had / Redemption song...until the taxman comes along".
I'm fighting this myself...after all it is a weekly pin - not sure why I am trying to trail stops on the hourly...probably because my positions are insanely large (as usual). haha
Well I am long AUDUSD and I am long USDCAD...so I guess I am in this trade as well. (Anyone remember everyone not trusting that USDCAD bar after all those "burns" before? Dito EURCAD?)
Had 0.8750 as the AUDCAD breakout level, parallel to 0.8700 AUDUSD I guess.
Now it needs to hold on retest => takeoff.
I'm also in Kiwi, so I hope raczekfx doesn't eat my stops as usual :P
Now sometimes there is a delay in processing an orderanyone had an experience like this before?
Finspreads used to take MINUTES, too ;p
Going to Oanda was like waking up in wonderland..instant execution on everything....until the spread widening came
But to be honest? Hasn't been a factor in over a month now...and I sometimes even traded before/after news...(when trading charts the rest just becomes so...forgettable...you don't even notice except for sudden jolts around 14:30 my time..)
As for your AUDCAD - I expect you'll have gotten away with it and been lucky.
You might at least CONSIDER reducing the "insane risk for insane profits so I can be rich by next Friday" amounts to something that won't have your knickers in a knot in these very situations
Not trying to stop you from getting rich, but from going insane in the process
It was an observation...not recommendation
You can always take a bounce off 114.60..
I just saw this and no matter how much I rubbed my eyes...it kept rising.
Wouldn't buy JPY just yet.
We got 40 minutes to make a PB out of this. Come on folks, let's go!
Keeping in mind this is all parallel to Deutsche Bank giving warnings about 2 billion lower earnings estimate next quarter, constantly bad news from the states, etc, etc...stock market's seem oddly and blissfully unconcered or unaware of all this...guess it's buy as long as the buying's good.
I am still sticking with this PB from Monday... but tonight moving my stop down to 2.0232.... still not to BE, but at least not a risk of so much loss as stop above the PB.
Target still the ma or bottom of the trangle... which ever comes first...
Hm.
Well, anything goes currently, huh. Not an easy moneymaking market anymore....or am I missing the obvious simple setups?
Hey seeks get your tl's and extentions on this will ya
Don't have enough historic data on EURCAD :/
But there's a fun channel / TLs on USDCAD
Works best drawing these in hindsight, doesn't it :P
But at the very least that underside retest retrace PB USDCAD is making isn't curve fitted
I still think one should be pretty darn careful with shorts at these extreme levels...it's barely 23.6% of the last fall.
If at all I'd consider a small TF setup or a a break entry with lower risk than usual - but then again I don't like USDCAD anymore anyhow..so - meh.
Still waiting for something useful on weekly and monthly for using any sort of proper position :/
I am much more watching exotics, EURGBP and GBPUSD...been a bit off my game the last 3 days though...make tons of pips here, lose a ton of pips there...bah!
BTW - If USDCAD is supposed to drop, and wiz's AUDCAD supposed to rise like mad - then AUDUSD will have to skyrocket pretty darn hard for that.
Please note the bar has not yet closed.
YIKES - just had big bad lightning&thunder outside...pray for me and my pc!
Yeah dude. I don't remember too much about it now, it was a few years back, but it happened more or less like this. I was sitting there (I can't remember whether there was already a storm outside or whether it was the first flash that got me) but I remember seeing this burst of white light infront of me just like it came right out of my computer screen. Anyway, a few seconds/minutes later I opened my eyes and I was lying on the floor and this massive crash of thunder struck overhead. I was totally fine but my internet went down and when I got a friend to investigate he opened my modem and showed me the inside and it was burnt to a cinder.
Sign from God. No forex for you! Also he wants you to live a salt, bread and water life, away from all technology. Heed the call before thou be strucketh with a bolt that ringeth true.
Well, of coarse your PM to me was correct... however I did not get to read it before I lost my Pin trade... I had already as you mentioned, moved my stop down for the day... Now GBP has gone up... But I went short again at top of the channel... with a very tight stop right above the channel line.
I believe it's gonna break to the upside.
Considering how far we've already moved against the USD for the day I wouldn't short anything with less than a big 4h PB and even then only on break and even then I'd have doubts.
We're all victims of our convictions. I spent 2 weeks trying to go long during the sideways / move down phase and paid in time and money, and you I believe are now trying to get the market to still go down.
We both have to move past some of our own stubborness I think :P
Attaching a way things could have gone by taking "all setups" on daily and not playing clever(not directed at anyone!) and closing, but allowing the stop / PA dictate things.
You'll see it gets very little profit initially, but what if any of the TL had broken down? You woulda been in all the way.
This is back to our old debate of closing out early vs letting it run even on risk of +0.
I've now read 6 or 7 articles citing reasons why England is in incredibly bad shape, big trouble, end of yield curve, in need of making cuts, running into housing disaster...
Should I have added 0.5% risk for every story I read onto GBPUSD longs? ;0
Well, all will be revealed in 15 minutes, I guess :P
Abandon all hope all ye who enter here..DJI 100 points from 14k, GJ on the brink of breaking out, EJ just under 164, EURCHF almost touching 1.66...
As usual - anything goes. Best kickoff spots for shorts, technically significant s/r borderlines for longs...what "odd" "coincidences" this market gives us :P
Should I have added 0.5% risk for every story I read onto GBPUSD longs? ;0
Well, all will be revealed in 15 minutes, I guess :P
As usual - anything goes. Best kickoff spots for shorts, technically significant s/r borderlines for longs...what "odd" "coincidences" this market gives us :P
Aaaaaaaaaaaand it's Tiki Power 1 : SeekingLight stubborn hopes for GBPUSD longs 0
Retrace to bounce or daily Pin Bar in the making?!!?? Stay tuned for the next SL knockout(literally) right here on sports errr J16 TV ;p
I can make (or lose) the same in 25 pips of movement, in a couple of hours time, that I can in 300 pips of movement using daily charts, and I have to wait longer and get fewer setups.
.........and now we have two people advocating "Get rich quick in FX on the 5m-1h"
Wiz has traded what, 4+ years?
Joshdance has actually flown around the world to learn how to scalp...
I don't doubt there's gigantic sums on small timeframes - I just doubt anyone can do it.
But what I don't doubt that it's highly dangerous advocating it since my bet is that a lot of people will just go "demo shmemo, these guys said 2000%! I want that, too, and not demo pips! Heck, I can be rich in no time! Now, what MAs did he say again...where's that 5m chart..."
:P
Dunno, I just think that when saying these things you mustn't ever forget your own experience and backgrounds - and then contrast to WHY Jim says these things...for people STARTING OUT, and LEARNING these things...you can't assume having watched price ticking in front of your eyes for years is anywhere near the same place as someone still starting, struggling to even make sense of what's going on on daily...
Yes I am a spoilsport and a conservative bore, but I'm not arguing your two posts one bit - I'm just trying to lend perspective.
It works specifically for the two of YOU.
Which is enviable and pretty amazing.
Whether it's recommendable to just about anyone, that I don't know.
Just Mr. Scaredycat's 2 cents
P.S. Wiz maybe we can say daily works for you in theory - would you trade it like you did 1h. So in effect, you've got to have mastered the trade management aspect one way or another first - it's just in your head and discipline whether you can get through applying it to the bars labeled 1D instead of 1h and vice versa
care to elaborate your trading style/system? thanx before
...and here's the first < 100 post customer..
I shoulda placed a long on "expectations towards this end", I'd be starting to see pips now! Maybe we'll even get a breakout! :P
Also @
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeachBum
wiz..............here's the first trader who thinks "2000% in three months" sounds REAL GOOD!
PS.............could you forward me a custom indicator and EA for your system. Thanks!
And it appears Mike went long with me
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Numbers like that draw people, and would immediately draw some individuals to go right for the 1 hour and take substantial risks.
So, people, remember: the wiz has had to indulge this torture for over 3 years, several destroyed accounts AND had to be hit by lightning first. DO YOU REALLY WANT THIS FOR YOU!
i dont know if anyone metioned or noticed it before - but as there are 6 4h in a one trading day we kinda have 6 day trades in a week, and as i noticed the most traded 4h are those in the middle of the day (IBFX MT4 - GMT+0 , hope i am not wrong) as i see it, the other thing is that we all know that Monday is pretty weak, and most of the time Tuesdays are retracment days, while wednesday - the middle of the week - is the most traded day, most of the time..
thurdays and fridays, are eithere continuation or the ending f the move that occured on tuesdays and wednesday
i might be speaking rubbish but i would like to hear your comments fellow traders - what do you think of that?
I just know I don't like Mondays (not closing out completely on Mondays ended up costing me 3 trading day's worth of hard work getting back to the same peak had I closed all out on what I had Monday twice now...no idea why that is..)
Oh dear..okay, let me try and answer this best I can..keep in mind it's late here and I'm getting tiiiiiired so my feeling for "tone" might be a bit off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoshDance
Could you state what you're really trying to say here?
Well, from what I understand you had professional person to person training?
If so, then that was what I meant/was referring to(experience, live tutoring => certain requirements).
Quote:
Are you trying to say that people can only consistently make money trading timeframes like 4 hours or higher? Hopefully this is not what you're trying to say, as many people do just that already.
I think I said the opposite and also mentioned what it takes and made it clear there was a difference to starting in FX and moving on as you are more and more advanced.
Starting to think you felt more insulted than understood what I was trying to say...my point was basically the same as Mike made after me - if you're starting it might be more well paced not to have 5m or tick charts whooshing by if you barely can distinguish the chart patterns as it is, but instead should learn slowly and carefully until you have enough confidence, experience and skill to move on and a foundation / basis on which to experiment freely with.
Quote:
I think anyone willing to take such a lemming-like, herd-following attitude will never make money regardless of what they do
The point was to save beginners from blowing accounts. After starting out by trying not to have your words twisted, it's ironic I find myself in the same spot.
_I_ think anyone willing to believe they can have 0 experience and trade 5m charts profitably without any experience, background or practice and by directly trying live is brutally willing to endanger his money.(notice: this is in no way addressed to you personally)
If you want to twist my words I'd go for: I am trying to have people keep their money first(capital preservation), and get rich quick on risk of going broke a couple of times first last. This includes both timeframes and position sizing for me(and yes I realize you never said "people go and get rich quick, NOW!"...but talking about how terrific things work on 5m tempts folks -> responsibility issue I will come back to later).
Nowhere and not once did I state it impossible to trade small timeframes. I've posted 15m charts on this very thread before, know that FXJarhead makes his living off small TF and that Jim basically lives on the small TF as well.
Quote:
until they start thinking for themselves
Quote:
. I take NO responsibility for anyone losing or making money by listening to an ounce of what I say.
And that's what I felt was the problem and why I posted.
Quote:
I don't even trade with real money, and it's a good thing, because I've lost a lot.
Even if I were to ever offer specific trade advice with the intention of someone following it, anyone who followed it would be a fool to follow a loser.
Quote:
But if someone does decide to put a 34EMA on their chart, go to a 5m TF, and look at things, and trade off of it, what of it? Perhaps they will lose money, and if it's a lot, they would have lost it anyway, since it's their fault for overleveraging;
Was just trying to spare people having to go there(losing money, going broke) first...
Quote:
Or perhaps they will make money, and discover a method that suits them and their style, instead of blindly accepting a blanket statement that seems to be some kind of Gospel Truth, when in fact no such thing exists.
Could very well be, never ruled it out. Just is a question of how likely this is for someone with no experience vs someone with a few years, e.g. or other differentiations.
Tried VERY hard to make a clear distinction between starters and advanced traders and individual backgrounds and I find this can be clearly read in my post...however, interpretation, as always, is subjective.
Quote:
Anything is recommendable to anyone, not that I made any (can't speak for wizard, though I don't think he was making a recommendation either)...
No, but it's all about perception and posting these things publicly will inevitably have certain effects on others.
It is of course an individual choice whether to bother about the possible outcomes and results of what one posts or not, so this is completely your own decision as it's a free forum, just realize that I've my own reason for trying to do what I personally believe is right as well.
My sole agenda is to spare people the big 0 in their account.
Quote:
that's why taking personal responsibility is so important. The lack of taking personal responsibility leads to placing far too much emphasis on things people say, especially on a public internet forum where 99% of the people who make recommendations are not profitible themselves, despite appearing that way through the veil of anonymity, and where many people who seek to offer enlightenment to others often lack it themselves.
Very true and a big dilemma indeed.
Also makes me realize time and again how dangerous it can be to say something as simple as "It will go up" versus saying "I believe it could rise from here"....some people read "it will go up" and press buy. They seriously do that. Even from people they know nothing about. Boggles my mind.
You seem to be someone who in turn then says "good riddance, that's their own responsibility" and I agree - to a point.
I just believe one doesn't have to additionally "help them along" if one can avoid it. Lord knows I'm guilty of having probably done so unwittingly tons of times in my own past.
I'm trying my best not to do this.(I'd feel responsible - and this is where our difference in perspective lies in I believe)
In closing...
I find it odd how a post of mine which I personally perceived so clear and quite differentiating ends up as a "blanket statement" and "lemming mentality"...
Apologies either way if you felt I offended you. We just have different perspectives on things while basically agreeing on most of the core points I guess..
Good question, are the charts screaming out "buy USD" anywhere except on the carry cores (USDJPY, USDCHF) to anyone? :P
Turns out yesterday's GBPCHF IB (also with a TBL I think, more power to the low) along with GPBUSD's IB would probably have been a good idea
Market is still very "synched"...EURUSD had an IB, GBPUSD, GBPCHF, NZDUSD all IBs....everyone is still a LEMMING to the DJI it seems like.....almost like a.....HERD..... ;P
Hm, theres a 1h PB during the 2-4 dead hours between NY close and Asia...the daily bar will close as a bullish bar in 90 minutes here(albeit right at/below s/r), the 1h PB is 33 pips big on the pair that is GBPCHF, the daily bar being 270 pips(less than 13% of the daily bar if my head math serves me right).
USDCHF is closing near today's high, GBPUSD is near today's high. Both BUBs so far. GBPCHF is GBPUSDxUSDCHF.
Is this 1h PB short GBPCHF something worth putting real money on?
And raczekfx would probably think:
Cool, that 1h PB at the place I've been waiting for, time to show SL what's what!
... I thought you'd know me better by now SL .. and I didn't post those chf/gbp, g/j and other charts for fun....
I'm a 'touch' man.
Your wife must be one happy gal indeed!
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e.g. 2.3810 was long TP and trigger for short at the same time (check the same chart in my journal for clues)..... oh I see now, there is also 1hr pb now..
"He's got that magic touch"
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all right, a quick look at u/j, e/j, g/j and back to a cellar... Ice wine is almost ready.
I am deeply humbled and always amazed how well you can do these things. Have been since I first saw your posts here.
This is why I am so loathe to short GBPUSD. No, it hasn't broken above 2.03 yet, and no, there isn't a lot of room today to move up due to the old TL underside as well. It might actually end up bumpy, not sure.
But all three of GU GJ and GC made a 4h PB at the same time(after a 1h PB as well) on this spot here(missed the 1h PB, that woulda been one I woulda taken for several reasons since I was expecting a dip back before trying to break that TL, so really because it is my current plan).
Trouble is, the PB wasn't after such a big fall, so I don't know how much juice we'll get from it. But you got to dare to dream...
Speaking of dreaming. I guess after "Northern Rock" this must look like a lunatic's work, but I wouldn't constantly be going long if I didn't think there'd be at least a slim chance of this happening.
IF the TL goes. IF we move above the lower blue marked FE .618 area. IF we don't get another great stock market crash. IF EURGBP gives back some more. IF....well you get the idea.
I play by the rules - manage the trade on daily (since I took it on the daily TF) but I decide to get both to BE.
And down we go. I bet you anything this touches off my stops and then rises. I am going to walk away with nothing on this pair. I would actually like to bet money on this with someone.
Sounds like one of my late AUDUSD entries - two days of +-40 pips and I end up closing it 10 pips below another position which had a 0.8810 TP before the two days of wobbling
For me, it's all about entries...for Mike it's all about exits ;D
If you got "THE" entry then the middle stuff can do what it wants if you got a set target in mind (that's currently what I'm trying to do on cable the last 2 weeks), but if you enter in the middle...well, it's gonna be hard.
Your AUDCAD, well, you know how breakouts can be. Break, retest, takeoff. So the dilemma is closing for little and not getting a retrace or not closing but risking a failed breakout / too deep retrace...
Life's a b... and then you die :P
But cable is doing quite alright, let's go break that TL puuuhleeeeeeeeeez!
This just in: reports of cable's death have been greatly exaggerated.
Now for a weekly and daily close above 2.0315
I really wonder what BS the fundamentalist army will drum up to justify this sudden revival of GBPUSD.(after 2-3 weeks of saying it is so doomed and dead)
I expect the names "BOE" and "Northern Rock" will be used among other excuses :P
They'll post it after the break, we'll be in from the IB / 4h PB ;0
I vote for C.
if it breaks to the upside, it should slow down around red dwarf...
Unless you really see dj shooting through 14k, I would not bet on red dwarf too much....
enjoy the weekend
R
Seems that lightning thing really is gonna be a running gag for a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon g time wiz. :P
As for GBPxxx........am I ever glad to be riding the unencumbered major, the "real" horse
USDCHF for GBPCHF? Smashable due to USD selling.
USDJPY for GBPJPY? Smashable due to USD selling AND potential for another panic on the markets.
GBPUSD? Has a few hundred pips delay in this USD selling frenzy if you ask me :P
But might just end up being in a different type of thing altogether...but I will remain dreaming until proven wrong / awoken.
A possibilty to go long again on CHF soon ??? Or we break the trend line here...??
Didn't I write just some days ago about looking at the charts and seeing whether or not they make one feel USD bullish or bearish?
Same answer now
"Bottom pickers will be cotton pickers" - at least without strong daily / weekly PA. ;p
No setup = no trade
But my looking long USDCAD nagging still remains after seeing some xxxCAD crosses.
There's no pleasing you - trying to buy USD on USDCHF, wanting to
sell it on USDCAD....decide! Love or hate for the USD! ;p
I'm looking for the exact opposite direction setups, at least on the CAD crosses..actually saw one on Friday..which I botched due to impatience ;p
(all patience had already gone towards GBPUSD hehehe)
Ah well, there's always daily left. Not sure whether I'll put any more "real" risk on anything CAD however, it's just not very rewarding...literally. I guess I just don't "understand" the CAD.
Hi,
I need some advice from you chaps ............I'm approx 100pips up on NZD_USD late friday night and am trailing my stop, what do you guys do over weekends to avoid the possible gapping from close Friday to open on Sunday night, do you close your stop to say 50 pips......or do you just take your profit on Friday and close the trade ??????
Or just leave all as is ?????
Cheers Mimas.
Heya Mimas.
If you decide to keep a longer term(more than 12 hours hehehe ) trade then know why and where you expect things to go / what areas are decisive "to watch out for" spots. Then you have a plan of action and a way of dealing with things should they materialize.
I've not yet had any paranoia about this whole "the world could end on weekends" thing any more than it happening any other two days in the year.
It helps of course not to have your whole life and fortune resting on the open trades - which is how it sometimes seems to me it must be for some people when these FUD things are proposed.
If things gap - FX gaps are usually closed. So I don't really see the big scare either way.
However yours is not a high probability trade and certainly not one that most people around here would take.
Been in it since last week.
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Even if it was in a better position , where you have taken it is not the safest place - as taught by James16, because you took it before it broke the low of the Pin Bar (or the DHLC).
I'll throw up a chart or two...saw the same DBHLC formation after the doji, but one must keep in mind this is after a strong upwards move, so chances of this doing much might be slim...
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You see it is not just the PA bar formations that matter, it is where they form in relation to other recent price.
This is true.
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Neither the PinBar nor the DHLC are actually at the swing high.
We were at the high of the last 15+ months for EURGBP which is a rather ranging / oscillating pair for the most part so for me it was at least worth a small risk shot at that 4h ret PB in the 4h chart.
Hey Seeking,
Thanks very much for your reply, it helps put thing's into perspective reading what you guys have to say....it is appreciated.
You're welcome Mimas
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Can I ask Seeking you say " If things gap - FX gaps are usually closed. So I don't really see the big scare either way."
I'm guessing you mean the price usally retraces back over the gap once the market opens.... is that how you see it....???
Yes.
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Had a plan in place at the entry with a first point being 7551 (previous to last months low strong Support line there).
Had the same s/r.
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Next is at 7770 where there is also a strong resistance line
0.7700 and any round number is something I watch for as well, but I want/expect this one to go to a new high eventually. 0.77-0.783 wouldn't be a bad start.
The pin is in serious traffic, with its high not even really testing resistance, and you're selling into a major uptrend. So, not even a consideration, in the remotest sense, IMO.
I havent even finished reading the thread (currently on page 260) but I just want to thank everyone who contributed to this awesome thread, especially jim, seekinglight, mike, wizard, razldazl. I started trading with PA last week.
So far I have made 3 trades, one is still open. All in the Black.
Heya Chris!
Congratulations
Seems you're a quick learner =)
I'm glad to see you're taking things one at a time.
The PF very much still exists and a lot of us are all still around, trying to make it grow in it's diversity and become stronger every day.
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By the way, it's so funny looking back to page 1xx and seeing people complaining about the length of the thread. It took me three weeks or so to get to page 260 and I still have a long way to go but this thread is one of the most valuable resources to any forex trader.
And already you've set yourself apart in a good way from others
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edit: I can't write pms in this forum!? I wanted to write you a pm seekinglight but I am not allowed to do so. Hmmm
Hm, it could always be my inbox was full at the time, but normally PMs should work, there's no block or anything turned on here.
Feel free to shoot me one whenever =)
You take care as well and good luck on finishing the surely interesting read,
Why am I constantly buying the pairs everyone keeps posting bearish setups and guesses for :P
(GJ, AUD..)
I feel like a freak! (prolly coz I am )
German reunion holiday today and I'm up before 9 am for FX while everyone's passed out cold still from boozing their heads off...so much for the dream job fx trader ;p
(freak part: q.e.d.)
GJ / UJ IB starting to break to the upside...maybe GBP will tag along out of sympathy
Alex, keep in mind you can't draw the TL if Oanda's weekend "dots" are still in the chart. You can disable them in preferences so as not to get your chart distorted by a price lag that doesn't exist..
We are still holding the GJ TL / channel here(chan a bit on the creative side).
There is no confluence, since it is up so high, so it is risky in an strong uptrend.
One could also add: in an uptrend look to buy dips, in a downtrend look to sell rallies.
Usually fares better.
Who knows when we'll get "the turnaround"...(uptrend changing back to downtrend)..currently the rate/yield remains unchanged the second highest in the world I believe..so I suspect a lot of folks will like being long and getting paid rather well for doing nothing else for a bit longer ;p
LOL I feel the same. I'm adding to my Aussie positions even as everyone is posting bearish setups...
In your case the dreaded aussie-cad :P
Here is what's keeping it's headspace currently limited imho...but could pop like a cork eventually...question for me is on which pair in the real pair world - AUDUSD or USDCAD?
Okay, I admit, I lost overview of the situation - did I post the original chart of this one from the 25th on this thread?
Just wanted to post an update since I like to come back to some thoughts / charts sometimes, see how they fill out or not.
It's not valid per se since it is sort of "in the middle of things". This did not prevent this from working as a simple TL breakout / channel break trade though
Notice how price retested the TLs from above before taking off.
really nice to see people posting trades they actually took
Attaching a chart and then the 4h of it
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and their reasoning for entry
PA as labeled
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and exit
..exit?
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rather than just posts of potential setups...
True, it is a bit dangerous to post stuff ahead of time - just was a similiar topic elsewhere.
Not trying to give any sort of "signals" but trying to discuss how this stuff works instead...
No 5m jockeying on these though, sorry
Also not saying which trades I personally took out of those / added to / skipped, just coz I'm mean like that.
We really shouldn't be telling others how to trade nor be giving any direct trade advice.
This thread is to discuss and teach the PA patterns - not to influence people's trading! (important!)
("personally, that looks iffy to me / I probably wouldn't take it / I'd be worried about factor x y and z" ...whatever...but, er, not "do x / don't do x" - we're already pretty much pushing it by discussing stuff ahead of time..)
If you equal "don't take that pin" to "oil will reach 80$" then I really can't help you.
I could just as soon say GBPUSD will reach 3.0 and EURUSD 2.0. Or both 1.0.
Where exactly with that am I telling anyone to do anything by saying "Price will reach value x"?
I say price will reach x - neither when, nor how nor why. It's expressly clear that I am only voicing my opinion of future price development - eventually. As to when or how - this is open. Advice whereas to trade from or how to trade - there was none. (I've simply reiterated with that what I posted in late July in the oil thread)
I'd read it / check it out if you did. Would probably be very interesting.
Just be careful to post things well AFTER your entry :P
Or you're gonna end up with 50 posts a day from people following the +1000% guy saying "took that signal, too! hope it works! cheers!" and then 50 pips to the downside later, probably 40 pips after YOU left the trade already "account starting to look really bad, should I close it now? plz helpl"...
this is not the psychic hotline, its a place to learn.
I've said before I, too, have most likely been guilty of this far too many times as well. If one wants - use Oil as an example or 500 other things. I could think of at least 2 other occassions.
Everybody please realize: no matter how many badges or posts we have, we're all just kicking crazy around - WE ALL REALLY DO NOT KNOW!!!!!!!!
We're just as clueless about the market as everyone else.
All PA can help us to do is to get an edge over randomness and gain a chance to make us some profit.
Please do not take anyone's comments here about pairs, directions, prices or anything in this regard as any sort of reliable trade advice.
On the daily you have price reaching a cluster of EMA's - the 89, 150 and 365 almost all on top of each other. These coincide almost directly with the 61 fib of the whole swing down...
The hourly forms a pin and....
It's count your money time.
I thought you wanted to stay in this for the moon rocket ride :P
It's funny, reading that post it sounds like a lot of things actually happened...I look at my hobby chart and it just shows a lot of thrashing :P
Goes to show how different life on the 1h can be :P
Noticed the 1h doji here as well, but it's 23 pips big on my feed (nose/body ratio wasn't even 1:2 (9 and 14 pips) so still in doji land for me..) and for a pair that has 140 pips daily bars that's nothing I'd put my money on(putting aside it was right ahead of NFP)...even on the trendline it's now spent 4 days hammering against...
Noticed the 1h doji here as well, but it's 23 pips big on my feed (nose/body ratio wasn't even 1:2 (9 and 14 pips) so still in doji land for me..) and for a pair that has 140 pips daily bars that's nothing I'd put my money on(putting aside it was right ahead of NFP)
Wow, this almost looks like Dec2007 daily MiniGold....
Siiiiiiiince you mention it....
I wrote over in Habeeb's journal about this "commodity" synchup and why I thought it was and what the reason is things move the way they do:
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IMHO:
same thing with all commodities - the USD rose.
Think of it like this: let's say 1 unit of wheat or anything else has a set value.
Let's say 1 Real World Value - 1 RWV. This in turn is expressed by xxx amounts of USD to correspond to this RWV in terms of buying power / value.
If the currency used to denominate / determine this 1 RWV weakens in buying power / value, you in turn need more if this currency to still equal the same 1 RWV unit. So if the dollar weakens, you need more of it to still equal 1 RWV(you can "buy less" with it so you need more). If it strengthens the opposite is true.
That's why I believe USD bear markets often - not always - coincide with commodity bull markets.
One can find out whether the commodity or the USD is doing the moving by simply using a comparison / conversion back to EUR for example. If you calculate the amount of EUR needed to buy 1 RWV at the old price vs the amount of EUR needed to buy 1 RWV now, you can see whether the EUR amount changes or not. If it stays the same, then the change was only in EURUSD / USD itself. If it changes, then the underlying commodity value in turn gained or lost some "real" value.
At least that's my way of trying to force some logic unto it
And even if I am lightyears off the mark - the effect of this still seems to hold true in market prices, so, hey, whatever sounds nice and explains the world to me ;p
And if anyone wants to they can just check the USDX (or look at EURUSD parallel to the commods)...
I always hear it's really countries and the CAD and AUD and one thing ties to another and all that blah blah blah(like: Oil prices drive USDCAD / Gold and AUDUSD or similiar smoke and mirrors).
I say no, it's all about the USD for over 80% most of the time...obviously decorrelations do occur, but this is the most solid, stringent logic to me outlined above..
And what a surprise then that if it's really the USD that drives both USDCAD and Oil, that they should move in tandem. But saying one is the reason for the other is a bit silly to me. I could just as soon claim Europe is a superduper Gold rich Klondyke, because the EUR correlates so well with Gold often...yea, right...or for fun just put the 1h Oil and EURUSD chart next to each other...would mean Europe is really the next Saudi-Arabia then, yes?
Just my world perspective however.
Shows in how many things everything is tied to the USD however, if you ask me =)
P.S. Wiz you overlooked a 20 pip oil PB that ran 230 pips, you're getting sloppy!
Hi all..
Here I'd like to test if some of Jim's teachings reached my dizzy mind.
I read through this forum untill today and just started studying in the PF.
I am using a UK spreadbetting firm for charts and trading and the bars might not reach the exact same numbers as yours.
Now.. am I right in my analysis of this chart?
Heya Oloman,
for it to be a "proper" Two Bar Low the low prices would preferably have to be identical. I know there are compromises sometimes, but let's not start with them :P
On my chart that makes the second bar an Inside Bar.
As for the 50% and s/r, yes, agreed, the prior bar highs show potential for an s/r flip there and it has already been tested as flipped s/r => support that one time(18th Sept 2007) before the rise started.
So we will watch this area and if we go as low as there and get a reversal setup(DBLHC, BUOB, PB or an IB after a BEB that breaks upwards) for example, we could take that to get back into the main trend.
Now I discovered something else.. 2 double confluence fib levels..
The lower one still matches a support from previous tops + the MA line.. but how to know which one will be hit and which one will hold and send the price
up again?
or should I look for some price action confirmation to go long at the red confluence lines?
Yes. Try not to enter anything "blindly".
Always wait for a price action setup to form and then in turn to be confirmed(a PB is "confirmed" to actually be one once it breaks, dito a BEOB/BUOB/DBHLC/DBLHC etc) when you're starting out practicing these things.
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Was it a valid short entry after the TBL?
Well I don't really trade TBL / TBH breaks at all.
Only if there's a ranging / consolidation box and price makes it clear that this is an important spot, I might be tempted to wait for a close above / pullback, then enter.
Pure breakout trades always have the smell of daredevil-dom to me - they just don't feel right. I preferably want to be in BEFORE a move starts, not in the middle or last third of it.
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Questions questions.. well, I'm greatful for any comments. Am I on the right track or am I looking at the wrong picture alltogether...
You're looking at the right picture. Just be patient and wait for the setups and when they come, you'll be glad you did.
Considering EURUSD was in a strong uptrend and is very reluctant to give back ground I would not go short EURUSD at all - (it appears you're a bit desperate to be trading? "need to be in"?) but instead I would wait for a solid re-entry into the longer term trend from a good spot with confluence.
You can of course always trade any which way you want, but going WITH the majority of the market usually makes things easier and carries you sooo much further :P
Ok, that's it from me today, got to take care of household and things now...enjoy the PF stay, it's gonna be interesting for sure =)
A tip from me to all. I can recommend Snagit as print screen program. very quick and clever program to edit a picture taken from any section of your screen. (I have nothing to do with them apart from using the program)
/Oloman
You can press ALT + PrntScrn (print screen button on keyboard) and paste to any imaging program of your choice for a free and quick alternative.
Without holding down ALT for the whole screen.
I just use IrfanView(freeware) - I press ALT+PrntScr, open IrfanView, press CTRL+V and presto, the image/captured window. Cut and crop as needed, save as.
This is of course only for things that don't have their own save function.
Even when I was on a spreadbetter I still charted and traded off Metatrader. Spreadbetting charts S U C K. They're only made in nice, soothing looking colors because the brokers want to distract from their own suckyness, imho :P
Thieves, robbers, liars, the lot(freezes, slips, mini-account minimum, delayed quoting, requotes..think of something bad, they're sure to have or do it ;p).
Anyone going long on the pin on GBP_JPY kind of missed the boat a little as it has moved past the break but I think we are in for a move on the up.....any thought's people.....???
Stay Lucky Mimas
To be honest, taking an entry that "late" to me would have felt like buying a top.
And I spent a LOT of my lost money in my beginning time doing just that.
So mostly cured of that...I shy away from it now. Others might argue differently and yes, there ARE exceptions for this, too(strong trending EURUSD BUB + IB daily combos, okay, one might talk me into that for example if there's also another reason coming into it), but to me it always induces "fear of exhaustion close by" due to a late entry, feels like chasing, etc...
Anyhow.
Just wanted to throw up the 4h. Most arrows are simply to illustrate s/r touches, some are PBs / 2 bar reversals / 2 bar PBs.
Just felt left out with everyone posting charts :o
(there's also a trendline in there, but I wanted to stick to s/r)
The reason why so many people think picking tops and bottoms is a sure way to lose is because its human nature to pull your hand back from a hot stove. It can take many failed attempts to pick a top or a bottom and most people will stop trying after being "burnt" a number of times. Repeated losses can no longer be tolerated by their pain (equity) and morale (psychological) threshold. The top/bottom usually occurs just when most people give up trying to pick it. Generally though, if you commit, it is a lucrative practice in my opinion.
Juuuust the usual devil's advocate opinion here of course, but..
If you spend 10 tries at 10% risk going against the trend, trying to catch the reversal - what are you going to reverse it with if it takes 11 tries?
Okay, just pulling your leg given your risk profile, but even at 1% - you have several tries, if it is a strong, long lasting trend perhaps far more than anyone would care to admit. You most likely can't salvage all at +0, you will most likely take several hits.
If however you wait for a retrace + reversal back into the main trend and go with it, with a much higher likelyhood of success due to being WITH the trend, and only take the loss when the trend changes direction once, or maybe twice, before it changes / after it changes. isn't this easily more profitable, simpler and straight forward?
Of course it doesn't get as much "bragging rights" as in having been in "THE trade that stemmed the tide, yeehah!"...but for me, pondering these scenarios, I'd rather have the bigger account than the bigger boasting power =)
This is all macro / simplified, there's a whole different microcosm inside of moves inside of moves inside of moves, but just going from a generalized thought here..
The PB Mike criticized just failed to the downside. I hear he's got a lightning rod in the back yard and it's made out of pure gold! ;p (okay, obv. that wouldn't work, but bear with me here, I'm trying to make a play on the "soddin' rich" part) :P
-------
Mike - what can I say. I'm this close to printing out those examples for myself :P
Yep guys, trading against the trend can be dangerous
Dunno. If you ask me, I look at the charts and I see: first drop since June 2006. Okay, so 12 months spent waiting for a trend reversal setup that actually works(for more than a handful of pips).
Size of that down move: 1470 pips top to bottom.
Size of the move WITH the trend before it during those other 12 months before it: 2180 pips up.
Started with a weekly PB, too.
The move down before that: 1500ish pips down.
The move up before that: 2140.
In short: you get 40% more pips going long on this pair. We're trying to have an edge and chance in our favor. Going long has 40% more pips. It has had an interest rate differential of over 2%, so you not only gained pips, but you also earned swap.
Going short, you are paying for holding your position, you get less pips and there's 2 "big" downswings in 4 years, taking up 67 and 3 weeks.
So, trading counter trend on a macro scale(for this example):
-works 70 weeks out of 200+ (read: less than half the time / ~35%)
-makes 40% less pips
-costs interest to even trade
I'd include more data but my chart ends in 2003.
So you have time, swap and pips working against you.
Oh can anyone tell me how to save charts from this forum. Thanks
I think he meant he wants to save YOUR charts Mike
If so:
Just use file / save page as (or in IE it's called "Save as", you can also just press CTRL + S)... and then in the drop down box under the file type / name choose "webpage, complete" and it will not only save the page of the thread but the pictures as well.
You could also right click the image / the chart and choose "Save image as.." and save that.
I believe 1 Unit is roughly like 1 "real" item of the currency. Like 1 Unit = 1 Euro.
So 1 pip moves 0.0001 cent at 1 unit or something.
Around 14000 units of EURUSD are roughly 1 mini lot = 1 EUR per pip moved for me. My account is in EUR, mind, not USD.
As far as I can tell it usually goes:
1 micro lot = 10 cent / pip
1 mini lot = 1 EUR / pip
1 lot = 10 EUR / pip
Same thing if the base is 7.5 => 7.5 cent micro 7.5 EUR mini and 75 EUR full lot per pip.
They use some messed up calculations these broker guys...
With Oanda I just always fiddle with the exact unit size until my risked amount equals my risk % and that's that. Matches up with +-0.01% precision
(You can size as low or high as you want on Oanda in 1 Unit increments with 1 unit being that sub-1-cent-particle)
Now if they only would also let me put in "1%" directly instead of forcing me to use stupid units (LIKE I SUGGESTED almost 5 months ago by now), they'd actually be super-userfriendly. Instant at market trading yippie that'd be. But oh well.
I guess they just don't really care much about improving based on valuable, useful user input
If I say no, will I get blamed for giving trading advice again? :P
The following is not advice but my view on commodities and USD correlation:
As long as the USD dives, I doubt oil will fall, simple as that.
As for PA:
Already invalidated the pin on my feed to the upside..nevermind, that was the daily PB. You're on the 1h again...same idea about USD though.
This is what I meant - EURUSD kept going / holding steady, now look at oil(and no IT IS NOT USDCAD to blame, it's mainly the USD, but talk of War and images of burning oil fields on the news prooolly helps, too, I will admit that much):
Trading WITH the trend = usually easier + more $$$ (or, hopefully, NOT $$$, but EUR right now :P).
Sorry I don't read all the posts about oil, so sorry if this is a dumb question... but are you saying that it is the weakening of the dollar that makes the oil price go higher ???
Let's say 1 barrel is worth 1 Euro and 1 Euro is worth 1 USD.
Now let's say the USD drops.
Now it takes 2 USD to buy 1 EURUSD.
The same barrel of oil now costs 2 USD, but still only 1 Euro.
Same value, same barrel, nothing's changed, but the USD price.
I posted about this a few posts back already as I feel this is a very true phenomenon for commods and a very visible correlation.
Price spikes up above the 1.4282, then comes back down to the line. Bouncing back up.... 1.4282 now support ???
Tiki, you are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too hyper :P
Have a look at the 4h for a weak s/r that should stand out to you, what on earth are you doing on the 15m...
There'll be a retrace or there won't, don't be too overeager..
Off to shower...very curious as to what will happen with GPBUSD(evil 4h PB at high connecting TL)...I can't see raczekfx killing cable again, but then he's gone done it sooooooo many times before, he's got practice in huffin' n puffin the cable house down ;p
Pipcrawler,
I would love to see that level before we move back up again but I wonder if we will get that far down. There is fib confluence around 6680, along with a PPZ, and we have already bounced 3 times on the 4 hr chart around that area. Just offering another view point. I don't want to miss this trade.
I already had my short from the 4h PB, closed just above 1.6680.
Looks terribly messy to me now, but as long as these creative ones hold I'd be loathe to sell again.
This is the PB I meant. There was also stuff inside the channel, but that just was far too tight to trade for 2-3 pips.
This one barely went 1:1, but everything carry-ish was melting and the USDCHF suffering punishment divine, so I gave it a shot. It is NOT an A trade, it barely had confluence and I was very, very bored at the time. It was also counter trend and more a scalp than anything. The next bar already caused me to move the stop down to just above it, since it counter-pinned / doji'd.
Also please don't look at the DBLHC I painted in, that was just coz I saw it and had an urge to paint it in, not a setup, whether it'll go or not :P
It is unbelievable, I got an e-mail yesterday about a person who sells the best forex system!!!!!! I am not interested in such systems, but the first
e-book about a daily swing system is free. I thougt why not, maybe something to laugh. I can not post it in this forum because it has copyright.
He starts with pinbars, it is absolut everything from this forum, really everything. He did not even change the name, no he calls it also pinbars.
Martin Pring first coined that term I think, but I believe James has always tried to reference him and his website when mentioning this. I think at the very start of this thread e.g.
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And if we, also the NEWBES have mastered this pins then the great master will show us other price action entrys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I like it when people don't have success in FX then they sell what they have found in a forum.
This reminds me of so many people all at once right now ;p
Anyhow, I think we just had a similiar discussion in the private forum of someone doing that sort of thing, maybe it's even the same guy. Basically took what he could from the PF as well and went and sold it as his, scam advertising ("only x amount of copies, hurry!" / "such a bargain!" / "secrets!") and everything included.
Seriously, the world is full of exploitative people and natures.
I know someone who isn't about ripping people off though - anyone dare to venture a wild guess? :
Still, I guess that's how forex/the internet/people are, huh...
It's a bad bad world!
Yes, they are bearish for the longer term, but until it is broken I would play it out as a channel. This could be a great buying opportunity for a bit of pips before the top of the chanel is hit. What do you think about this?
Nice channel Banzai =)
I have a similiar one
I am soooooo looking forward to the weekly bars on most pairs =)
While I think this is a fair PB... I was hoping for some others to comment first...before I take this trade
There's a problem here Tiki...you shouldn't trade off of what others say or don't..how will you learn what works or not if you don't try it yourself?
If you're not confident enough of your trading yet to put on a trade without advice first, you should not put live money you can't afford to lose on it imho.
I have a question about oil... I continue to have in the back of my mind your posts from the other day about oil not being what is changing in value, but the dollar...
So my question is how about today ??? there was no particular movement or loss of value with the dollar, but oil price close up a lot at over $ 90 barrel... since not much movement iin currency, is it the oil this time that really changed value ???
Sorry if this is a stupid question...
Hey guys...been a bit busy fighting a resurgance of my old demons and taking care of other real world business as well. Also trying to cut back a bit on the 50 posts a day thing..
Tiki, the EURUSD has continued to rise and the USDX to drop..that the synch with Oil isn't pip for pip is obvious, but the price gets readjusted eventually.
Also the real phenomenon of supply and demand is still very much in effect.
And with Oil people also like to use it as a fear gauge on global conflict, especially if the regions have - surprise! - oil fields nearby which might light up like torches on those "surgical strikes" or whenever the people feel they're losing and may as well do the "scorched earth" thing.
So yea, commodities still do move on supply and demand as well
Not every move needs to be curve fitted a reason..sometimes people just butter on more and more contracts because they don't want to miss the wagon, price moves on, momentum acts..
Always needing to know why is something you get over real fast once you realize you just need to put an order here, an order there and watch as the thing either does or doesn't generate pips. You could care less WHY as long as it DOES in the end
I think traders eventually cut down complexity more and more and more as they progress further down the road and end up with a handful of reliable, time tested and to themselves proven ground rules, which they just reapply over and again and let the rest of the world be what it may.
Cheers everyone, hope some of you guys managed to take the trade I took the wrong side of ;P
Weekly DBHLC with 1 pip difference with is not very much for this pair. As far as I know this is an all time low so there is no resistance to the downside.
Hey, just wanted to throw a chip in again now and then...getting a cold for being silly and running around in the cold, so I'm still sort of stepping back a bit from the usual 50 posts a day
Similiar to the AUDUSD BUOB, these are the type of setups that are a no-no for me. As raczekfx already pointed out, the places you want these setups/where they work best at imho is the opposite end of a/the swing.
If you get a DBHLC reversal, it's good to have a downtrend which just corrected upwards and then shows a DBHLC / BEOB / PB (or Tiki's newfound love, the IB at s/r).
Same thing with the opposite: uptrend, correction lower, BUOB, DBLHC, PB, IB, and back into the main run.
Entering ANY "chart" at the extreme low or high just means you are hoping for price to go to an unknown place, whereas at the same time you get a really big ole stop right in the middle of things in the chart...what is price going to lean against? Where's the confluence? Where's s/r? You're already at the bottom/top of the map, how could you get any of that?
And if there's a BUOB, chances are price already sprinted quite a bit to make that in the first place, it might just get tired (me, I'm getting tired of seeing formations that give a BUOB + counter-PB on 4h by now...happens so often it's not funny anymore..then some work out and some reverse...just icky)
Sure, a strong trend will rescue you a lot of times, but why risk iffy entries if you could have been in a trade a few hundred pips lower down/up?
IMHO entering charts at their peaks or lows is chasing the market - although a lot of people might argue this (and point to books, turtles, stock operators or other random really old people that got published that seem to love the "higher prices are like totally so much cooler for buying, like" theorem) - and I believe that one wants to preferably be in when things BEGIN, not when they just might be about to end..or at least are as unpredictable as it can get.
I believe it breaks down to the old waiting / patience game again(and not wanting to feel "left out", needing to be "in"), and I understand the dilemma/problem involved..
Usually 1 waited for really good entry will usually compensate for more than 5 rushed +-0, possibly good, possibly bad outcome trades...
Just saying. :P
Right...now where did I put those Vitamin tablets..
What do you guys do if a price action setup (PB,...) works and takes of for a few pips and then comes down to your entry point lurking there for several days. Would you close out the position manually or wait for the move to take off again.
Not sure..got a chart example? Usually if price comes back on a setup I don't expect it to I end up being stopped for +0...or a slight loss if the stop is still "out there" because of allowing for some deviation..
Usually it never hurts to be an aggressive stop mover, because if you master your entries / wait for the really really right setup, there's a very low chance of being kicked back out...most of the time if you get sloshed for +0 you just weren't in at the right place..
And here's another important thing: I've noticed a lot of times when I've been too lenient with my stop and allowed a loss instead of +0 it's because I am in some messed up way "afraid" I won't get another entry into the market, EVER AGAIN. Irrational. Also I am afraid I won't ever be able to make another single good, working trade in my life and putting on risk again and over again is both work and "a risky endeavor"...
That is why it is so tempting to not move stops properly or too leniently or too late...which is why Mike's way of having a fixed criteria / mechanical way of doing it can really help solve these sort of problems(explained in his thread over in the PF).
Just wanted to write this out loud because I am DEAD CERTAIN other people make / have made the same mistake in their thinking and feeling with the not-moving-stops-behavior
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Get well soon seeking
Chris
Thanks Chris Working on it...tons of Vit C rich orange juice flowing here =)
I think getting old is linear rather than random ;p
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that got published were doing what we are doing now without the benefits of charting. It was all done on paper or mentally.
So they DID chart and DID have the benefit of charting. A thin film transistor or a thin paper over a table..it's still a chart.
A mouse click and drag or a ruler n pencil, it's still a trendline / s/r line.
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Livermore looked for price pivot areas. Darvas looked for boxes or steps
And I argued FOR using those and using these as kickoff points.
What I argued AGAINST was that some of these people are quoted as saying "oh I only buy if prices are constantly going higher hyuck hyuck".
Well, yea, because that defines a trend, higher highs, lower lows, but you don't buy THE high, you buy BECAUSE of the higher highs(because of the uptrend). And when? On dips and retraces to those aforementioned pivots / s/r areas WITH a setup.
At least that's what I try to do.
Been waiting for someone to bring up the GBP/USD PB. Looks quite good to my eyes.
Everyone always wants to sell my favorite :P
I'm still buying this until it shows me in behavior it doesn't wanna go anymore..I think we're in one of the most USD hostile environments..going with the flow seems much more effortless to me..even though there were a few weeks of simply struggle, it seems to have decided that, hey, yea, >2.08 is indeed a nice place to be :P
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Comes at the end off a good run. So it is in a prime place to signal a reversal of direction which in essence is all a pin is.
Some of the other factors that lend support to being a good as place ans any is that it is nearing the top of the weekly uptrend channel. Currently the top of the channel is sitting about 100 pips above the high of the bar, the channel is about 1000pips wide.
I got both a TL that has intersected it to cause the PB in the first place and a channel that has it's top at around 2.12 right now
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The other Pairs. I am sure most people would be aware of how many pairs showed reversal signals today. A lot of pairs had DBHLC and 2 Day PB's are visible on most charts.
Whats this all mean??
Bargains for USD sellers? ;P
Also wondering what NFP will bring =)
But I suspect we'll just keep moving in the direction we have been...and if not, that any bigger dent will just lead to renewed USD selling eventually..that's really all the market seems to be doing...since 2001
Hey SL, As a your sig says "No setup = No trade" and as a pure PB trader i can only enter on a PB so i am waiting for these when they appear. But if it doesn't break short then no trade.
Exactly!
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You will most likely be right and the juggernaut of USD sellers will continue. but i would like to see a short correction so i can get back in at the end off a pull back on a nice PB.
Enjoy
Ademac
Yea that's the problem with these impulse waves...people just chuck on position after position, and the more do, the more feel like missing out, and the more the chucking gets fierce :P
Just means that retraces are few and far between during those surging moves usually...which is great if you're already in from ages ago, but is really annoying if you missed that ONE bar that woulda done it and are sticking to / trying to stick to a system.
I think that no matter whether or not it takes a few more days or not, the USD will probably get at least one last push..before it gets angry and pushes back :P
We'll see...got a lot of room left for USDCAD, a few hundred for GBPUSD, and EURUSD, oh heck, I don't know, but USDCHF we're still not at all time lows ;p
Best of luck with this tricky slickster that's the market =)
Some of the "names" - who used to be complete people before they got downgraded to names ;p - do that(caution people when they start out), because Jim has the advantage of over 20 years of practice at his disposal which enable him to use his discretion to decide whether he feels a pin might work or not, even if it doesn't have the most perfectly balanced proportions. Someone just starting to dabble in PA most likely will not(sorta would contradict the logic of just being a beginner).
I don't believe anyone "advises against Jim's setups"(However anyone is always free to have their own mind and volition and choose to simply disagree with whether they personally feel there's a trade they would or wouldn't take, no matter who is pointing it out or describing it).
I do however believe I personally would advise against starting to learn something by pretending I am at least as good as the guy doing it for 20 years. Instead I'd say practice the clear, obvious setups first, go with the most obvious and flawless seeming ones(i.e. even noses on pin bars, identical highs / lows for DBHLC etc etc etc), don't try to curve fit and interpret charts to one's liking and most of all, don't trade it with real money until you know(and have proven to yourself) you can actually turn a profit with it.
Lastly: I believe most of the "names" here will be the same you're gonna find inside of the PF =)
Since 1h has been catching on so much I thought I'd counterbalance a bit with daily bar sanity ;p
Even assuming one were to blindly straddle all IBs(I ignored the fake move towards 118 but sold near there instead for reasons posted in journal / PF), still woulda done okay here.
Even after losing the first trade after the IB broke up and moved down again, you woulda caught the break downwards or woulda taken the BEOB. Then 250+ pips down, gap => either exit or ask yourself what you want out of the trade.
Then another IB along the way, moves up, reaches 50%, gets smacked down with a BEOB and breaks even or loses 10-15 pips. Another IB after the BEOB, triggered both down today.
Main trade was the IB rebreak / BEOB down. Around 5 times risk to be had(stop size would have been the IB, BEOB was a bit bigger, bit less reward then), bit more, bit less depending.
Some didn't work so well, some moved quite alright. Again, without even adding much s/r lines or anything, just pointing out the bars and threw one fib and TL on.
Trying to put more thought into it one woulda said: okay, what do I know about things?
1. It's USD selling time since 2006. Okay, so short trades preferred.
2. Entry on retrace and near s/r might have more room to go than entering after things already fell(yea I know, doesn't apply for USDCAD hehehe)
So the IBs near the TL I drew (for which philmcgrew would prolly spank me) look best to me. The other stuff, the counter-trend ones, meh, I don't know.
Usually the trend rescues trades far more than it makes sense to try and dodge and outtrade it. Learned/learning that the hard way over and again
Tricky part in this tight spacing is exits - but that's always the toughie, isn't it.
Not many counter setups, so it'd be mostly stop moving or closing when gaps show. A lot of time is spent in tedious small small if you use stops to kick you out, but there's been an ongoing discussion about how this in turn will catch the big big big moves the few times that they do occur...been a point of debate both in the PF as well as between phil / soultrader and others over in the 1kT room I believe.
AUDNZD finally moved back down a bit, helping this one along...still has a lot of catching up to do, but might not get to. We'll see.
Some okay setups here if one ignores all the articles written about how since the DJI is so low it really should be 500 pips lower :P
All that unwind thinking stuff has proven a lot more hindrance to me than helped. Trading the chart "stupidly" woulda been so much nicer than waiting for case x to happen while it never does.
Congrats SP,
Everyone, I will be gone for about a month. I need to travel through Argentina to Paraguay by bus (30+ hrs) for business and visiting friends.
Hello! I'm Matt, I'm pretty new to forex and trading. I would like to thank james16 for sharing his secrets with everyone . Using the james16 method, I would like to know if entering this with a low would be a good trade on the GBPJPY.- well there's no way to be sure whether it would be good or not.. but based on the DBHLC would this be something people enter using this method? I'm trying to get a feel for the whole thing
Hi Matt.
IMHO you already missed the two entries of the last two setups, both IBs (sorry to say that).
Tiki says hi
Today's bar will end up as a BEOB and most likely either test or break that upper s/r line. Then I believe things get interesting.
Even though the BEOB might be considered a setup to me it would feel akin to chasing the move that's already in progress from the IB break.
P.S. Mike remains the fastest Postslinger in the Wild FX West ;p
P.S. 2 - another reason I wouldn't like taking GJ this "late" is that I am already in USDJPY - the real reason the crosses are hanging heavy. If the majors were to show bearish setups on their own, okay, maybe take them as well(but does anyone want to be LONG USD right now???). But the crosses lately have had a VERY stubborn mind of their own and trading USDJPY has been HEAPS more rewarding, as that is the true carry core imho.
DBHLC on this pair. We are in a downtrend and have broken previous resistance around 114.00. I'll most likely wait for a retrace and enter short then. Any opinions on this?
Okay, everyone, I am going to be very mean for a second now because this problem bugs the living crap out of me :P
(Bugs me because I believe it's bad for your bottom line to exhibit this behavior.)
What I am seeing is: once the market's already gone and done a 2-500 pip nosedive, everyone suddenly sees bearish setups. Well, yes, that's because the chart is already bleeding red.
But entering at the break of the giant bear stuff is imho the same as if you go back to MA crossover land and get two EMAs to cross after a 500 pip dropoff. Obviously they will cross - and obviously you will enter AFTER the move in which you should have been in BEFORE it occured.
This is why I always say I don't like break entries - I like to be in BEFORE the actual move happens. And it doesn't have to be retrace entries, either, I meant the actual move as in on the a little bit bigger picture.
The USDJPY setups I posted just a day or two back would have done fine. They triggered, the chance was missed and now that the move that was to happen is over, everyone is regretting missing the pips and wants in still.
No.
You need to be daring to risk your money BEFORE the big moves happen and enter the setups that will kick the market off into the big moves.
This is where the money is.
Chasing after things after they've already up and gone is just not going to be very prudent. And I know this dilemma. It stems from being too afraid to go in BEFORE around 300+ pip blowouts confirmed that there will indeed be strong moves.
What I mean is - chasing comes from being afraid and lacking confidence to be in for the move before it happens.
This is also what I mean with the dare to dream analogy..you need to see the stuff happening before it does, not see it and then wish you would have been in..
This is one of the "getting there" cliffs one has to manage to jump off to progress down the road(eurgh I just turned my own stomach for using two different metaphores in such a terrible way...but it's understandable what I mean I think)...it's still hard to do for me, too, but one has to be careful not to be led into chasing when one does shy back from entering in time and then sees the boat has left the island already..
Not saying everyone's a bad boy and doing it all wrong - but instead trying to put focus on a phenomenon that has a lot to do with trading psychology, which I still believe is the make and break of this all.
Just wanted to use these posts as an excuse to point this out again
Sorry if I sounded mean :P
As always - this post is really meant for myself / addressed to me. (I find this is a good thing as I have the talent to make / have made basically almost every and any mistake you can on the way to realization on a lot of issues - so there's always something to talk about.)
james16 Chart Thread
.....omg
:. Hope ya'll caught it too.
seems like a week to be short the Yen....
? I've been out for sometime, so I'm sorry if it's a joke or something ...
